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Layoffs will continue until we are fully prepared for the artificial recession induced by worker wage gains fear.

jmclnx 4y ago
This I fully agree with, companies want to move back to very low wages and are doing all it can to force a recession. So far not going well for them. On goes my Tin Foil Hat: So, SVB failed due to a Bank Run by rich people who mainly own their business. Coincidence??? I know people in retail, right now they are job hopping because those wages have risen a lot compared to Tech. Granted, those wages are not good at all, but some are now able to put a little away instead of living on those future payday loans. Most people let go in Tech, seems there is plenty of work out there anyway. edit: typos
- latency-guy2 4y ago
  Of course, you'll have to answer a few questions for your conspiracy theory: Why wait until 2023? Why do it after hiring at such a rate that you effectively increased your company's headcount by 50%+ in the last 2 years? What events are currently happening that would allow for this to happen? You can pretend like you have a standing for your theory all you want, but it's all nonsense compared to the simple fact that Powell and Yellen are here to force a recession.
  - pandaman 4y ago
    What if these companies did not hire some concrete number of people but had a pipeline set up to pass a certain fraction of applicants? Seeing how people get hired by Google, for example, and then get into a "team assignment" it certainly looks to be a possibility. Then, what happens when the stock price doubles over two years and a significant fraction of the compensation is pegged to the stock price? Compensation grows too. And when compensation grows they get more applicants, I'd imagine. It's not like they had been getting few before but their hiring pipeline had been set up for the old rate of applicants, if this suddenly grew, they'd naturally get more hires. Especially considering that the additional applicants come from a cohort that had been compensated well enough to resist the pre-stock doubling comp numbers. When the headcount had hit backstops, some hard headcount limits they likely have had, only then they realized how much did they hire and now react to this by doing layoffs and, probably, revising their HR policies.
- flyinglizard 4y ago
  Facilitating a bank run on your own bank is quite silly. Which again reinforces the proverb “never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity”.
hashtag-til 4y ago
Interesting - I’ve never thought about it this way. My only idea so far is to accummulate as much as I can and not get into long term debt. If I lost my job today, I estimate I could live ok without a job for about 2 years in my worst forecast inflation (in UK terms, something like 15%) It seems there is plenty of well paid work though (again UK reality). Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? Join a union and fight, perhaps?
- jarsin 4y ago
  > Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? You can hedge for recessions. If you think the central banks are blowing stuff up and the economy is going to go into a recession putting capital into government bonds like TLT is a flight to safety trade. The reasoning is if a recession comes then the central banks will have to lower rates and money will come pouring in from risky investments and from savings accounts. I think all recessions are artificially induced since the creation of the fed.
  - shrimpx 4y ago
    Money will come pouring into bonds? Trying to understand the reasoning for buying bonds.
    - jarsin 4y ago
      government bonds trade opposite interest rates. Interest rates down TLT up. Interest rates down cash needs more yield comes running to tlt. A lot of data out there that stocks crash after the pivot meaning they see the pivot as a recession and go racing into safety. Doesn't all happen in a straight easy line though. Headline from decemeber and I checked tlt and its near top of etf inflows ytd. TLT saw its second-largest inflow ever, with a gain of $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
      - shrimpx 4y ago
        Thanks! TLT is only yielding 2.7% is that considered good in 6% inflation? I guess people bet inflation will go back to 2%?
pas 4y ago
why would the labor market be so special? (compared to the generic pharma market, because we have data for that, https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/center-drug-evaluation-and-research-cder/generic-competition-and-drug-prices https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/center-drug-evaluation-and-res... ) microeconomics works. to assume that there is a big effort to fight labor implies things that seem to be simply not true. what's more likely is that both the wage gains and the inflation are caused by the same thing(s), covid: stimulus, supply chain shocks, missing millions from the labor force coupled with historically low immigration rates (of course due to administrative limits).

This I fully agree with, companies want to move back to very low wages and are doing all it can to force a recession. So far not going well for them. On goes my Tin Foil Hat: So, SVB failed due to a Bank Run by rich people who mainly own their business. Coincidence??? I know people in retail, right now they are job hopping because those wages have risen a lot compared to Tech. Granted, those wages are not good at all, but some are now able to put a little away instead of living on those future payday loans. Most people let go in Tech, seems there is plenty of work out there anyway. edit: typos

latency-guy2 4y ago
Of course, you'll have to answer a few questions for your conspiracy theory: Why wait until 2023? Why do it after hiring at such a rate that you effectively increased your company's headcount by 50%+ in the last 2 years? What events are currently happening that would allow for this to happen? You can pretend like you have a standing for your theory all you want, but it's all nonsense compared to the simple fact that Powell and Yellen are here to force a recession.
- pandaman 4y ago
  What if these companies did not hire some concrete number of people but had a pipeline set up to pass a certain fraction of applicants? Seeing how people get hired by Google, for example, and then get into a "team assignment" it certainly looks to be a possibility. Then, what happens when the stock price doubles over two years and a significant fraction of the compensation is pegged to the stock price? Compensation grows too. And when compensation grows they get more applicants, I'd imagine. It's not like they had been getting few before but their hiring pipeline had been set up for the old rate of applicants, if this suddenly grew, they'd naturally get more hires. Especially considering that the additional applicants come from a cohort that had been compensated well enough to resist the pre-stock doubling comp numbers. When the headcount had hit backstops, some hard headcount limits they likely have had, only then they realized how much did they hire and now react to this by doing layoffs and, probably, revising their HR policies.
flyinglizard 4y ago
Facilitating a bank run on your own bank is quite silly. Which again reinforces the proverb “never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity”.

hashtag-til 4y ago

Interesting - I’ve never thought about it this way. My only idea so far is to accummulate as much as I can and not get into long term debt. If I lost my job today, I estimate I could live ok without a job for about 2 years in my worst forecast inflation (in UK terms, something like 15%) It seems there is plenty of well paid work though (again UK reality). Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? Join a union and fight, perhaps?

jarsin 4y ago
> Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? You can hedge for recessions. If you think the central banks are blowing stuff up and the economy is going to go into a recession putting capital into government bonds like TLT is a flight to safety trade. The reasoning is if a recession comes then the central banks will have to lower rates and money will come pouring in from risky investments and from savings accounts. I think all recessions are artificially induced since the creation of the fed.
- shrimpx 4y ago
  Money will come pouring into bonds? Trying to understand the reasoning for buying bonds.
  - jarsin 4y ago
    government bonds trade opposite interest rates. Interest rates down TLT up. Interest rates down cash needs more yield comes running to tlt. A lot of data out there that stocks crash after the pivot meaning they see the pivot as a recession and go racing into safety. Doesn't all happen in a straight easy line though. Headline from decemeber and I checked tlt and its near top of etf inflows ytd. TLT saw its second-largest inflow ever, with a gain of $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
    - shrimpx 4y ago
      Thanks! TLT is only yielding 2.7% is that considered good in 6% inflation? I guess people bet inflation will go back to 2%?

pas 4y ago

why would the labor market be so special? (compared to the generic pharma market, because we have data for that, https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/center-drug-evaluation-and-research-cder/generic-competition-and-drug-prices https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/center-drug-evaluation-and-res... ) microeconomics works. to assume that there is a big effort to fight labor implies things that seem to be simply not true. what's more likely is that both the wage gains and the inflation are caused by the same thing(s), covid: stimulus, supply chain shocks, missing millions from the labor force coupled with historically low immigration rates (of course due to administrative limits).