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What I find ironic is that as businesses leave China, they move into the exact same type of culture in Vietnam and India. Vietnam is basically a mini China and

What I find ironic is that as businesses leave China, they move into the exact same type of culture in Vietnam and India. Vietnam is basically a mini China and India is trending towards the same authoritarian regime that most people find distasteful. The entire western world is so addicted to cheap labor I don't know what would happen when there is no more cheap labor to be found. There will be a huge social disruption when everyone everywhere in the world demands 100k salary a year with social benefits. That or AGIs come out and we get a disruption on the same scale. Fun fact, Vietnam is moving from 5 days work week to 6 days work week while the rest of us are demanding 4 days work week here in the US.

catothedev 4y ago
I've spent years in both China and Vietnam. I also used to believe the common phrase that Vietnam was a "mini China". Reality is different. It's no where near as repressive. Real Christianity & Buddhism is all over the place. Everyday people don't speak with the self-censorship I've seen in China (and I don't certainly don't censor myself the way I felt forced to in China). The internet is no where near as censored (or softly censored) as in China! This is a night-and-day level of difference. Ironically, in some regards, VN is more capitalist than the USA. Just go down any average street in Saigon and see how many entrepreneurs you find. And never saw 'chengguan' bossing people around in VN. Part of the reality is that communist policies failed so hard in VN after the communist takeover, many people had no choice but to stand-up-against-policy and be entrepreneurs regardless of official laws and that is baked into the culture now. Part of the reason VN's communist party isn't as powerful as China's communist party is because it does not have as much resources. But I would argue that part of the reason is the government really doesn't have the desire to be anywhere near as heavy-handed as the CCP. At some level, Vietnam seems to me like 'one big family' with a certain level of warmth to it, whereas China is just too big with too many intra-China conflicts for Chinese people to extend trust to other Chinese people. In my experience, there is a much further sense of distance in relations with PRC Chinese people (not e.g. Taiwan Chinese) that is difficult to overcome. People in the US/Europe forget that Vietnam had a border conflict with China following the France/VN US/VN conflicts -- the difference about the China conflict is that China truly does want to take over some of Vietnam's land for keeps -- this is understandably ingrained in everyday Vietnamese people's minds. Everyday VN people are commonly quite welcoming to visually-obvious-foreigners, whereas everyday PRC Chinese people are often times quite wary. Vietnam also operates within ASEAN. Singapore/Malaysia/Thailand/Indonesia/Philippines political opinions and security concerns impact Vietnam. I would say things in VN have changed a bit since Nguyen Phu Trong's leadership and Covid (globally democracy on average has taken a step back during this timeframe), but I've come to realize that calling Vietnam a "mini China" misses many important points.
Krasnol 4y ago
It's not as much about "cheap work" but about "cheaper work" and there will always be cheaper work somewhere.
toomuchtodo 4y ago
The world will adapt when labor becomes scarce, it will have no other choice. The more scarce labor is, the more pricing power it has. Arguing over “what if AGI” is like arguing about nuclear war and winter. It might happen, but no plans you form for it will survive contact with reality, so there is very little value in spending cycles on optimizing for it.
- politelemon 4y ago
  I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.
  - akira2501 4y ago
    This view seems inconsistent. Artificial manipulation is not sustainable in the long term. The ability to continually create conditions that lead to cheap labor is limited and will eventually fail.
    - auggierose 4y ago
      With AI+capital on the manipulating side I am not sure there are any limits.
      - akira2501 4y ago
        AI is not magic, neither is capital for that matter. To perform any function in the world, it needs some type of physical form or device to do so. These devices take capital to manufacture and maintain. They're also vulnerable to intentional damage. There are obvious limits.
        auggierose 4y ago
        Capital = physical AI = control of how to wield the Capital and defend against intentional damage What are the obvious limits?
mr90210 4y ago
One could argue that there is great value on being able to operate in different countries rather than centralize operations or manufacture in a single country.
inconceivable 4y ago
indeed. vietnam is run by the communist party of vietnam. remember, they won the war. that's why there is no south vietnam and north vietnam anymore (unlike korea). there is no free speech. there is no rule of law. there is no free market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam i wonder how long it will take before we start hearing "i hate the VCP but i love vietnamese people/culture". probably when they get powerful enough to challenge the regional US interest in anything significant.
- DiscourseFan 4y ago
  The US and Vietnam are very strong allies now, its unlikely that will ever happen.
  - tomohelix 4y ago
    I don't think we have an alliance with Vietnam. AFAIK, there is no US base or military agreement or anything indicating a higher relationship than trade partner. In fact, a few times DC sent some diplomats to Vietnam, the govt over there responded by sending their diplomats to China. Basically saying they prefer China over the US. It makes sense to them since China is closer and have higher trade value than the US. But because of that I don't see how Vietnam can be a "strong ally" to the US. Can you explain more or cite your sources?
    - DiscourseFan 4y ago
      https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/30/vietnamese-see-u-s-as-key-ally/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/30/vietnamese-... I read this a few years ago, not sure how much it reflects reality. Anecdotally, immigration from Vietnam is still strong, except the more recent immigrants I've met are pro-communist (as opposed to the first and second generations of Vietnamese immediately following the war). I'd imagine that the US and Vietnam are allies in the same way that Israel and Egypt are allies. Publicly, they have to show opposition, but privately they work together economically, militarily, and everyone knows that they aren't actually at odds with each other.
