6 ms·

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War: Take Him Seriously

71 points by jseliger 4y ago

GalenErso 4y ago
We have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has made the determination that war with the United States is an acceptable price to pay to pursue a conquest of Taiwan. We also have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has calculated that the United States won't risk nuclear war to save Taiwan, even if doing so may be the only way to deter China from invading. If I was president, I would hold a prime time address from the Oval Office to announce that any Chinese attempt to conquer or blockade Taiwan will be met with nuclear strikes on the Chinese mainland, including civilian targets. I would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes. And to get the point across, I would detonate a nuke in atmosphere over an empty stretch of ocean between Guam and Hawaii, and release the footage for the world to see. Yes, this would be insane. But Xi's advisers may have determined that they can win a conventional war with the US over Taiwan, and that the People's Liberation Army Navy could keep the Strait of Malacca free from USN interference. Xi may, correctly or not, have concluded that only such a threat could deter him. And that a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat. We have to be prepared for the possibility that China will gain control over TSMC's foundries and use them to blackmail the West and any other unfriendly countries into submission. If this is correct, then there are only three options: copy TSMC's capabilities in the West, destroy the foundries during a conflict, or deter China from invading. Or deny them a victory if they try. But I don't want to hear "China wouldn't dare", "there's only a small window of opportunity where the weather allows an amphibious landing", "It would be the largest military operation in history", etc. China may have calculated that they can overcome any logistical hurdle. They're not stupid. They know all of this. But at some point, the hardliners will lose patience and demand results. And the hardliners happen to be in charge.
- firstlink 4y ago
  > a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat A US president is irrelevant. What are the elites willing to do?
- morelandjs 4y ago
  Your hypothetical actions are insane and you’ve just lost the support of Europe. Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster.
  - GalenErso 4y ago
    > Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster. If China tries to invade anyway after these threats, I'm asking the military aide who follows the president at all times to open the football and I'm transmitting an order to Strategic Command to begin nuclear strikes on China. But that shouldn't happen because China is supposed to be deterred.
    - sacnoradhq 4y ago
      You would kill everyone in the world over Taiwan?
  - kelipso 4y ago
    It's so insane it'd lose support everywhere including Latin America and a massive portion on the citizenry
    - GalenErso 4y ago
      If Latin America is happy to live in a world dominated by China but where the United States has been crippled because of permanent chip shortages, that's their right. But as president of the United States, I would be bound by oath to protect the interests of my country first and foremost.
      - kelipso 4y ago
        Mmm the President has to consider medium to long term geopolitical consequences that would be detrimental to US, which is what we were talking about, and not just do blustery responses.
      - 4y ago
- ianburrell 4y ago
  First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.
  - GalenErso 4y ago
    > First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. The US can't sign a treaty with a state it doesn't even recognize. And recognizing Taiwan as an independent country - a basic prelude to signing a treaty with that country - would cross China's red line and compel them to invade. Also, the bread and butter of any such treaty would be to extend America's nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. You can avoid the legal complications if you issue the threat in the first place. > Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Reread my post. I would threaten mutually assured destruction if China invades. That should deter them. If it doesn't, may god have mercy on us all, because those ICBMs are being fired. A threat is not credible if you're not prepared to make good on it. > Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies. The US should first try to break the blockade through conventional means. If that fails, nukes are on the table.
    - ianburrell 4y ago
      It doesn't make sense to announce nuclear threat now. For one, the US doesn't recognize Taiwan and doing so would provoke war. For another, China can wait for President that is less insane. It makes a lot more sense to wait until China threatens invasion and then recognize Taiwan and sign defense pact. US repeating its support for Taiwan would be sufficient now. It makes a lot more sense to gradually escalate instead of go to nuclear threat. It should be reserved for nuclear use. The US and Taiwan could defeat China conventionally.
- arroz 4y ago
  You would be a horrible president lol
- fspeech 4y ago
  You do realize that the difference between Intel and TSMC is marginal? Without TSMC your phones and laptops (if you buy the new MacBooks) will run a little hotter/slower/heavier (to get the same battery life). Sure in a market economy businesses are won on the margins. So in a sense Taiwan is a much greater threat to US chip dominance than China is. If chips are all that you care about you are risking your entire country to protect your true chip nemesis. The more believable your deterrence is, the less likely the industry will come back to the US. Quite a paradox.
- FpUser 4y ago
  >" would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes" I think at this point those millions will tear you to shreds.
sanitycheck 4y ago
Unfortunately for everyone, over the past few years it's become more clear that Xi is not as smart as the leader of a gigantic autocracy really needs to be. If he'd been patient about Hong Kong's transition and "one country two systems" he'd be most of the way to reeling in Taiwan by now, instead of prepping for war and cosying up to Putin. Then there's the Covid strategy. Zero Covid made perfect sense before vaccines were available and allowed most of China to carry on as normal through 2020. Sticking with that policy all the way through into late 2022 with no sign of an exit strategy was pure stupidity though. Then there's the breathtaking petulance of dropping all the Covid restrictions suddenly with absolutely no mitigation, as collective punishment to the whole population in retaliation to widespread protests. Xi really does not like to look like an idiot, but everyone there must now surely have suspicions that he may be one. Total control of the media and the Great Firewall have allowed the Party to manipulate public opinion pretty effectively, but I'm not entirely convinced support for the government could be maintained if Xi starts a war. Hopefully Xi feels the same way.
