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Prices actually have adjusted and have fallen somewhat. What life event would cause someone who currently owns a home at a <3% rate to sell? It’s a once in a

by dangus 4y ago

Prices actually have adjusted and have fallen somewhat. What life event would cause someone who currently owns a home at a <3% rate to sell? It’s a once in a generation type of rate. You’d have to be a complete fool or have some kind of crazy life circumstance to sell. Over 30% of employers in the US exclusively hire remote employees. Post-pandemic it’s hard for me to imagine someone in the home ownership socioeconomic class giving up that kind of leverage advantage to move for a job.

throwaway1777 4y ago
There are lots of reasons people move besides jobs.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
post-it 4y ago
> Over 30% of employers in the US exclusively hire remote employees. [X] Doubt
- dangus 4y ago
  Here's my source: https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/remote-work-statistics/ https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/remote-work-st...
Rury 4y ago
Unemployment is going to go up somewhat, foreclosures are a thing.
- KerrAvon 4y ago
  Funny thing about that, COVID has removed a lot of people from the workforce and will continue to do so for the next few years. The billionaires at the top of all the tech companies will live to regret allowing the activist investors to spur them into laying off people.
noisenotsignal 4y ago
This seems a bit extreme. If you can afford to move, does interest rate really factor in? If rates get worse you’ve still locked a better rate, if rates get better you refinance. Besides, there’s plenty of reasons to move besides for a job (and not everyone can work remotely or get a remote job with comparable compensation). Yeah, you’re going to pay some more interest if you get a new mortgage, but don’t you just adjust your monthly finances and eat it? As long as you can hit your long-term financial goals, the “once in a generation” rate doesn’t seem so important.
- dalyons 4y ago
  Yeah I think the HN crowd is vastly overestimating how much people care about rates. Most people are not perfect financial optimizers - they’ll just pay whatever they can maximally afford per month for a house that most closely matches what they need for their present life. Few people are coldly rate rational. You only have to look at what people pay for car loans to confirm this.
  - noisenotsignal 4y ago
    Right, and further not being perfectly financially rational is quite fine! Finances aren’t the only factor in any decision, nor do they need to be the primary factor.
  - NDizzle 4y ago
    They care about what they can afford each month. They indirectly care about the rate. The sign on the starter home neighborhood near me was $719/mo when I moved here in 2020. It crept up to 850, 970, 1100, and then they changed the sign to not have that information. Same houses. Hopefully only sane mortgage products continue to be used so it doesn’t end up like automobile loans. Aren’t most car loans 72 months now? That’s what is required to get the monthly note affordable for most buyers.
  - s1k3 4y ago
    It’s not about optimizing it’s about cash flow. If you get a 500k mortgage today at the current rate of ~7% your monthly payment is about 3500/mo. That same mortgage financed 2 years ago around ~2% is a monthly payment of 1800. For the SAME house you are paying basically double the amount per month. This isn’t optimizing a few bucks per month it’s about not being able to afford the same house. Every homeowner knows this and if they’ve ever had the incling to move int rh last year theyve done the math and realize it simply doesn’t make sense. People won’t move right now unless life forces them to.
angmarsbane 4y ago
Divorces, deaths in the family, growth in the family, people move to be close to certain hospitals / schools etc. Maybe one half of a marriage gets a remote role but the other doesn’t.
- NDizzle 4y ago
  With remote roles you no longer need two income households. Raise your kids yourself. That statement will get me downvoted, but if even one person is inspired to think that through it’s plenty worthwhile.
  - throwaway1777 4y ago
    Not with how expensive it is in every metro now
    - NDizzle 4y ago
      Metro? Remote?! Get out of cities with your remote job.

by dangus 4y ago

throwaway1777 4y ago

There are lots of reasons people move besides jobs.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

post-it 4y ago

> Over 30% of employers in the US exclusively hire remote employees. [X] Doubt

dangus 4y ago
Here's my source: https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/remote-work-statistics/ https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/remote-work-st...

Rury 4y ago

Unemployment is going to go up somewhat, foreclosures are a thing.

KerrAvon 4y ago
Funny thing about that, COVID has removed a lot of people from the workforce and will continue to do so for the next few years. The billionaires at the top of all the tech companies will live to regret allowing the activist investors to spur them into laying off people.

noisenotsignal 4y ago

This seems a bit extreme. If you can afford to move, does interest rate really factor in? If rates get worse you’ve still locked a better rate, if rates get better you refinance. Besides, there’s plenty of reasons to move besides for a job (and not everyone can work remotely or get a remote job with comparable compensation). Yeah, you’re going to pay some more interest if you get a new mortgage, but don’t you just adjust your monthly finances and eat it? As long as you can hit your long-term financial goals, the “once in a generation” rate doesn’t seem so important.

dalyons 4y ago
Yeah I think the HN crowd is vastly overestimating how much people care about rates. Most people are not perfect financial optimizers - they’ll just pay whatever they can maximally afford per month for a house that most closely matches what they need for their present life. Few people are coldly rate rational. You only have to look at what people pay for car loans to confirm this.
- noisenotsignal 4y ago
  Right, and further not being perfectly financially rational is quite fine! Finances aren’t the only factor in any decision, nor do they need to be the primary factor.
- NDizzle 4y ago
  They care about what they can afford each month. They indirectly care about the rate. The sign on the starter home neighborhood near me was $719/mo when I moved here in 2020. It crept up to 850, 970, 1100, and then they changed the sign to not have that information. Same houses. Hopefully only sane mortgage products continue to be used so it doesn’t end up like automobile loans. Aren’t most car loans 72 months now? That’s what is required to get the monthly note affordable for most buyers.
- s1k3 4y ago
  It’s not about optimizing it’s about cash flow. If you get a 500k mortgage today at the current rate of ~7% your monthly payment is about 3500/mo. That same mortgage financed 2 years ago around ~2% is a monthly payment of 1800. For the SAME house you are paying basically double the amount per month. This isn’t optimizing a few bucks per month it’s about not being able to afford the same house. Every homeowner knows this and if they’ve ever had the incling to move int rh last year theyve done the math and realize it simply doesn’t make sense. People won’t move right now unless life forces them to.

angmarsbane 4y ago

Divorces, deaths in the family, growth in the family, people move to be close to certain hospitals / schools etc. Maybe one half of a marriage gets a remote role but the other doesn’t.

NDizzle 4y ago
With remote roles you no longer need two income households. Raise your kids yourself. That statement will get me downvoted, but if even one person is inspired to think that through it’s plenty worthwhile.
- throwaway1777 4y ago
  Not with how expensive it is in every metro now
  - NDizzle 4y ago
    Metro? Remote?! Get out of cities with your remote job.