web3-is-a-scam 4y ago
And many of the Vietnamese factories are owned by China.
muyuu 4y ago
India perhaps, in the long term, could challenge the US directly - but the idea that Vietnam or Thailand would openly challenge the USA in a hot conflict is laughable culture is not the reason these people are leaving China, but an open hostility towards foreigners during recent years that is creating a very difficult position for expats living there
- tomohelix 4y ago
  Let say China and the US come into open conflict and everyone is forced to choose a side, which side do you think Vietnam will pick? China and Vietnam share a long history and culture. They are also right next to each other and have the same government type. Vietnam has openly showed their desire to work with China at the cost of the US. They sent some top diplomats to China right after the US diplomats came to visit them. That is pretty clear to me which country they prefer more. Investing in Vietnam is basically the same thing as investing in China in the past. It will end the same way, with a strengthened opponent in Asia.
  - partiallypro 4y ago
    A vast majority of Vietnamese view China in a worse light than the US, and China and Vietnam have recently had quarrels over the South China Sea. They share a lot of history...and some of that history includes China invading Vietnam several times. I wouldn't count on Vietnam siding with China in a global conflict.
    - _kava 4y ago
      >I wouldn't count on Vietnam siding with China in a global conflict. The last global conflict had the current Vietnamese government sided with China and the USSR against the US. I think you already lost that bet. I would like to ask you for sources on Vietnamese sentiment regarding China and the US. But that is probably irrelevant. What the majority of Vietnamese think ultimately doesn't mean anything, because it isn't a democracy. What the communist party think is more important. And I would bet two communist parties are probably chummier with each other than with the US.
croutonwagon 4y ago
Having traveled to Vietnam AND being a bit of a history buff, especially on US war history (and theres a “bit” of an intersection there). Can you explain how? They are a communist government sure and to get fairly large as a private company you do have to cut the government in (ie: Vin company, Viettel, Sunworld etc) but they do appear to be much less repressive and much more open than say a china. Especially socially.
- arroz 4y ago
  China was also much more open and less repressive 10-20 years ago
- tomohelix 4y ago
  I think for Vietnam, it is more that they couldn't afford to be repressive, not that they don't want to. They are still relatively underdeveloped. Cracking down too hard on dissidents would hurt their FDI from places like the US. Not to mention they probably don't have the money and manpower to spare on that. China was the same when they were at the stage Vietnam is in now. And it is very likely Vietnam will do what China is doing now soon enough. I have been to Vietnam too and I think for the time I stayed there, I got to experience a pretty authentic feel for their political and cultural systems. And all it reminds me of is China, a decade or two ago.
  - croutonwagon 4y ago
    Thats fair. I have never been to China but have worked witb folks that have. They have to take some….extra precautions traveling there. Vietnam seems much more open. Their internet is largely open and accessible. Even easy to register sims. They have no quarantine or vaccine requirements for entry or visa etc. All in all much more open and light. Similarly in good company they would be fairly open about the government and problems etc. It definately isnt on the same level of freedom as America but definitely didnt seem as repressive as china and i didnt see the will there to move that way. In fact they seem like they wanted to remain open for the financial benefits of doing business in the west.
onos 4y ago
I don’t believe the average western person would care at all if they could afford fewer cheap products. Corporate profits would certainly go down.
- _-david-_ 4y ago
  >I don’t believe the average western person would care at all if they could afford fewer cheap products I don't think this is the case. The average person wants a lot of things for cheap. Also, more expensive items like computers and phones would increase in price. People like having the newest phones, but might be priced out of it if it increased.
- mikrotikker 4y ago
  I am mocked for seeking non-china made goods, and paying extra for it. Predictably from my (boomer) parents who see no problem with funding china and getting low quality goods that break... its so cheap they have no problem simply buying another one. If we were importing cheap gold jewellery from nazi germany they'd be all about it.
ren_engineer 4y ago
>What I find ironic is that as businesses leave China, they move into the exact same type of culture in Vietnam and India most of those are just Chinese shell companies or doing final assembly on parts made in China to get around sanctions and as a PR stunt by big companies to appease DC by claiming they are moving out of China
FpUser 4y ago
>"The entire western world is so addicted to cheap labor " This is the only thing that allows rich to get richer while still keeping peasants under the boiling point. Without cheap labor living standard in developed countries would drop like a rock. What comes after nobody knows.
A_D_E_P_T 4y ago
> Fun fact, Vietnam is moving from 5 days work week to 6 days work week This is literally because they need to increase manufacturing output and efficacy if they're to have a hope of competing with China's economies of scale. (It's probably not going to work out, on the whole, and a large amount of Vietnamese "manufacturing" is tightening the screws on products that were 90% assembled in China.) > while the rest of us are demanding 4 days work week here in the US. This is because a huge chunk of American jobs are bullshit make-work. If the US had a better legal/regulatory system, you could move to a three-day work week and nobody would notice a thing.

