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Maybe. Russia's population is falling and Putin is getting older to the extent that such a war may not have happened 5-10 years from now. I am more worried abo

• lmm 4y ago
  > Maybe. Russia's population is falling and Putin is getting older to the extent that such a war may not have happened 5-10 years from now. We've been trying the "wait them out" strategy with North Korea and it's gone very badly IMO. At some point it's better to grasp the nettle, especially when you're lucky enough to get as clear-cut a conflict as this. There will probably never be a better time to draw the line and hold it. > I am more worried about escalation, nukes, forever wars etc. Ukraine fighting for pre 2014 borders is one case that triggers this, among many others Accepting peace on anything less than a return to pre-2014 borders would doom the world in the long term. It would set a clear precedent that anyone with nuclear weapons can take what they want with no downsides, and there's no coming back from that. > I bet you the rebuilding phase will also involve American cos. It probably will, and there will probably be corruption and looting and backhanders. It's going to suck, but there's no scenario in which the next ten or twenty years of being Ukraine doesn't suck. Kicking out Russia quickly and getting on with the rebuilding, ideally with international support for all the waste that that will involve, is the least-bad future.