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Could UFOs be alien probes? A new 2023 Harvard study explores it [pdf]
- yowzadave 4y agoWas in a hotel with my family last weekend, and took part in one of our favorite traditions: watching garbage TV. It seems like every show on the History channel is now about ancient aliens/unexplained "mysteries"/etc., with the same rotating cast of huckster talking heads. Many of the UFO-themed episodes featured stories as "mysteries" that were convincingly explained years ago (i.e., the Chilean navy video of the jet with exhaust contrails). The question my (entertained, but skeptical) daughters kept asking was: why are the aliens permanently just beyond clear identification? They are so bad at hiding themselves that there are thousands of "sightings"...yet so good at hiding that none of these sightings offers convincing proof. Why are the photos and videos always so grainy/tiny/out of focus? The obvious answer: the videos that are in focus are clearly not aliens. It's an example of selection bias.
- Lutzb 4y agoI always thought this was the most likely explanation. Advanced civilization builds self-replicating probes, probes spread out over the whole galaxy. Stationed in every system to catalog signs of life evolving.
- tsimionescu 4y agoReally, the most likely explanation for a fast blur on some airplane's sensors is an alien self-replicating physics defying probe from a hyper-advanced civilization?
- bumby 4y agoOumuamua is an interplanetary object that was able to be studied for days by multiple telescopes as it passed through our solar system. Not some "fast blur on some airplane's sensors". You may be conflating the the article's topic with other UAP stories in the recent news.
- tsimionescu 4y agoThe paper is not about 'Oumuamua, it's specifically about "highly-maneouverable UAPs": > We derive physical constraints on interpretations of “highly maneuverable” Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP)
- bumby 4y agoIf you aren’t aware of the broader context, the author (Avi Loeb) has used the various techniques within the paper to make the case that Oumuamua is of ET origins. The direct context of the article is meteorites (like Oumuamua), not the “fast blurs on aircraft sensors” you seem to be referencing.
- tsimionescu 4y agoI know who Avi Loeb is and his previous work in this area. But this paper is very explicitly not about meteorites or objects seen by advanced telescopes, it is exactly about the fast blurs on aircraft sensors. Here is a piece from the conclusion: > For example, one of the most common sets of data within the military holdings comes from FLIR (forward looking infrared) pods. These sensors provide an accurate resolved image of relative thermal measurements across the scene. Typical UAP sightings are too far away to get a highly resolved image of the object and determination of the object’s motion is limited by the lack of range data. Not to mention, 'Oumuamua was emphatically not a UAP, it was a pretty-well-identified spatial object. UAP in fact refers exclusively to sightings that are not even clearly known to be "objects" at all, hence the move away from "UFO".
- bumby 4y agoIt's both. The UAP context is a meteorite (i.e., '-ite' defining that it comes in contact with the earth's atmosphere). The article seems very much about meteorites (or possible, mis-identified meteorites), using RF, military FLIR, and observational telescope data. >"Parallax data from the James Webb Space Telescope may identify the nature and 3D trajectory of more ‘Oumuamua-like or smaller interstellar objects crossing through or trapped within the solar system. Below we show that any supersonic motion by such devices through the Earth’s atmosphere would inevitably be accompanied by bright optical emission and detectable characterization signatures." He first describes how such an object (i.e., Oumuamua-like meteorite) travelling through the Earth's atmosphere can be measured through its luminosity signature. He then describes how RF and thermal (i.e. FLIR) signatures can also be used.
- wil421 4y agoYou should read Childhood’s End by Arthur C. Clarke.
- hiidrew 4y agothanks for the tip, adding this to my reading list. synopsis sounds awesome.
- krapp 4y agoIf you believe this to be likely reality, you're going to have to explain it in light of the Fermi Paradox because a galaxy-blanketing swarm of self-replicating machines is a lot of heat and mass to hide.
- l33tman 4y agoMaybe all the dark matter turns out to be cloaked Von Neuman probes...
- chatmasta 4y agoWouldn't the explanation be that there never was any paradox, but rather we just hadn't noticed the alien probes yet? This is in contrast to the hypothetical scenario of finding microbial life on Mars, which as Nick Bostrom is fond of explaining [0], "would be very bad news" because it would imply the Great Filter is ahead of us. [0] (timestamped) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vD4df_63wo&t=382s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vD4df_63wo&t=382s
- krapp 4y agoWould it be possible not to notice them? The more probes there are, the more likely one of them happens across Earth. Interstellar space should be full of them. Unless we're talking about, like, one or two probes making a breadcrumb trail to Earth from wherever.