catothedev 4y ago

I've spent years in both China and Vietnam. I also used to believe the common phrase that Vietnam was a "mini China". Reality is different. It's no where near as repressive. Real Christianity & Buddhism is all over the place. Everyday people don't speak with the self-censorship I've seen in China (and I don't certainly don't censor myself the way I felt forced to in China). The internet is no where near as censored (or softly censored) as in China! This is a night-and-day level of difference. Ironically, in some regards, VN is more capitalist than the USA. Just go down any average street in Saigon and see how many entrepreneurs you find. And never saw 'chengguan' bossing people around in VN. Part of the reality is that communist policies failed so hard in VN after the communist takeover, many people had no choice but to stand-up-against-policy and be entrepreneurs regardless of official laws and that is baked into the culture now. Part of the reason VN's communist party isn't as powerful as China's communist party is because it does not have as much resources. But I would argue that part of the reason is the government really doesn't have the desire to be anywhere near as heavy-handed as the CCP. At some level, Vietnam seems to me like 'one big family' with a certain level of warmth to it, whereas China is just too big with too many intra-China conflicts for Chinese people to extend trust to other Chinese people. In my experience, there is a much further sense of distance in relations with PRC Chinese people (not e.g. Taiwan Chinese) that is difficult to overcome. People in the US/Europe forget that Vietnam had a border conflict with China following the France/VN US/VN conflicts -- the difference about the China conflict is that China truly does want to take over some of Vietnam's land for keeps -- this is understandably ingrained in everyday Vietnamese people's minds. Everyday VN people are commonly quite welcoming to visually-obvious-foreigners, whereas everyday PRC Chinese people are often times quite wary. Vietnam also operates within ASEAN. Singapore/Malaysia/Thailand/Indonesia/Philippines political opinions and security concerns impact Vietnam. I would say things in VN have changed a bit since Nguyen Phu Trong's leadership and Covid (globally democracy on average has taken a step back during this timeframe), but I've come to realize that calling Vietnam a "mini China" misses many important points.