- slaw 4y ago
  Covid restrictions were dropped suddenly and nothing happened despite western media saying billions people will die. There was no time that zero covid strategy made any sense.
  - sanitycheck 4y ago
    Western media didn't say billions of people would die, they said hospitals would be overflowing and unable to cope. Which is exactly what's happened, based on what I've heard from a couple of people who work in Chinese hospitals. Should we believe the official Chinese line on number of Covid deaths this year?
    - slaw 4y ago
      Hospitals were overflowing and nothing happened.
      - 4y ago
cjbenedikt 4y ago
https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/joint-resolution-for-annexing-the-hawaiian-islands#:~:text=House%20Joint%20Resolution%20259%2C%2055th,annexed%20by%20the%20United%20States https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/joint-resolutio....
firstlink 4y ago
> be good at fighting DAE think this kind of translation is evidence of subtle racism? I find myself reacting negatively to such simplistic English, and reflecting poorly on the speaker, until I remind myself that it's the translator's choice of words I'm reacting to, not whatever the speaker actually said. Moreover, I find translations like this are more often applied to certain languages than others, especially Chinese, and especially in this article. Supplemental theory: this very direct and literal style of translation may be common in the political sphere, which is perhaps why I associate it with translations of Chinese in particular. However, in this case the subtle racism or at least tendency to make Chinese leaders seem less intelligent does far more damage to recipients of these translations than to the original speakers, insofar as it leads them to underestimate their opponents. Or I may just be overreacting to a poor/style-lacking translation.
- fisf 4y ago
  I am rather concerned about the message, than the particular choice of words. Because the message is downright authoritarian and militaristic, aggressive -- no matter how eloquently it is formulated, it is inherently crude.
  - kelipso 4y ago
    We must be prepared to defend ourselves at any time, talk softly and carry a big stick, department of defense, etc etc
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  > I find myself reacting negatively to such simplistic English, and reflecting poorly on the speaker, until I remind myself that it's the translator's choice of words I'm reacting to, not whatever the speaker actually said. It turns out that you'll find this on globaltimes and chinadaily, and it is basically a literal translation of what was said/reported in Chinese that just doesn't come off very well in English. I think it is more of a cultural translation that isn't being done rather than any actual bias in the translation. And doing a cultural translation wouldn't be very accurate with what was said.
Mizoguchi 4y ago
It's the strategic advantage of a one-party regime. Unless they get side-tracked by the looting of their own country like happened to Russia under Putin and his cronies, the Chinese can quickly iterate on their mistakes, correct them and move forward. The CCP's complete disregard for human rights, environmental issues, copy rights and international law, accelerates this progress even further. It is pretty unbelievable where China is today from just 20 years ago in terms of their geopolitical influence, not just as a manufacturing and trading giant shipping furniture and apparel. Meanwhile in the US our incompetent members of Congress routinely get deadlocked on inconsequential issues letting our adversaries sprint through an open field where it is now very difficult if not impossible to tackle them. If the CCP says they are preparing for war it is because they are ready for it Unlike Russia, they are always two or three steps ahead of what they make us believe.
m0llusk 4y ago
Xi keeps talking about preparing for a war years in advance, though. It is unclear how long exactly he will last. The war in Ukraine has shown that the rest of the world will quickly raise sanctions which would be devastating for the Chinese economy which is dependent on trade and sells most products to the US and EU.
nortonham 4y ago
"preparing for war" That's what a military is meant to do, be prepared to fight. That's true all over the world. China's military budget is still smaller than that of the US's. Further, our military budget is partly a product of the corruption and cronyism between defense contractors and the US gov't. That's also one (of many) reasons why we wouldn't win a war with China imo. The US gov't would be better served working on the numerous problems we have at home. Obviously that won't impress anyone at board level at various defense contractors.
- connor11528 4y ago
  Budget size doesn’t mean much when costs in China are 10x lower to produce the same thing in the USA
datavirtue 4y ago
Next logical step after disappearing your term limits.
tragomaskhalos 4y ago
Again we see that irredentism is the great evil of our age, combining as it does a toxic nationalism with a total disregard for the peoples whose homes and lives are slated to be steamrollered by invasion.
- senttoschool 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - whack 4y ago
    The Iraq invasion was not morally justified and an idiotic decision to boot. But on the evil spectrum, invading to annex/colonize a territory is far worse than invading a dictatorship, deposing the dictator, and giving power back to the native people.
  - dang 4y ago
    If you keep taking HN threads further into political/nationalistic flamewar, we're going to have to ban you. Please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35362421 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35362421. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
KHRZ 4y ago
So why don't they just recapture Vladivostok now that Russia is weak? Why do they prefer the little island specifically?
- yks 4y ago
  Presumably cause they could use Russia to stir trouble elsewhere and it’s not like Russia will ever be strong anyway.
- yummypaint 4y ago
  Russia is already on its way to becoming a vassal state to China, they only need to stay the course.
- FpUser 4y ago
  You are forgetting this little stash of nukes Russia has. It is safer for China to be "friends" with Russia and get their resources at discount.

