5 ms·

The entire global economy is coming undone at the same time apparently. Russia, France, America, what the hell is happening to the global economic systems ? ht

The entire global economy is coming undone at the same time apparently. Russia, France, America, what the hell is happening to the global economic systems ? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/business/france-bank-raid-tax-fraud.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/business/france-bank-raid... https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-the-first-time-the-fed-is-losing-money-mortage-backed-securities-treasurys-interest-rate-risk-svb-ad92e96f https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-the-first-time-the-fed-is-l... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inflation-hit-germany-massive-strike-over-pay-cripple-transport-2023-03-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inflation-hit-germany-m... Every civilized nation in the world has ongoing economic turmoil right now. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-emergency-lending-banks-boosted-overall-fed-holdings-latest-week-2023-03-23/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-emergency-lending-ban...

mindslight 4y ago
Covid should have slowed down economies, but instead governments pumped the gas. This was the widely recognized disconnect between Wall St and Main St. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and not in any particularly predictable way because everything has been thoroughly distorted. There should have been a slew of predictable debt defaults in 2020, but after many trillions in helicopter money who knows anymore? Also the war itself puts a strong damper on international commerce. We had basically been operating in a mostly peaceful world where war was limited to US/China/Russia busting up isolated third world countries. But Russia launching a full state-on-state genocide is a severe departure from that time of relative peace in most of the world. Now we get to test the hypothesis that nations who trade with one another are disincentivized from going to war, and are about to find out how big that incentive really is.
- yucky 4y ago
  Genocide? I know we've gotten into the habit of redefining words whenever it suits us, but at some point doesn't it muddy the waters if we just make shit up?
  - mindslight 4y ago
    Oxford Languages via Google: the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group Dictionary.com: the deliberate and systematic extermination of a national, racial, political, or cultural group Merriam Webster: the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group Would you care to find me a source with a definition that doesn't apply?
    - celu 4y ago
      Isn't it more in the interest of conquering rather than exterminate and destroy? If Ukraine were to surrender, I don't think Russia would continue to kill them all.
      - mopsi 4y ago
        Genocide is a part of that. People capable of leading a country (top politicians, lawyers, academics, businessmen, military leaders, etc) must be murdered so that there is no-one to lead the opposition to Russian rule. After WW2, former leadership of countries occupied by the Soviet Union was methodically exterminated the same way. After people capable of leading a nation are murdered and prohibitions of cultural practices are placed on the remaining, they begin to lose their group identity (language, religion, etc) until they cease to exist as an independent entity. Many Native American tribes disappeared this way, for example. They weren't murdered to the last person. Instead, they were put into conditions that lead to their irreversible decline.
    - yucky 4y ago
      So we committed genocide against the Iraqi's, right?
  - mopsi 4y ago
    30 legal scholars of genocide have compiled a comprehensive report explaining how Russian actions match the legal definition of genocide: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/English-Report-1.pdf https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/English-Rep...
sethrin 4y ago
Do you think it has anything to do with a global pandemic and an ongoing large-scale war?
- zaphirplane 4y ago
  Can the affect of the Russia Ukraine war on the global economy be tangibly quantified? The oil and natural gas out of Russia is affected but I think they are finding other buyers with the price back to pre war level, Ukrainian wheat supply is affected but I’m not sure that combination is a major driver for inflation but I’m not an expert.
kadoban 4y ago
Are any of those really out of the norm? At _least_ 2 of those look like stories of a severity that happens in any average year.
sidibe 4y ago
Can't speak for the others but if USA is "coming undone" it has never not been coming undone. You can always find some badness in an economy, but by most measures we usually go by it's totally fine. GDP looks OK, unemployment has stayed low while rates have gone up, and inflation seems to be slowing a little at least. Of course there are always some concerns that opposition or others protecting their interests (VCs lately) will highlight.

mindslight 4y ago

Covid should have slowed down economies, but instead governments pumped the gas. This was the widely recognized disconnect between Wall St and Main St. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and not in any particularly predictable way because everything has been thoroughly distorted. There should have been a slew of predictable debt defaults in 2020, but after many trillions in helicopter money who knows anymore? Also the war itself puts a strong damper on international commerce. We had basically been operating in a mostly peaceful world where war was limited to US/China/Russia busting up isolated third world countries. But Russia launching a full state-on-state genocide is a severe departure from that time of relative peace in most of the world. Now we get to test the hypothesis that nations who trade with one another are disincentivized from going to war, and are about to find out how big that incentive really is.

yucky 4y ago
Genocide? I know we've gotten into the habit of redefining words whenever it suits us, but at some point doesn't it muddy the waters if we just make shit up?
- mindslight 4y ago
  Oxford Languages via Google: the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group Dictionary.com: the deliberate and systematic extermination of a national, racial, political, or cultural group Merriam Webster: the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group Would you care to find me a source with a definition that doesn't apply?
  - celu 4y ago
    Isn't it more in the interest of conquering rather than exterminate and destroy? If Ukraine were to surrender, I don't think Russia would continue to kill them all.
    - mopsi 4y ago
      Genocide is a part of that. People capable of leading a country (top politicians, lawyers, academics, businessmen, military leaders, etc) must be murdered so that there is no-one to lead the opposition to Russian rule. After WW2, former leadership of countries occupied by the Soviet Union was methodically exterminated the same way. After people capable of leading a nation are murdered and prohibitions of cultural practices are placed on the remaining, they begin to lose their group identity (language, religion, etc) until they cease to exist as an independent entity. Many Native American tribes disappeared this way, for example. They weren't murdered to the last person. Instead, they were put into conditions that lead to their irreversible decline.
  - yucky 4y ago
    So we committed genocide against the Iraqi's, right?
- mopsi 4y ago
  30 legal scholars of genocide have compiled a comprehensive report explaining how Russian actions match the legal definition of genocide: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/English-Report-1.pdf https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/English-Rep...

sethrin 4y ago

Do you think it has anything to do with a global pandemic and an ongoing large-scale war?

zaphirplane 4y ago
Can the affect of the Russia Ukraine war on the global economy be tangibly quantified? The oil and natural gas out of Russia is affected but I think they are finding other buyers with the price back to pre war level, Ukrainian wheat supply is affected but I’m not sure that combination is a major driver for inflation but I’m not an expert.

kadoban 4y ago

Are any of those really out of the norm? At _least_ 2 of those look like stories of a severity that happens in any average year.

sidibe 4y ago

Can't speak for the others but if USA is "coming undone" it has never not been coming undone. You can always find some badness in an economy, but by most measures we usually go by it's totally fine. GDP looks OK, unemployment has stayed low while rates have gone up, and inflation seems to be slowing a little at least. Of course there are always some concerns that opposition or others protecting their interests (VCs lately) will highlight.