Krasnol 4y ago

It's not as much about "cheap work" but about "cheaper work" and there will always be cheaper work somewhere.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

The world will adapt when labor becomes scarce, it will have no other choice. The more scarce labor is, the more pricing power it has. Arguing over “what if AGI” is like arguing about nuclear war and winter. It might happen, but no plans you form for it will survive contact with reality, so there is very little value in spending cycles on optimizing for it.

politelemon 4y ago
I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.
- akira2501 4y ago
  This view seems inconsistent. Artificial manipulation is not sustainable in the long term. The ability to continually create conditions that lead to cheap labor is limited and will eventually fail.
  - auggierose 4y ago
    With AI+capital on the manipulating side I am not sure there are any limits.
    - akira2501 4y ago
      AI is not magic, neither is capital for that matter. To perform any function in the world, it needs some type of physical form or device to do so. These devices take capital to manufacture and maintain. They're also vulnerable to intentional damage. There are obvious limits.
      - auggierose 4y ago
        Capital = physical AI = control of how to wield the Capital and defend against intentional damage What are the obvious limits?

mr90210 4y ago

One could argue that there is great value on being able to operate in different countries rather than centralize operations or manufacture in a single country.

inconceivable 4y ago

indeed. vietnam is run by the communist party of vietnam. remember, they won the war. that's why there is no south vietnam and north vietnam anymore (unlike korea). there is no free speech. there is no rule of law. there is no free market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam i wonder how long it will take before we start hearing "i hate the VCP but i love vietnamese people/culture". probably when they get powerful enough to challenge the regional US interest in anything significant.

DiscourseFan 4y ago
The US and Vietnam are very strong allies now, its unlikely that will ever happen.
- tomohelix 4y ago
  I don't think we have an alliance with Vietnam. AFAIK, there is no US base or military agreement or anything indicating a higher relationship than trade partner. In fact, a few times DC sent some diplomats to Vietnam, the govt over there responded by sending their diplomats to China. Basically saying they prefer China over the US. It makes sense to them since China is closer and have higher trade value than the US. But because of that I don't see how Vietnam can be a "strong ally" to the US. Can you explain more or cite your sources?
  - DiscourseFan 4y ago
    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/30/vietnamese-see-u-s-as-key-ally/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/30/vietnamese-... I read this a few years ago, not sure how much it reflects reality. Anecdotally, immigration from Vietnam is still strong, except the more recent immigrants I've met are pro-communist (as opposed to the first and second generations of Vietnamese immediately following the war). I'd imagine that the US and Vietnam are allies in the same way that Israel and Egypt are allies. Publicly, they have to show opposition, but privately they work together economically, militarily, and everyone knows that they aren't actually at odds with each other.

web3-is-a-scam 4y ago

And many of the Vietnamese factories are owned by China.

muyuu 4y ago

India perhaps, in the long term, could challenge the US directly - but the idea that Vietnam or Thailand would openly challenge the USA in a hot conflict is laughable culture is not the reason these people are leaving China, but an open hostility towards foreigners during recent years that is creating a very difficult position for expats living there

