4 ms·

I like Bill Gates - out of the major iconic tech personas, he is one of the most interesting to me. Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming, so it's

by epups 4y ago

I like Bill Gates - out of the major iconic tech personas, he is one of the most interesting to me. Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming, so it's not like he is an oracle, but he is right on many issues too. I think he is right on this one as well. The most intriguing prediction was the medical one. He envisions training "medical AIs" that can act as a source of knowledge in poorer countries. Honestly, sounds madness to tell someone to rely on a LLM for medical advice today, although I can kind of imagine it happening over time as we get better at taming them.

wizofaus 4y ago
I would think an LLM trained on an accurate description of virtually every medical diagnosis ever made (along with a description of the treatment and outcome) would be far more capable of diagnosing almost any newly described condition better than any human doctor. What I'd expect is a good deal further off is a AI- controlled surgical robots, but we'll likely see them used within our lifetimes.
- WA 4y ago
  Only if you can provide an accurate description of the condition someone is suffering from. Without it, an LLM would probably recommend some average treatment. Basically, prompt engineering for medical conditions.
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    Absolutely, and clearly in many cases such an accurate description couldn't be supplied purely by the patient self-describing their symptoms. But for others it seems fairly plausible. I'd still expect to see qualified professionals to be required to actually approve the recommended treatment (including prescribing medications etc.).
- hackerlight 4y ago
  You'd probably start by using the LLM as a filter, not for the final diagnosis. If the LLM thinks something is strange (say, 5% of the time) --> refer to human doctor to ensure it isn't a false positive. If the problem is a shortage of doctors, this is one solution.
adventured 4y ago
> Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming Microsoft, led by Gates, were far ahead on pursuing smartphones. They picked the wrong approach (Gates was certain it'd use a stylus for interaction; Jobs was certain the finger was the ideal tool) and lost to the path Apple pursued. They absolutely saw it, at least a decade before the iPhone was launched.
- tenpies 4y ago
  Yes, I loved the direction Microsoft was going with their phones and Windows Mobile. Microsoft Continuum was insane - you would be able to plug in your phone to a USB-hub like dock with monitor and keyboard, and it would effective run a near-desktop Windows experience[1]. In 2015. Tiles were also so ahead of their time it was insane. --- [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ44vz5MJ4s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ44vz5MJ4s

by epups 4y ago

wizofaus 4y ago

I would think an LLM trained on an accurate description of virtually every medical diagnosis ever made (along with a description of the treatment and outcome) would be far more capable of diagnosing almost any newly described condition better than any human doctor. What I'd expect is a good deal further off is a AI- controlled surgical robots, but we'll likely see them used within our lifetimes.

WA 4y ago
Only if you can provide an accurate description of the condition someone is suffering from. Without it, an LLM would probably recommend some average treatment. Basically, prompt engineering for medical conditions.
- wizofaus 4y ago
  Absolutely, and clearly in many cases such an accurate description couldn't be supplied purely by the patient self-describing their symptoms. But for others it seems fairly plausible. I'd still expect to see qualified professionals to be required to actually approve the recommended treatment (including prescribing medications etc.).
hackerlight 4y ago
You'd probably start by using the LLM as a filter, not for the final diagnosis. If the LLM thinks something is strange (say, 5% of the time) --> refer to human doctor to ensure it isn't a false positive. If the problem is a shortage of doctors, this is one solution.

adventured 4y ago

> Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming Microsoft, led by Gates, were far ahead on pursuing smartphones. They picked the wrong approach (Gates was certain it'd use a stylus for interaction; Jobs was certain the finger was the ideal tool) and lost to the path Apple pursued. They absolutely saw it, at least a decade before the iPhone was launched.

tenpies 4y ago
Yes, I loved the direction Microsoft was going with their phones and Windows Mobile. Microsoft Continuum was insane - you would be able to plug in your phone to a USB-hub like dock with monitor and keyboard, and it would effective run a near-desktop Windows experience[1]. In 2015. Tiles were also so ahead of their time it was insane. --- [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ44vz5MJ4s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ44vz5MJ4s