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I mean, the US has 243 coast guard ships, if you want to be pedantic (ignoring the 1400+ boats less than 65' long). But yes, China keeps producing ships. I hav

by HWR_14 4y ago

I mean, the US has 243 coast guard ships, if you want to be pedantic (ignoring the 1400+ boats less than 65' long). But yes, China keeps producing ships. I have no idea what will happen in a Taiwan Straight conflict where we've escalated to open conventional war looks like. I imagine that the air-to-surface and surface-to-surface missiles will be the determining factor. But there's also a major difference. The US has a blue-water navy that can project power globally - enough power that it's an open question if the largest country in the world with the second-highest GDP can stand up to it in their back yard. There's no symmetric threat to the US where the Chinese Navy can get close enough to the West Coast have a similar threat.

dragontamer 4y ago
Taiwan is not a symmetric threat situation. US Navy will have to expose itself to Chinese missiles and Chinese Air Force, and those small Missile Patrol Boats, to defend Taiwan. China isn't thinking about attacking Hawaii or the West Coast. What China is trying to do in the near term is complete its takeover of ... well... what it believes to be part of China. And because various F35 chips are made in Taiwan, its a threat we cannot afford to ignore. (Along with all of our video game consoles, GPUs, AI Tensor processors, and other strategic level computer systems) Yes, the US Navy is unrivaled. But in a local, regional conflict... especially supported by the largest Airforce in the world (China has a lot of airplanes), and some of the largest ground-based missile forces in the world (China also has a lot of advanced missiles), the US Navy very well could lose the fight to defend Taiwan.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  I'm pretty sure the US Navy will park on the far side of Taiwan and attack stuff outside line of sight. Missiles and air force attacks I can see. Those Patrol boats will be barely different than land-based missile launch platforms. > supported by the largest Airforce in the world (China has a lot of airplanes) The US Navy has more aircraft than the Chinese Air Force does. The US Air Force has like 4 times as many, and can stage a good chunk of them over the Straight as well. South Korea and Japan combined have about as many planes as China, and I have no idea if they (or India) get involved. But yeah, I have no idea what happens if it stays conventional, and I have no idea how likely it is that it stays conventional (and obviously WMDs mean no one knows what happens). Given the number of fast options (e.g. missiles) to sink ships, I imagine we'll know who will win the fight quickly, but it might take months to actually slog it out.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  They don't really need to park themselves between mainland and China, they already have enough forces amassed on the Ryukyus, they don't even need to bother using aircraft carriers.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    You probably should look at the maps of how far Chinese missiles can go. https://i2.wp.com/missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ChinaMissiles_Map_2020-scaled.jpg https://i2.wp.com/missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/... The YJ-21 is 1500km, more than enough to strike Japan's mainland let alone the nearby Ryukyus. If the US Navy wishes to support Taiwan, we will be open to those missiles.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      So? You don't think the USA has the same missiles in Japan and Korea ready to go as well? If China wants to launch missiles at Japan, what would stop the USA from launching similar missiles at China?
      - dragontamer 4y ago
        China isn't going to launch missiles at Japan. But they have the capability to launch missiles at a US Carrier Strike Group who has retreated towards Japan. That means that our Navy will be within Chinese missile range during Taiwanese defense operations. We aren't going to support Taiwan from Japan or Korea. We're going to use our Supercarriers to sail closer and then support Taiwan in a more direct fashion. But that means our carriers have a high chance of being shot at, and possibly sunk, by these missiles. And we'll need to sail very far away (far in excess of Japan) before our CSG is safe from the Chinese missile range. I absolutely expect our Carriers to be attacked, and possibly even sunk, in the upcoming fight. ----------- There's still a lot of ocean to hide in when our CSGs enter that missile range. It will be a matter of killing the Chinese sensors (ex: drones, spycraft, and avoiding satellites) which are looking for our carriers. We're gonna need our Carriers to be closer so that there's a reasonable response time to scramble and defend Taiwan. If it takes 2-hours for our airplanes to launch from a Carrier and support Taiwan (because they're cowards and hiding in Japan), then our airplanes simply will be too late to help with the defense. I don't know how fast the Chinese can scramble and attack Taiwan, but they have gross advantages in terms of distance. Only a Carrier can even the odds, and that carrier needs to be physically close to Taiwan. That's just how the fight will go.