tomohelix 4y ago
Let say China and the US come into open conflict and everyone is forced to choose a side, which side do you think Vietnam will pick? China and Vietnam share a long history and culture. They are also right next to each other and have the same government type. Vietnam has openly showed their desire to work with China at the cost of the US. They sent some top diplomats to China right after the US diplomats came to visit them. That is pretty clear to me which country they prefer more. Investing in Vietnam is basically the same thing as investing in China in the past. It will end the same way, with a strengthened opponent in Asia.
- partiallypro 4y ago
  A vast majority of Vietnamese view China in a worse light than the US, and China and Vietnam have recently had quarrels over the South China Sea. They share a lot of history...and some of that history includes China invading Vietnam several times. I wouldn't count on Vietnam siding with China in a global conflict.
  - _kava 4y ago
    >I wouldn't count on Vietnam siding with China in a global conflict. The last global conflict had the current Vietnamese government sided with China and the USSR against the US. I think you already lost that bet. I would like to ask you for sources on Vietnamese sentiment regarding China and the US. But that is probably irrelevant. What the majority of Vietnamese think ultimately doesn't mean anything, because it isn't a democracy. What the communist party think is more important. And I would bet two communist parties are probably chummier with each other than with the US.

croutonwagon 4y ago

Having traveled to Vietnam AND being a bit of a history buff, especially on US war history (and theres a “bit” of an intersection there). Can you explain how? They are a communist government sure and to get fairly large as a private company you do have to cut the government in (ie: Vin company, Viettel, Sunworld etc) but they do appear to be much less repressive and much more open than say a china. Especially socially.

arroz 4y ago
China was also much more open and less repressive 10-20 years ago
tomohelix 4y ago
I think for Vietnam, it is more that they couldn't afford to be repressive, not that they don't want to. They are still relatively underdeveloped. Cracking down too hard on dissidents would hurt their FDI from places like the US. Not to mention they probably don't have the money and manpower to spare on that. China was the same when they were at the stage Vietnam is in now. And it is very likely Vietnam will do what China is doing now soon enough. I have been to Vietnam too and I think for the time I stayed there, I got to experience a pretty authentic feel for their political and cultural systems. And all it reminds me of is China, a decade or two ago.
- croutonwagon 4y ago
  Thats fair. I have never been to China but have worked witb folks that have. They have to take some….extra precautions traveling there. Vietnam seems much more open. Their internet is largely open and accessible. Even easy to register sims. They have no quarantine or vaccine requirements for entry or visa etc. All in all much more open and light. Similarly in good company they would be fairly open about the government and problems etc. It definately isnt on the same level of freedom as America but definitely didnt seem as repressive as china and i didnt see the will there to move that way. In fact they seem like they wanted to remain open for the financial benefits of doing business in the west.

onos 4y ago

I don’t believe the average western person would care at all if they could afford fewer cheap products. Corporate profits would certainly go down.

_-david-_ 4y ago
>I don’t believe the average western person would care at all if they could afford fewer cheap products I don't think this is the case. The average person wants a lot of things for cheap. Also, more expensive items like computers and phones would increase in price. People like having the newest phones, but might be priced out of it if it increased.
mikrotikker 4y ago
I am mocked for seeking non-china made goods, and paying extra for it. Predictably from my (boomer) parents who see no problem with funding china and getting low quality goods that break... its so cheap they have no problem simply buying another one. If we were importing cheap gold jewellery from nazi germany they'd be all about it.

ren_engineer 4y ago

>What I find ironic is that as businesses leave China, they move into the exact same type of culture in Vietnam and India most of those are just Chinese shell companies or doing final assembly on parts made in China to get around sanctions and as a PR stunt by big companies to appease DC by claiming they are moving out of China

FpUser 4y ago

>"The entire western world is so addicted to cheap labor " This is the only thing that allows rich to get richer while still keeping peasants under the boiling point. Without cheap labor living standard in developed countries would drop like a rock. What comes after nobody knows.

A_D_E_P_T 4y ago

> Fun fact, Vietnam is moving from 5 days work week to 6 days work week This is literally because they need to increase manufacturing output and efficacy if they're to have a hope of competing with China's economies of scale. (It's probably not going to work out, on the whole, and a large amount of Vietnamese "manufacturing" is tightening the screws on products that were 90% assembled in China.) > while the rest of us are demanding 4 days work week here in the US. This is because a huge chunk of American jobs are bullshit make-work. If the US had a better legal/regulatory system, you could move to a three-day work week and nobody would notice a thing.