- chatmasta 4y agoWell, I think it's a bit of a circular question :) But it seems like one of the conclusions of the linked paper in the OP (which is trying to put parameters on this very question) is that it actually would be hard to notice them, for certain scales of probe (on the order of 1 meter), at least while they're in outer space: > At a distance d from the Sun and the telescope, objects that are a meter in diameter and reflect a fraction a ≈ 10% of sunlight impinging on their surface would yield a flux of optical light of ∼ 0.2(d/1 AU)−2 nJy, well below the detection threshold of even the James Webb Space Telescope But it goes on to suggest that we could notice them, even at sizes less than a meter, with radar technology, once they're in the atmosphere: > In contrast, the radar signatures of a meter class object would be detectable with our deep space radars and space fence, much like IM2 was, out to beyond geosynchronous orbit at an altitude above 36,000 km. Such objects could also become optically detectable as they get close to Earth, especially if they create a fireball as a result of their friction with air. But, such FLIR systems also produce a lot of false positives, i.e. actual everyday meteors in the atmosphere. So the challenge is narrowing down the data to find the most anomalous objects. And indeed that's what Loeb has done with the Galileo project, as he's identified one such object that landed a few years ago, and is chartering a ship to go try to find it in the Pacific Ocean. Estimating the chance of success of his quest is an exercise left to the reader, but we'll have to see what comes of it.
- OscarCunningham 4y agoThen why do the mostly stay hidden but sometimes leave exterior lights on? It seems to me that UFO behaviour isn't consistent with likely alien goals. I would expect them to either announce themselves openly or else be entirely invisible.
- Loquebantur 4y agoMaybe your assumptions about "likely alien goals" are just wrong? If you want not to shock people, you don't sneak up on them, but rather you start by giving the faintest hint, alerting their attention to your presence. "Having lights on" has the additional benefit of obscuring your vehicle quite effectively from camera sensors.
- oldstrangers 4y agoA fun coincidence I keep asking: has anyone made the connection that the interstellar object ʻOumuamua came from the direction of Vega, much in the same way that the alien signal in the film 'Contact' came from Vega?
- oumua_don17 4y agoPreliminary orbital calculations suggest that the object came from the approximate direction of the bright star Vega, in the northern constellation of Lyra. However, it took so long for the interstellar object to make the journey―even at the speed of about 59,000 miles per hour (26.4 kilometers per second)―that Vega was not near that position when the ‘Oumuamua was there about 300,000 years ago. Source: https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/ https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/co...
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Silverback_VII 4y agoWhat’s up with these UFO stories popping up everywhere? Apparently, some of them were shot down. Are there any reports about what they found at the crash site?
- chatmasta 4y agoThis paper has been making the rounds recently after being severely misrepresented in the media, with headlines like "pentagon says there could be an alien mothership in the solar system." The actual paper is much more reasonable, with the simple goal of putting constraints on what we would expect from Alien probes in terms of our tools for observing them, e.g. establishing bounding calculations we can use to rule out alien craft based on data like how much or how little light they're emitting on our FLIR systems. Personally, I love the UFO stuff and would like nothing more than to learn aliens are visiting us. But I think it's far more likely that it's all part of a government disinformation campaign, mostly based on the fact that Lue Elizondo (aka Lue Anon) is a career disinformation asset, and the entire saga has played out exactly as you'd expect a disinformation campaign to go. The only "data" we have on UAPs comes from military "leaks" and second-hand reports. The paradox of the UFO community is that on one hand, they accuse the government of lying to us for 70 years, but on the other hand, they point to evidence "released" (selectively leaked) by the government as incontrovertible proof of "the phenomenon." As for Avi Loeb (first author of the linked paper), I have great respect for him and anyone who would keep such an open mind, but I have to admit he's also a bit of a charlatan huckster. I remain curious to see the results of his Galileo project, but I'm skeptical they'll be able to find some tiny fragments of a meteor that crashed into the Pacific ocean a few years ago. And if they do find such fragments, and claim that they're part of an alien ship, I'll be even more skeptical.
- eternalban 4y ago> a disinformation campaign My sense of this as well. If you recall the past 3 years, the announcements were coordinated and we had former Mossad and CIA heads pushing it. So the question is for what purpose would you try and sell the idea of ET visiting Earth to the masses? My speculation -- this is just speculation -- is that it will be a component of an attempt to create a new unified global religion to basically wrap [and undermine the narrative of] the existing (problematic in certain views) global religions. [You know, ET as angels and prophets as ~abductees.] p.s. this looks like an interesting read (that closes with): Like the JFK assassination conspiracy theories, the UFO issue probably will not go away soon, no matter what the Agency does or says. The belief that we are not alone in the universe is too emotionally appealing and the distrust of our government is too pervasive to make the issue amenable to traditional scientific studies of rational explanation and evidence. CIA's Role in the Study of UFOs, 1947-90, Gerald K Haines, National Reconnaissance Office historian https://www.cia.gov/static/105bd8290b90de13ee136fecc9fe863f/cia-role-study-UFOs.pdf https://www.cia.gov/static/105bd8290b90de13ee136fecc9fe863f/... p.s.s. I see a [dead] comment accusing me of "pushing conspiracy theories" and that is not the case. I am very skeptical of the idea of aliens waiting until humans reached a certain level of technology to make an entrance. If anything, pre-modern humanity was far more accepting of fantastical beasts, beings, places, magic, you name it. ET would have fitted right in. Why wait until the age of reason? So given that lack of belief in ET (not in their existence but rather in their presence on our planet), coupled with 1st tier media and personalities promoting it, and the fact that ET apparently only contacts Five Eyes countries, the question then arises as to why are they pushing this bs? A speculation followed.
