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> The average new car price is $49k Right, meaning there are a lot of car buyers who pay less than that. In many cases a lot less. I'm one of them(!) The

> The average new car price is $49k Right, meaning there are a lot of car buyers who pay less than that. In many cases a lot less. I'm one of them(!) The last time I bought a new car I paid $11k, although that was around five years ago. Since then, over many tens of thousands of miles, that vehicle has transported our family from A to B and back again. I'd love to own an EV, but I can't afford to pay a significant premium for one.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Used car market is for people price sensitive. EVs will trickle down to them eventually as new car buyers upgrade.
akiselev 4y ago
If you don't need the extended range of a brand new battery, I think you'll be able to pick up a used one for cheap soon enough. My parents bought a Tesla a few months ago because their Leaf's battery life fell below the point where they could get to work and back reliably on a single charge and they spent months waiting for a battery replacement (they're still waiting). If their supply problems continue, people are going to start dumping more and more used electrical cars and going back to gas or to companies that can actually keep up battery supply like Tesla.
- logifail 4y ago
  > If you don't need the extended range of a brand new battery [..] My OH drove the best part of 200 miles, round trip, on the spur of the moment to pick me up at an airport late in the evening after my flight was badly delayed, she got to the airport just as I came through baggage reclaim so was at the airport less than 10 mins. That was just last week. By sheer coincidence I drove to pick her up at the same airport the week before, although at least I knew that journey was coming ahead of time. What do used EV owners with smaller and/or degraded batteries say to each other in that scenario? "Sorry, I can't come and pick you up, the car's not charged?" A car that can't manage to drive to a local airport and back in one go is exhibiting a fairly critical flaw, at least for people like us.
  - ericd 4y ago
    You can go to a supercharger after the first leg and spend 10-15 minutes there. It's really not the issue you'd think it is reading all the concern from people online. And Tesla batteries degrade much slower than you'd think based on experience with consumer electronics.
    - logifail 4y ago
      > It's really not the issue you'd think it is [..] I appreciate that there are a lot of happy Tesla owners, indeed there are two in the office I'm working in this week, their Model 3s are parked outside. I had a ride in one recently, it was fun. Not something I'd buy, though. Is it possible that EVs still aren't the good fit you think they are for a substantial proportion of price-sensitive consumers? Also, the political landscape around EVs may still be evolving. This month the EU's policy to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars in the bloc by 2035 was substantially weakened after pressure from Germany[0], and the UK's policy is as a result - shall we say - "wobbling"?[1] [0] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/24/cars/eu-combustion-engine-debate-climate-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/24/cars/eu-combustion-engine... [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban... or https://archive.is/R6zVZ https://archive.is/R6zVZ
      - rootusrootus 4y ago
        > Is it possible that EVs still aren't the good fit you think they are for a substantial proportion of price-sensitive consumers? The reality is flipped around. The vast majority of consumers, even price sensitive ones, would be better served by an EV. The edge cases trotted out in conversations like this are the exception, not the norm.
      - qdog 4y ago
        New bolt is what, 20k after incentive? I would assume in 5 years those will be cheaper used. No one is selling 11k gas cars worth a damn last I checked, either, there just isn't a huge supply of used electrics at the moment. Not that I'm telling you to buy an EV, but EV's are like 6% of (new)sales this year iirc, I expect next year is 7-8%, then 9-11%? After 10% of sales and all the growth is in EVs I expect the market to change quickly, like gas car sales to just fall off a cliff as legacy automakers really start to scramble. Well, at least in the US, seems China has a much higher EV share. Anyways, yeah, probably somewhere in the 4-7 year range from now, there will be some good options in cheaper, used EVs for people, and probably more than just the Bolt that has decent range at low end new pricing. Until their a substantial used inventory and more deliveries, sure, EVs are not attractive to the people you refer to. At least in the US.
