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They are calling for a pause, not a stop. It’s quite clear that OpenAI has a significant lead over everyone else. The only other country outside the west that

They are calling for a pause, not a stop. It’s quite clear that OpenAI has a significant lead over everyone else. The only other country outside the west that even has a chance at developing something better than GPT-4 soon is China. China has a pretty cautious culture as well so it’s quite possible that a bilateral moratorium can be negotiated with them. ADDED: Even without considering X-risks, China’s rulers cannot be pleased with the job displacement risks that GPT-4 plus Plugins may cause, not to mention a more powerful model. They have trained a huge number of college graduates and even now there are significant unemployment/underemployment issues among them. ADDED 2: If you think many companies can do it, please identify a single company outside the US/UK/China with the capability to train an equivalent of GPT-3.5 from scratch.

famouswaffles 4y ago
If you counted research, open ai didn't have a lead until gpt-4 nevermind a significant one. most of this is scale. their lead is a few months tops.
- nopinsight 4y ago
  Engineering such a system is a harder challenge than many types of research. Even the mighty Google, the leader in AI research by many metrics, is catching up. Another example is Meta only finishing OPT-175B, a near equivalent of GPT-3, two years after it. —— Added to reply: GPT-4 got much better results on many benchmarks than PaLM, Google's largest published model [1]. PaLM itself is probably quite a bit better than LamDa in several tasks, according to a chart and a couple of tables here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 It's unclear that Google currently has an internal LLM as good as GPT-4. If they do, they are keeping quiet about it, which seems quite unlikely given the repercussions. [1] GPT-4's benchmark results vs PaLM: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
  - famouswaffles 4y ago
    Google was not catching up before gpt-4. That's my point lol. all the sota llms belonged to google via deepmind and google brain/ai right up to the release of gpt-4. chinchilla, flamingo, flan-palm.
    - nopinsight 4y ago
      GPT-4 was finished in the summer of 2022. Several insiders gave interviews saying they were using it and building guardrails for it for the last 6 months or so. OpenAI doesn’t publish as much as Google so we don’t really know how long or in what periods they were ahead. And there’s no organization outside the US/UK/China with the same caliber of AI engineering output as Google.
credit_guy 4y ago
> The only other country OpenAI is not a country, it's a company. GPT models on par with GPT-4 can be trained, well, by companies. You don't need nation-state levels of resources.
- zarzavat 4y ago
  Training a LLM with GPT-4 like capabilities is very hard. Most AI researchers are concentrated in a few countries. At the moment the countries with the vast majority of the expertise are US, UK and China.
  - MacsHeadroom 4y ago
    It's not remotely intellectually challenging to replicate GPT-4. It just takes a lot of GPUs, something plenty of people all around the world have access to. GPT-2 and GPT-3 are the same algorithm based on the same open source library. GPT-4 most likely is as well. You can literally fork the repo and if you have enough VRAM, cuda cores, and time, you will get GPT-4. High Schoolers could do it. Amateurs are already replicating LLaMA, which is more complex than GPT and not even a month old. (it's just smaller = fewer GPUs required)
    - mirker 4y ago
      You didn’t mention how to gather high quality data. OpenAI has never and will never release that.
    - nopinsight 4y ago
      Engineering such a system is a harder challenge than many types of research. Even the mighty Google, the leader in AI research by many metrics, is catching up. Another example is Meta only finishing OPT-175B, a near equivalent of GPT-3, two years after it. —— GPT-4 got much better results on many benchmarks than PaLM, Google's largest published model [1]. PaLM itself is probably quite a bit better than LamDa in several tasks, according to a chart and a couple of tables here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 It's unclear that Google currently has an internal LLM as good as GPT-4. If they do, they are keeping quiet about it, which seems quite unlikely given the repercussions. [1] GPT-4's benchmark results vs PaLM: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
ren_engineer 4y ago
>It’s quite clear that OpenAI has a significant lead over everyone else if their lead was significant they wouldn't have admitted to not releasing more info about GPT-4 in their paper due to commercial reasons. What ever secret sauce they have apparently isn't that significant or they wouldn't be afraid to talk about it
- NLPaep 4y ago
  Nah, it’s just easy to copy if you lay it out. It’s software.
- nopinsight 4y ago
  Discovering Newtonian's Laws of Motion were much harder than learning them from others. Were Newtonian's Laws of Motion a significant progress?
mewpmewp2 4y ago
If OpenAI as a start up was able to do it, certainly full countries can do it if they see the evidence and will invest in it.