- bumby 4y agoFor anyone interested, the author (Avi Loeb) has a very accessible book titled "Extraterrestrial" that goes into the details of why the Oumuamua interplanetary object may be more likely to be a "space buoy" or light sail than a comet.
- 7thaccount 4y agoI watched a video recently of a physicist criticizing his recent work. He is a Harvard professor, so obviously a smart guy, but there are things to think about here. First of all, he's going on and on about the establishment and how they're not doing enough and so on. He was literally calling out Jill Tartar the famous SETI scientist that was the inspiration for the contact book/movie. It is a little weird to poop on someone who has spent their entire life begging congress for money to do more research looking for alien life. He sounded completely irrational during it and suggested they didn't want to do anything when SETI does everything they can with their very limited funding. He then tried making fun of her for not publishing as many papers when his publishing record is suspect due to the sheer number of papers he puts out. Someone pointed out that being an author on 7 papers a month is basically impossible. When other scientists started looking in more depth, they noticed that the papers were mostly all very rough sketches of water cooler ideas and not the kind of quality that would normally be acceptable in journals if you weren't already a Harvard physicist. Then, I find some of his statements to baffle me as they seem obviously immature. He's basically said that it has to be an alien probe as nothing else makes sense. Other scientists are just saying...well sure...it could be that, but it seems more likely that we just haven't figured out the non-alien cause yet. I'd appreciate some feedback from an actual physicist on the matter.
- Loquebantur 4y agoTaking "some video" on the internet featuring "some physicist"(?) as basis for anything is ill-advised. Worse, you are actually engaging in character assassination here by repeating that nonsense.
- 7thaccount 4y ago
- verisimi 4y agoCould someone do a study on the short term and long term effects of vaccines please, instead of this nonsense?
- gchamonlive 4y agoImplying there is a limited resource of research effort that is being diverted from vaccines and into aliens, and that if all that research effort was put into vaccines it would translate into better results in a shorter period of time. If this was true, maybe it should all be reverted to curing infant cancer, or solving global hunger and bad distribution of wealth. In any case, those assumptions don't necessarily hold: we can very well study aliens, at the same time we research vaccines and try to redistribute wealth.
- stametseater 4y agoI am confident that Avi Loeb has nothing to contribute to that discussion.
- apienx 4y agoNo. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headli...
- 29athrowaway 4y agoWe do not know for certain what is deep inside the Earth. What if they are smart dinosaurs inside? Like the plot of the SMB movie from the 90s?
- lsllc 4y agoOr dinosaur riding moon nazis? https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3038708/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3038708/
- 29athrowaway 4y agoAn interestin case of the Godwin's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
- TedDoesntTalk 4y ago> Like the plot of the SMB movie from the 90s? I don't know what SMB is, but this idea is from 1864 when Jules Verne published "Journey to the Center of the Earth".
- Melatonic 4y agoWhy do T-Rex's have such tiny little hands? The answer is obvious: They were master programmers and loved computers.
- guender 4y ago[dead]
- O__________O 4y agoTitle was editorialized, original actual representation papers intent and content: “PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS ON UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENA”
- jwally 4y agoRandom question I'll throw out into the ether because I've been mulling it over for the last month or so: If you're 70% certain the UFOs were aliens, but know they won't "reveal themselves" or share any knowledge, or do anything useful for the next 10,000 years; should we care about them?
- Simon_O_Rourke 4y agoI have been listening a good deal to Rob Kristoffersen's excellent "Our Strange Skies" podcast [1] and it just highlights a lot of the seemingly arbitrary nonsense that so-called UFO's get up to once they land. The kind of planetary science we can get up to with a orbiting probe seems to be much more cost effective than the reports of ten little guys landing in the middle of some rural road and getting out to look at rocks and sticks. [1] - Our Strange Skies - https://www.deezer.com/en/show/2120722 https://www.deezer.com/en/show/2120722