71 points by jseliger 4y ago

We have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has made the determination that war with the United States is an acceptable price to pay to pursue a conquest of Taiwan. We also have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has calculated that the United States won't risk nuclear war to save Taiwan, even if doing so may be the only way to deter China from invading. If I was president, I would hold a prime time address from the Oval Office to announce that any Chinese attempt to conquer or blockade Taiwan will be met with nuclear strikes on the Chinese mainland, including civilian targets. I would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes. And to get the point across, I would detonate a nuke in atmosphere over an empty stretch of ocean between Guam and Hawaii, and release the footage for the world to see. Yes, this would be insane. But Xi's advisers may have determined that they can win a conventional war with the US over Taiwan, and that the People's Liberation Army Navy could keep the Strait of Malacca free from USN interference. Xi may, correctly or not, have concluded that only such a threat could deter him. And that a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat. We have to be prepared for the possibility that China will gain control over TSMC's foundries and use them to blackmail the West and any other unfriendly countries into submission. If this is correct, then there are only three options: copy TSMC's capabilities in the West, destroy the foundries during a conflict, or deter China from invading. Or deny them a victory if they try. But I don't want to hear "China wouldn't dare", "there's only a small window of opportunity where the weather allows an amphibious landing", "It would be the largest military operation in history", etc. China may have calculated that they can overcome any logistical hurdle. They're not stupid. They know all of this. But at some point, the hardliners will lose patience and demand results. And the hardliners happen to be in charge.