famouswaffles 4y ago

If you counted research, open ai didn't have a lead until gpt-4 nevermind a significant one. most of this is scale. their lead is a few months tops.

nopinsight 4y ago
Engineering such a system is a harder challenge than many types of research. Even the mighty Google, the leader in AI research by many metrics, is catching up. Another example is Meta only finishing OPT-175B, a near equivalent of GPT-3, two years after it. —— Added to reply: GPT-4 got much better results on many benchmarks than PaLM, Google's largest published model [1]. PaLM itself is probably quite a bit better than LamDa in several tasks, according to a chart and a couple of tables here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 It's unclear that Google currently has an internal LLM as good as GPT-4. If they do, they are keeping quiet about it, which seems quite unlikely given the repercussions. [1] GPT-4's benchmark results vs PaLM: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
- famouswaffles 4y ago
  Google was not catching up before gpt-4. That's my point lol. all the sota llms belonged to google via deepmind and google brain/ai right up to the release of gpt-4. chinchilla, flamingo, flan-palm.
  - nopinsight 4y ago
    GPT-4 was finished in the summer of 2022. Several insiders gave interviews saying they were using it and building guardrails for it for the last 6 months or so. OpenAI doesn’t publish as much as Google so we don’t really know how long or in what periods they were ahead. And there’s no organization outside the US/UK/China with the same caliber of AI engineering output as Google.

credit_guy 4y ago

> The only other country OpenAI is not a country, it's a company. GPT models on par with GPT-4 can be trained, well, by companies. You don't need nation-state levels of resources.

zarzavat 4y ago
Training a LLM with GPT-4 like capabilities is very hard. Most AI researchers are concentrated in a few countries. At the moment the countries with the vast majority of the expertise are US, UK and China.
- MacsHeadroom 4y ago
  It's not remotely intellectually challenging to replicate GPT-4. It just takes a lot of GPUs, something plenty of people all around the world have access to. GPT-2 and GPT-3 are the same algorithm based on the same open source library. GPT-4 most likely is as well. You can literally fork the repo and if you have enough VRAM, cuda cores, and time, you will get GPT-4. High Schoolers could do it. Amateurs are already replicating LLaMA, which is more complex than GPT and not even a month old. (it's just smaller = fewer GPUs required)
  - mirker 4y ago
    You didn’t mention how to gather high quality data. OpenAI has never and will never release that.
  - nopinsight 4y ago
    Engineering such a system is a harder challenge than many types of research. Even the mighty Google, the leader in AI research by many metrics, is catching up. Another example is Meta only finishing OPT-175B, a near equivalent of GPT-3, two years after it. —— GPT-4 got much better results on many benchmarks than PaLM, Google's largest published model [1]. PaLM itself is probably quite a bit better than LamDa in several tasks, according to a chart and a couple of tables here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02311 It's unclear that Google currently has an internal LLM as good as GPT-4. If they do, they are keeping quiet about it, which seems quite unlikely given the repercussions. [1] GPT-4's benchmark results vs PaLM: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

ren_engineer 4y ago

>It’s quite clear that OpenAI has a significant lead over everyone else if their lead was significant they wouldn't have admitted to not releasing more info about GPT-4 in their paper due to commercial reasons. What ever secret sauce they have apparently isn't that significant or they wouldn't be afraid to talk about it

NLPaep 4y ago
Nah, it’s just easy to copy if you lay it out. It’s software.
nopinsight 4y ago
Discovering Newtonian's Laws of Motion were much harder than learning them from others. Were Newtonian's Laws of Motion a significant progress?

mewpmewp2 4y ago

If OpenAI as a start up was able to do it, certainly full countries can do it if they see the evidence and will invest in it.