- zamnos 4y ago
  Used Teslas are already on the market. Theres a used 2012 and 2014 the next city over from me for $25k and $34k, respectively. Doesn't seem too bad for a car that was over $100k when it was new.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > Doesn't seem too bad for a car that was over $100k when it was new. This vehicle segment has always been notorious for depreciation, look at all the stories about buying a used S-class "for cheap".
    - _ea1k 4y ago
      The YT videos of those are usually entertaining.
  - _ea1k 4y ago
    The biggest risk with those is the battery pack. If they haven't had a pack replacement under warranty since ~2016, they will have a much higher than average failure rate. Third party repair is ~5-20k + shipment costs. Tesla is ~15-20k.
  - gibspaulding 4y ago
    That still sounds steep to me. 10 years old beta technology in a category where technology has been progressing very fast so that new (<<$100k) models are far superior vehicles, not to mention the "beware the third owner hellkat" issue. I could get a brand spanking new Prius for that.
    - zamnos 4y ago
      Yeah but then have the issue known as "driving a Prius". Might not be a problem if you're in California. Hell that'll get you positive "saving the Earth" smug points. Elsewhere that might be an issue to be avoided at all costs though.
      - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
DennisP 4y ago
Tesla's Investor Day was mostly about the ways they're working on reducing costs. They won't get to $11K anytime soon, but they might manage $25K, and that's still in the low end of the market for ICE cars these days.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  They could probably get there if they wanted to, but the profitability for them wouldn't make it interesting enough, and the low end, where it really sells (i.e. outside of the USA), is crowded by Chinese car companies.
  - DennisP 4y ago
    In one of Sandy Munro's videos, he said he thinks Tesla can manage costs of $19K. The size of the market increases dramatically as you go down the price curve, which makes a $6K profit per car plenty interesting. That certainly seems to be what Tesla thinks at least, unless they were completely lying to investors about the volume they hoped to achieve.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      Why invest 200 million USD to make 1 billion when you can invest the same to make 10 billion? The problem is that expanding isn’t free, you take the most probable business first. The low end is growing rapidly, but the players already there will ensure that Tesla doesn’t make $1k of profit per vehicle. They can’t compete with a Wuling Mini EV for $4k, or whatever BYD has up to the model 3 price point.
      - DennisP 4y ago
        I don't see many Wulings for sale in the US, and Tesla is selling plenty of Model 3 in China. Tesla did take the most profitable business first. Now they're expanding to the mass market. You might disagree that it's the best strategy, but it's the one they're following; if you don't believe me, just watch Investor Day.
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
There are cheap EVs. The Bolt costs $26,500, and that doesn't seem to include a rebate. The Leaf is $28k before tax credits. Yes, they are nowhere near $11k, but I'm not sure you can buy much of a car at below $20k these days. Most people looking at EVs though are more interested in the average rather than below average prices, so the EV market tends to gravitate to the $40k-$60k price range to chase that demand.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  > Yes, they are nowhere near $11k Except in Oregon! $7500 federal, $7500 state.
brewdad 4y ago
Assuming the US market, what new car did you get 5 years ago for only $11k? That had to be the single cheapest new car in the country.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