by HWR_14 4y ago

dragontamer 4y ago

Taiwan is not a symmetric threat situation. US Navy will have to expose itself to Chinese missiles and Chinese Air Force, and those small Missile Patrol Boats, to defend Taiwan. China isn't thinking about attacking Hawaii or the West Coast. What China is trying to do in the near term is complete its takeover of ... well... what it believes to be part of China. And because various F35 chips are made in Taiwan, its a threat we cannot afford to ignore. (Along with all of our video game consoles, GPUs, AI Tensor processors, and other strategic level computer systems) Yes, the US Navy is unrivaled. But in a local, regional conflict... especially supported by the largest Airforce in the world (China has a lot of airplanes), and some of the largest ground-based missile forces in the world (China also has a lot of advanced missiles), the US Navy very well could lose the fight to defend Taiwan.

HWR_14 4y ago
I'm pretty sure the US Navy will park on the far side of Taiwan and attack stuff outside line of sight. Missiles and air force attacks I can see. Those Patrol boats will be barely different than land-based missile launch platforms. > supported by the largest Airforce in the world (China has a lot of airplanes) The US Navy has more aircraft than the Chinese Air Force does. The US Air Force has like 4 times as many, and can stage a good chunk of them over the Straight as well. South Korea and Japan combined have about as many planes as China, and I have no idea if they (or India) get involved. But yeah, I have no idea what happens if it stays conventional, and I have no idea how likely it is that it stays conventional (and obviously WMDs mean no one knows what happens). Given the number of fast options (e.g. missiles) to sink ships, I imagine we'll know who will win the fight quickly, but it might take months to actually slog it out.
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
They don't really need to park themselves between mainland and China, they already have enough forces amassed on the Ryukyus, they don't even need to bother using aircraft carriers.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  You probably should look at the maps of how far Chinese missiles can go. https://i2.wp.com/missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ChinaMissiles_Map_2020-scaled.jpg https://i2.wp.com/missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/... The YJ-21 is 1500km, more than enough to strike Japan's mainland let alone the nearby Ryukyus. If the US Navy wishes to support Taiwan, we will be open to those missiles.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    So? You don't think the USA has the same missiles in Japan and Korea ready to go as well? If China wants to launch missiles at Japan, what would stop the USA from launching similar missiles at China?
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      China isn't going to launch missiles at Japan. But they have the capability to launch missiles at a US Carrier Strike Group who has retreated towards Japan. That means that our Navy will be within Chinese missile range during Taiwanese defense operations. We aren't going to support Taiwan from Japan or Korea. We're going to use our Supercarriers to sail closer and then support Taiwan in a more direct fashion. But that means our carriers have a high chance of being shot at, and possibly sunk, by these missiles. And we'll need to sail very far away (far in excess of Japan) before our CSG is safe from the Chinese missile range. I absolutely expect our Carriers to be attacked, and possibly even sunk, in the upcoming fight. ----------- There's still a lot of ocean to hide in when our CSGs enter that missile range. It will be a matter of killing the Chinese sensors (ex: drones, spycraft, and avoiding satellites) which are looking for our carriers. We're gonna need our Carriers to be closer so that there's a reasonable response time to scramble and defend Taiwan. If it takes 2-hours for our airplanes to launch from a Carrier and support Taiwan (because they're cowards and hiding in Japan), then our airplanes simply will be too late to help with the defense. I don't know how fast the Chinese can scramble and attack Taiwan, but they have gross advantages in terms of distance. Only a Carrier can even the odds, and that carrier needs to be physically close to Taiwan. That's just how the fight will go.