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Companies are there to make money. If the same job currently dinner by 5 people can now be done by 3, and it means more profit for shareholders, what do you thi

Companies are there to make money. If the same job currently dinner by 5 people can now be done by 3, and it means more profit for shareholders, what do you think shareholder will want? While profit is the main driver, it'll mean smaller teams Not today, not with current tech, maybe in the near future though

istjohn 4y ago
But just like building more roads induces more demand by making driving more attractive, this will lower the cost of custom software development and create new demand. Perhaps one day soon it will be affordable for every company of every size to have a fully custom ERP solution instead of shoehorning their business processes into Salesforce or the like. Perhaps every family will have a custom app managing their household's smart home appliances, childrens' allowances, autonomous vehicles, home maintenance, bill payment, child homework tracking, etc. in an integrated system.
- pleb_nz 4y ago
  Are you saying don't worry, don't have a fallback plan, everything will be honky dory?
Arkhaine_kupo 4y ago
Well productivity is up 240% since the 1950s. So due to a single person being more efficient than 2 in 1950 and the 43.5 million workforce we can extrapolate that no more than 20 million workers will be needed nowadays. Except in 2020 there were 152 million employed americans, with a productivity 2.4x higher than 1950s, or a cummulative workforce of 365 million 1950 americans working. And somehow they all had stuf to do and work on
- pleb_nz 4y ago
  I dont think that's a fair and direct comparison tbh. There's a lot of new industries now that people have diverged into and population growth has exploded which I hope for the sake of the planet and human kind is going to slow , at least until we're in a better position to manage bigger populations without killing the planet and other life. I'll be happy if I'm wrong, but are you confident enough to bet that there won't be less need for general developers and engineers and not have a plan in case? Personally I would be looking at my options In case I needed to pivot and not waiting 5o find out.
  - Arkhaine_kupo 4y ago
    > There's a lot of new industries now And if this tech is really revolutionary there won't be new industries? Have we peaked? > but are you confident enough to bet that there won't be less need for general developers and engineers and not have a plan in case? I am confident there will not be a lack of work. Whether the roles are similar is a different question. Actuaries and accountants look very different now to before excel was common place. Web developers were not a thing before the internet. If the revolution comes, and jobs are no longer needed, perhpas there is an industry for prompt engineers. Or model fine tunning experts. Dev ops roles to connect super computers to Modelling APIs. Who knows, but the skills of a decent Engineer are on problem solving, on learning new ideas, on applying problem solving laterally those are such broad skills that is hard for a job market to exist without needing them.

istjohn 4y ago

But just like building more roads induces more demand by making driving more attractive, this will lower the cost of custom software development and create new demand. Perhaps one day soon it will be affordable for every company of every size to have a fully custom ERP solution instead of shoehorning their business processes into Salesforce or the like. Perhaps every family will have a custom app managing their household's smart home appliances, childrens' allowances, autonomous vehicles, home maintenance, bill payment, child homework tracking, etc. in an integrated system.

pleb_nz 4y ago
Are you saying don't worry, don't have a fallback plan, everything will be honky dory?

Arkhaine_kupo 4y ago

Well productivity is up 240% since the 1950s. So due to a single person being more efficient than 2 in 1950 and the 43.5 million workforce we can extrapolate that no more than 20 million workers will be needed nowadays. Except in 2020 there were 152 million employed americans, with a productivity 2.4x higher than 1950s, or a cummulative workforce of 365 million 1950 americans working. And somehow they all had stuf to do and work on

pleb_nz 4y ago
I dont think that's a fair and direct comparison tbh. There's a lot of new industries now that people have diverged into and population growth has exploded which I hope for the sake of the planet and human kind is going to slow , at least until we're in a better position to manage bigger populations without killing the planet and other life. I'll be happy if I'm wrong, but are you confident enough to bet that there won't be less need for general developers and engineers and not have a plan in case? Personally I would be looking at my options In case I needed to pivot and not waiting 5o find out.
- Arkhaine_kupo 4y ago
  > There's a lot of new industries now And if this tech is really revolutionary there won't be new industries? Have we peaked? > but are you confident enough to bet that there won't be less need for general developers and engineers and not have a plan in case? I am confident there will not be a lack of work. Whether the roles are similar is a different question. Actuaries and accountants look very different now to before excel was common place. Web developers were not a thing before the internet. If the revolution comes, and jobs are no longer needed, perhpas there is an industry for prompt engineers. Or model fine tunning experts. Dev ops roles to connect super computers to Modelling APIs. Who knows, but the skills of a decent Engineer are on problem solving, on learning new ideas, on applying problem solving laterally those are such broad skills that is hard for a job market to exist without needing them.