4 ms·

And this is news? Hasn’t that been completely obvious since the fed was forced to hike interest rates? Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, espe

And this is news? Hasn’t that been completely obvious since the fed was forced to hike interest rates? Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, especially post COVID craziness, at some point has to have a cost.

mostertoaster 4y ago
What really sucks though is how much those who happened to acquire assets at the right time will do ok, and those who didn’t are SOL.
- edrxty 4y ago
  Replace "happened to" with "had literally any ability to". This'll be yet another slap in the face for millennials after several previous rounds of being slapped before the ladder was pulled up each time.
dragonwriter 4y ago
Since a recession is the period after an economic peak, the US is always in one of three stages: (1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or (2) In a recession, or (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). There are literally no other options. OTOH, I hope that the Fed thinks that a recession is imminent, because if it does and acts like it, then it is, ipso facto, less likely to actually occur, and more likely to be shallow and short if it nevertheless does, and moderate monetary stimulus without concurrent fiscal stimulus (and politically fiscal stimulus just isn’t probable with this Congress) might slow the decline of inflation, but isn’t going to turn restoke inflation.
- lmm 4y ago
  > (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). > There are literally no other options. When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.
  - Rury 4y ago
    >steady you're heading away from a recession Not quite, but there is certainly only 3 scenarios, just as shown by a graph. It can go up (growth), it can go down (recession), or it can be flat (stagnation).
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    There might be a sense where that would necessarily be true, if potentially only evident at finer resolution than economic statistics are normally gathered, if the “aggregate economy” curve whose peak marks the beginning of a recession (GDP to a first approximation, but recession is not assessed on a single indicator or simple function) were constrained to being a function that is differentiable (and whose derivative also is) everywhere, but…it’s not. There’s no reason it has to, from expansion, smoothly turn around through a level point to start going down, so that you could assess “heading toward a recession” as where the second derivative as where the second derivative is negative. (In fact, there isn’t even an actual function, just declared peaks and troughs; between peak and trough is “recession”, between trough and peak is “expansion”, and if you are in one – unless it goes on forever – you are heading for the other. The only nontrivial prediction regarding “heading for” is how soon, not are we.)
    - Dylan16807 4y ago
      Take a running average and it will easily be differentiable. And you can set up a test for how aggressively and consistently it's turning toward the negative to say we're "heading for" a recession. But also I don't like your definition of "heading for" at all. When I leave my house to go to work, I am not "heading for" my house, despite the fact that I will inevitably return.

mostertoaster 4y ago

What really sucks though is how much those who happened to acquire assets at the right time will do ok, and those who didn’t are SOL.

edrxty 4y ago
Replace "happened to" with "had literally any ability to". This'll be yet another slap in the face for millennials after several previous rounds of being slapped before the ladder was pulled up each time.

dragonwriter 4y ago

Since a recession is the period after an economic peak, the US is always in one of three stages: (1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or (2) In a recession, or (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). There are literally no other options. OTOH, I hope that the Fed thinks that a recession is imminent, because if it does and acts like it, then it is, ipso facto, less likely to actually occur, and more likely to be shallow and short if it nevertheless does, and moderate monetary stimulus without concurrent fiscal stimulus (and politically fiscal stimulus just isn’t probable with this Congress) might slow the decline of inflation, but isn’t going to turn restoke inflation.

lmm 4y ago
> (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). > There are literally no other options. When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.
- Rury 4y ago
  >steady you're heading away from a recession Not quite, but there is certainly only 3 scenarios, just as shown by a graph. It can go up (growth), it can go down (recession), or it can be flat (stagnation).
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  There might be a sense where that would necessarily be true, if potentially only evident at finer resolution than economic statistics are normally gathered, if the “aggregate economy” curve whose peak marks the beginning of a recession (GDP to a first approximation, but recession is not assessed on a single indicator or simple function) were constrained to being a function that is differentiable (and whose derivative also is) everywhere, but…it’s not. There’s no reason it has to, from expansion, smoothly turn around through a level point to start going down, so that you could assess “heading toward a recession” as where the second derivative as where the second derivative is negative. (In fact, there isn’t even an actual function, just declared peaks and troughs; between peak and trough is “recession”, between trough and peak is “expansion”, and if you are in one – unless it goes on forever – you are heading for the other. The only nontrivial prediction regarding “heading for” is how soon, not are we.)
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    Take a running average and it will easily be differentiable. And you can set up a test for how aggressively and consistently it's turning toward the negative to say we're "heading for" a recession. But also I don't like your definition of "heading for" at all. When I leave my house to go to work, I am not "heading for" my house, despite the fact that I will inevitably return.