firstlink 4y ago
> a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat A US president is irrelevant. What are the elites willing to do?
morelandjs 4y ago
Your hypothetical actions are insane and you’ve just lost the support of Europe. Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster.
- GalenErso 4y ago
  > Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster. If China tries to invade anyway after these threats, I'm asking the military aide who follows the president at all times to open the football and I'm transmitting an order to Strategic Command to begin nuclear strikes on China. But that shouldn't happen because China is supposed to be deterred.
  - sacnoradhq 4y ago
    You would kill everyone in the world over Taiwan?
- kelipso 4y ago
  It's so insane it'd lose support everywhere including Latin America and a massive portion on the citizenry
  - GalenErso 4y ago
    If Latin America is happy to live in a world dominated by China but where the United States has been crippled because of permanent chip shortages, that's their right. But as president of the United States, I would be bound by oath to protect the interests of my country first and foremost.
    - kelipso 4y ago
      Mmm the President has to consider medium to long term geopolitical consequences that would be detrimental to US, which is what we were talking about, and not just do blustery responses.
    - 4y ago
ianburrell 4y ago
First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.
- GalenErso 4y ago
  > First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. The US can't sign a treaty with a state it doesn't even recognize. And recognizing Taiwan as an independent country - a basic prelude to signing a treaty with that country - would cross China's red line and compel them to invade. Also, the bread and butter of any such treaty would be to extend America's nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. You can avoid the legal complications if you issue the threat in the first place. > Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Reread my post. I would threaten mutually assured destruction if China invades. That should deter them. If it doesn't, may god have mercy on us all, because those ICBMs are being fired. A threat is not credible if you're not prepared to make good on it. > Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies. The US should first try to break the blockade through conventional means. If that fails, nukes are on the table.
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    It doesn't make sense to announce nuclear threat now. For one, the US doesn't recognize Taiwan and doing so would provoke war. For another, China can wait for President that is less insane. It makes a lot more sense to wait until China threatens invasion and then recognize Taiwan and sign defense pact. US repeating its support for Taiwan would be sufficient now. It makes a lot more sense to gradually escalate instead of go to nuclear threat. It should be reserved for nuclear use. The US and Taiwan could defeat China conventionally.
arroz 4y ago
You would be a horrible president lol
fspeech 4y ago
You do realize that the difference between Intel and TSMC is marginal? Without TSMC your phones and laptops (if you buy the new MacBooks) will run a little hotter/slower/heavier (to get the same battery life). Sure in a market economy businesses are won on the margins. So in a sense Taiwan is a much greater threat to US chip dominance than China is. If chips are all that you care about you are risking your entire country to protect your true chip nemesis. The more believable your deterrence is, the less likely the industry will come back to the US. Quite a paradox.
FpUser 4y ago
>" would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes" I think at this point those millions will tear you to shreds.

sanitycheck 4y ago

Unfortunately for everyone, over the past few years it's become more clear that Xi is not as smart as the leader of a gigantic autocracy really needs to be. If he'd been patient about Hong Kong's transition and "one country two systems" he'd be most of the way to reeling in Taiwan by now, instead of prepping for war and cosying up to Putin. Then there's the Covid strategy. Zero Covid made perfect sense before vaccines were available and allowed most of China to carry on as normal through 2020. Sticking with that policy all the way through into late 2022 with no sign of an exit strategy was pure stupidity though. Then there's the breathtaking petulance of dropping all the Covid restrictions suddenly with absolutely no mitigation, as collective punishment to the whole population in retaliation to widespread protests. Xi really does not like to look like an idiot, but everyone there must now surely have suspicions that he may be one. Total control of the media and the Great Firewall have allowed the Party to manipulate public opinion pretty effectively, but I'm not entirely convinced support for the government could be maintained if Xi starts a war. Hopefully Xi feels the same way.

slaw 4y ago
Covid restrictions were dropped suddenly and nothing happened despite western media saying billions people will die. There was no time that zero covid strategy made any sense.
- sanitycheck 4y ago
  Western media didn't say billions of people would die, they said hospitals would be overflowing and unable to cope. Which is exactly what's happened, based on what I've heard from a couple of people who work in Chinese hospitals. Should we believe the official Chinese line on number of Covid deaths this year?
  - slaw 4y ago
    Hospitals were overflowing and nothing happened.
    - 4y ago

cjbenedikt 4y ago

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/joint-resolution-for-annexing-the-hawaiian-islands#:~:text=House%20Joint%20Resolution%20259%2C%2055th,annexed%20by%20the%20United%20States https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/joint-resolutio....

