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Complex systems usually tend to equilibrium otherwise they would be in constant oscillation (positive feedback theory). As we look back in ice cores, there is

by alfor 4y ago

Complex systems usually tend to equilibrium otherwise they would be in constant oscillation (positive feedback theory). As we look back in ice cores, there is variation, but not constant oscillations witch confirm a self stabilizing system. A few negative feedback we don’t often hear: increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Increase in temperature increase humidity: clouds that have a huge effect on reflecting radiation (much greater than co2) increase precipitation, increase plant growth in deserts. Not to say that we should continue this experiment, but maybe not panic either and see this as the only problem: war, famine, poverty are much more important and real immediate problems instead of projected possible problems.

wcoenen 4y ago
> Increase in temperature increase humidity Water vapor amplifies the effect of other greenhouse gases. https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relati...
- alfor 4y ago
  Yes, but also with clouds that prevent radiation from reaching the ground.
kuhewa 4y ago
> increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Which might sound good for crops but of itself can destabilise ecosystems, African savannahs are already becoming scrubbier with brush and shrubs due to more CO2 enrichment for at least ~1 million and possibly several million years. That will definitely have implications for populations of animals adapted for grassland
brnt 4y ago
Im sure the IPCC authors didn't forget their climate science 101 material. Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.
- alfor 4y ago
  Yes we can, but what are those problems, what is the cost involved, what are we willing to sacrifice? There is many other goals that are largely ignored because "climate" is very very popular. I like the work of Bjorn Lomborg on that front. When we rank the problems and solution climate is not at the top.
- alfor 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - imtringued 4y ago
    IPCC is absurdly conservative. If you have an issue with their numbers then you‘ve fallen for pseudo science.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  > climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine and migration.
  - alfor 4y ago
    Does it? We have fewer and fewer death because of climate (most death of climate is because of cold) We have a proxy war in Ukraine that has nothing to do with climate We have a famine in Sri Lanka that was caused by the green movement The narrative of climate is the cause of all problems isn’t reasonable anymore.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
      Robust institutions disagree on whether heat or cold is more significant: > Extreme heat and extreme cold both kill hundreds of people each year in the U.S., but determining a death toll for each is a process subject to large errors. In fact, two major U.S. government agencies that track heat and cold deaths--NOAA and the CDC--differ sharply in their answer to the question of which is the bigger killer. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Extreme-Heat-or-Extreme-Cold https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Ex... And while it may indeed be that cold is a more significant source of death, these numbers are hardly trivial: 2003 heatwave, Europe: 72,000 2022 heatwave, Europe: 20,000 and for the future: > In the course of this century, the percentage of the European population dying from cold temperatures will steadily decrease, while the percentage of the population dying from heat will increase. The latter increase will start to exceed the reduction of cold-weather related mortality in the second half of this century, especially in the Mediterranean. As a result, mortality in Europe related to non-optimal temperatures will start to increase by the end of the century in a moderate scenario of climate change, and already by the middle of the century in the high-end scenario of climate change. Derived from: Martínez-Solanas et al., 2021. Lancet Planetary Health 5: e446–54 There is no serious narrative that claims that climate change is the current cause of all problems. There is no serious narrative that can refute the obvious point that if climate chnage predictions play out, it will add greatly to all existing problems.
PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
> clouds that have a huge effect on reflecting radiation My understanding is that clouds are inside that part of the atmosphere in which radiative forcing has decreased. This means that while they may reflect radiation so that it does not reach the ground, they do not stop (all) the energy from being trapped within the atmosphere. > war, famine, poverty All actual problems that will result from significant climate change, not distinct from climate change (even though they may exist for other reasons too).

by alfor 4y ago

wcoenen 4y ago

> Increase in temperature increase humidity Water vapor amplifies the effect of other greenhouse gases. https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relati...

alfor 4y ago
Yes, but also with clouds that prevent radiation from reaching the ground.

kuhewa 4y ago

> increase of co2 have a huge effect on plant grow especially in hash deserted conditions. Which might sound good for crops but of itself can destabilise ecosystems, African savannahs are already becoming scrubbier with brush and shrubs due to more CO2 enrichment for at least ~1 million and possibly several million years. That will definitely have implications for populations of animals adapted for grassland

brnt 4y ago

Im sure the IPCC authors didn't forget their climate science 101 material. Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.

alfor 4y ago
Yes we can, but what are those problems, what is the cost involved, what are we willing to sacrifice? There is many other goals that are largely ignored because "climate" is very very popular. I like the work of Bjorn Lomborg on that front. When we rank the problems and solution climate is not at the top.
alfor 4y ago
[flagged]
- imtringued 4y ago
  IPCC is absurdly conservative. If you have an issue with their numbers then you‘ve fallen for pseudo science.
PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
> climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine and migration.
- alfor 4y ago
  Does it? We have fewer and fewer death because of climate (most death of climate is because of cold) We have a proxy war in Ukraine that has nothing to do with climate We have a famine in Sri Lanka that was caused by the green movement The narrative of climate is the cause of all problems isn’t reasonable anymore.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
    Robust institutions disagree on whether heat or cold is more significant: > Extreme heat and extreme cold both kill hundreds of people each year in the U.S., but determining a death toll for each is a process subject to large errors. In fact, two major U.S. government agencies that track heat and cold deaths--NOAA and the CDC--differ sharply in their answer to the question of which is the bigger killer. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Extreme-Heat-or-Extreme-Cold https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Ex... And while it may indeed be that cold is a more significant source of death, these numbers are hardly trivial: 2003 heatwave, Europe: 72,000 2022 heatwave, Europe: 20,000 and for the future: > In the course of this century, the percentage of the European population dying from cold temperatures will steadily decrease, while the percentage of the population dying from heat will increase. The latter increase will start to exceed the reduction of cold-weather related mortality in the second half of this century, especially in the Mediterranean. As a result, mortality in Europe related to non-optimal temperatures will start to increase by the end of the century in a moderate scenario of climate change, and already by the middle of the century in the high-end scenario of climate change. Derived from: Martínez-Solanas et al., 2021. Lancet Planetary Health 5: e446–54 There is no serious narrative that claims that climate change is the current cause of all problems. There is no serious narrative that can refute the obvious point that if climate chnage predictions play out, it will add greatly to all existing problems.

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago

> clouds that have a huge effect on reflecting radiation My understanding is that clouds are inside that part of the atmosphere in which radiative forcing has decreased. This means that while they may reflect radiation so that it does not reach the ground, they do not stop (all) the energy from being trapped within the atmosphere. > war, famine, poverty All actual problems that will result from significant climate change, not distinct from climate change (even though they may exist for other reasons too).