Used car market is for people price sensitive. EVs will trickle down to them eventually as new car buyers upgrade.

akiselev 4y ago

If you don't need the extended range of a brand new battery, I think you'll be able to pick up a used one for cheap soon enough. My parents bought a Tesla a few months ago because their Leaf's battery life fell below the point where they could get to work and back reliably on a single charge and they spent months waiting for a battery replacement (they're still waiting). If their supply problems continue, people are going to start dumping more and more used electrical cars and going back to gas or to companies that can actually keep up battery supply like Tesla.

logifail 4y ago
> If you don't need the extended range of a brand new battery [..] My OH drove the best part of 200 miles, round trip, on the spur of the moment to pick me up at an airport late in the evening after my flight was badly delayed, she got to the airport just as I came through baggage reclaim so was at the airport less than 10 mins. That was just last week. By sheer coincidence I drove to pick her up at the same airport the week before, although at least I knew that journey was coming ahead of time. What do used EV owners with smaller and/or degraded batteries say to each other in that scenario? "Sorry, I can't come and pick you up, the car's not charged?" A car that can't manage to drive to a local airport and back in one go is exhibiting a fairly critical flaw, at least for people like us.
- ericd 4y ago
  You can go to a supercharger after the first leg and spend 10-15 minutes there. It's really not the issue you'd think it is reading all the concern from people online. And Tesla batteries degrade much slower than you'd think based on experience with consumer electronics.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > It's really not the issue you'd think it is [..] I appreciate that there are a lot of happy Tesla owners, indeed there are two in the office I'm working in this week, their Model 3s are parked outside. I had a ride in one recently, it was fun. Not something I'd buy, though. Is it possible that EVs still aren't the good fit you think they are for a substantial proportion of price-sensitive consumers? Also, the political landscape around EVs may still be evolving. This month the EU's policy to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars in the bloc by 2035 was substantially weakened after pressure from Germany[0], and the UK's policy is as a result - shall we say - "wobbling"?[1] [0] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/24/cars/eu-combustion-engine-debate-climate-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/24/cars/eu-combustion-engine... [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban... or https://archive.is/R6zVZ https://archive.is/R6zVZ
    - rootusrootus 4y ago
      > Is it possible that EVs still aren't the good fit you think they are for a substantial proportion of price-sensitive consumers? The reality is flipped around. The vast majority of consumers, even price sensitive ones, would be better served by an EV. The edge cases trotted out in conversations like this are the exception, not the norm.
    - qdog 4y ago
      New bolt is what, 20k after incentive? I would assume in 5 years those will be cheaper used. No one is selling 11k gas cars worth a damn last I checked, either, there just isn't a huge supply of used electrics at the moment. Not that I'm telling you to buy an EV, but EV's are like 6% of (new)sales this year iirc, I expect next year is 7-8%, then 9-11%? After 10% of sales and all the growth is in EVs I expect the market to change quickly, like gas car sales to just fall off a cliff as legacy automakers really start to scramble. Well, at least in the US, seems China has a much higher EV share. Anyways, yeah, probably somewhere in the 4-7 year range from now, there will be some good options in cheaper, used EVs for people, and probably more than just the Bolt that has decent range at low end new pricing. Until their a substantial used inventory and more deliveries, sure, EVs are not attractive to the people you refer to. At least in the US.
zamnos 4y ago
Used Teslas are already on the market. Theres a used 2012 and 2014 the next city over from me for $25k and $34k, respectively. Doesn't seem too bad for a car that was over $100k when it was new.
- logifail 4y ago
  > Doesn't seem too bad for a car that was over $100k when it was new. This vehicle segment has always been notorious for depreciation, look at all the stories about buying a used S-class "for cheap".
  - _ea1k 4y ago
    The YT videos of those are usually entertaining.
- _ea1k 4y ago
  The biggest risk with those is the battery pack. If they haven't had a pack replacement under warranty since ~2016, they will have a much higher than average failure rate. Third party repair is ~5-20k + shipment costs. Tesla is ~15-20k.
- gibspaulding 4y ago
  That still sounds steep to me. 10 years old beta technology in a category where technology has been progressing very fast so that new (<<$100k) models are far superior vehicles, not to mention the "beware the third owner hellkat" issue. I could get a brand spanking new Prius for that.
  - zamnos 4y ago
    Yeah but then have the issue known as "driving a Prius". Might not be a problem if you're in California. Hell that'll get you positive "saving the Earth" smug points. Elsewhere that might be an issue to be avoided at all costs though.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago

DennisP 4y ago

Tesla's Investor Day was mostly about the ways they're working on reducing costs. They won't get to $11K anytime soon, but they might manage $25K, and that's still in the low end of the market for ICE cars these days.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
They could probably get there if they wanted to, but the profitability for them wouldn't make it interesting enough, and the low end, where it really sells (i.e. outside of the USA), is crowded by Chinese car companies.
- DennisP 4y ago
  In one of Sandy Munro's videos, he said he thinks Tesla can manage costs of $19K. The size of the market increases dramatically as you go down the price curve, which makes a $6K profit per car plenty interesting. That certainly seems to be what Tesla thinks at least, unless they were completely lying to investors about the volume they hoped to achieve.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    Why invest 200 million USD to make 1 billion when you can invest the same to make 10 billion? The problem is that expanding isn’t free, you take the most probable business first. The low end is growing rapidly, but the players already there will ensure that Tesla doesn’t make $1k of profit per vehicle. They can’t compete with a Wuling Mini EV for $4k, or whatever BYD has up to the model 3 price point.
    - DennisP 4y ago
      I don't see many Wulings for sale in the US, and Tesla is selling plenty of Model 3 in China. Tesla did take the most profitable business first. Now they're expanding to the mass market. You might disagree that it's the best strategy, but it's the one they're following; if you don't believe me, just watch Investor Day.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

There are cheap EVs. The Bolt costs $26,500, and that doesn't seem to include a rebate. The Leaf is $28k before tax credits. Yes, they are nowhere near $11k, but I'm not sure you can buy much of a car at below $20k these days. Most people looking at EVs though are more interested in the average rather than below average prices, so the EV market tends to gravitate to the $40k-$60k price range to chase that demand.

rootusrootus 4y ago
> Yes, they are nowhere near $11k Except in Oregon! $7500 federal, $7500 state.

brewdad 4y ago

Assuming the US market, what new car did you get 5 years ago for only $11k? That had to be the single cheapest new car in the country.