firstlink 4y ago

> be good at fighting DAE think this kind of translation is evidence of subtle racism? I find myself reacting negatively to such simplistic English, and reflecting poorly on the speaker, until I remind myself that it's the translator's choice of words I'm reacting to, not whatever the speaker actually said. Moreover, I find translations like this are more often applied to certain languages than others, especially Chinese, and especially in this article. Supplemental theory: this very direct and literal style of translation may be common in the political sphere, which is perhaps why I associate it with translations of Chinese in particular. However, in this case the subtle racism or at least tendency to make Chinese leaders seem less intelligent does far more damage to recipients of these translations than to the original speakers, insofar as it leads them to underestimate their opponents. Or I may just be overreacting to a poor/style-lacking translation.

fisf 4y ago
I am rather concerned about the message, than the particular choice of words. Because the message is downright authoritarian and militaristic, aggressive -- no matter how eloquently it is formulated, it is inherently crude.
- kelipso 4y ago
  We must be prepared to defend ourselves at any time, talk softly and carry a big stick, department of defense, etc etc
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
> I find myself reacting negatively to such simplistic English, and reflecting poorly on the speaker, until I remind myself that it's the translator's choice of words I'm reacting to, not whatever the speaker actually said. It turns out that you'll find this on globaltimes and chinadaily, and it is basically a literal translation of what was said/reported in Chinese that just doesn't come off very well in English. I think it is more of a cultural translation that isn't being done rather than any actual bias in the translation. And doing a cultural translation wouldn't be very accurate with what was said.

Mizoguchi 4y ago

It's the strategic advantage of a one-party regime. Unless they get side-tracked by the looting of their own country like happened to Russia under Putin and his cronies, the Chinese can quickly iterate on their mistakes, correct them and move forward. The CCP's complete disregard for human rights, environmental issues, copy rights and international law, accelerates this progress even further. It is pretty unbelievable where China is today from just 20 years ago in terms of their geopolitical influence, not just as a manufacturing and trading giant shipping furniture and apparel. Meanwhile in the US our incompetent members of Congress routinely get deadlocked on inconsequential issues letting our adversaries sprint through an open field where it is now very difficult if not impossible to tackle them. If the CCP says they are preparing for war it is because they are ready for it Unlike Russia, they are always two or three steps ahead of what they make us believe.

m0llusk 4y ago

Xi keeps talking about preparing for a war years in advance, though. It is unclear how long exactly he will last. The war in Ukraine has shown that the rest of the world will quickly raise sanctions which would be devastating for the Chinese economy which is dependent on trade and sells most products to the US and EU.

nortonham 4y ago

"preparing for war" That's what a military is meant to do, be prepared to fight. That's true all over the world. China's military budget is still smaller than that of the US's. Further, our military budget is partly a product of the corruption and cronyism between defense contractors and the US gov't. That's also one (of many) reasons why we wouldn't win a war with China imo. The US gov't would be better served working on the numerous problems we have at home. Obviously that won't impress anyone at board level at various defense contractors.

connor11528 4y ago
Budget size doesn’t mean much when costs in China are 10x lower to produce the same thing in the USA

datavirtue 4y ago

Next logical step after disappearing your term limits.

tragomaskhalos 4y ago

Again we see that irredentism is the great evil of our age, combining as it does a toxic nationalism with a total disregard for the peoples whose homes and lives are slated to be steamrollered by invasion.

senttoschool 4y ago
[flagged]
- whack 4y ago
  The Iraq invasion was not morally justified and an idiotic decision to boot. But on the evil spectrum, invading to annex/colonize a territory is far worse than invading a dictatorship, deposing the dictator, and giving power back to the native people.
- dang 4y ago
  If you keep taking HN threads further into political/nationalistic flamewar, we're going to have to ban you. Please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35362421 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35362421. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

KHRZ 4y ago

So why don't they just recapture Vladivostok now that Russia is weak? Why do they prefer the little island specifically?

yks 4y ago
Presumably cause they could use Russia to stir trouble elsewhere and it’s not like Russia will ever be strong anyway.
yummypaint 4y ago
Russia is already on its way to becoming a vassal state to China, they only need to stay the course.
FpUser 4y ago
You are forgetting this little stash of nukes Russia has. It is safer for China to be "friends" with Russia and get their resources at discount.