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Man, this was more serious than I thought. They rushed to get the whole thing done during the weekend and pushed it through bypassing all the shareholders. Thi

Man, this was more serious than I thought. They rushed to get the whole thing done during the weekend and pushed it through bypassing all the shareholders. This year is getting worse by the minute. Insane inflation killing many industries. AI threatening to take jobs - and probably actually taking a few art jobs. Now cascading bank runs and the end of one of the oldest banks in the world as an independent entity.

baq 4y ago
What a week right?
- koolba 4y ago
  The week is just starting…
  - layer8 4y ago
    Not in Europe: https://c.tadst.com/gfx/1200x675/map--first-day-of-the-week.png https://c.tadst.com/gfx/1200x675/map--first-day-of-the-week....
- rvz 4y ago
  It is just the beginning. It can affect even some ‘Systemically important banks’. Perhaps CS was the unsafest SIB of them all. They are ‘Too big to fail’ until they fail.
  - lmm 4y ago
    CS has been lurching from crisis to crisis for as long as I can remember. The tide doesn't have to go out very far when they've been swimming naked for years now.
tempsy 4y ago
…what industries are being killed by “insane inflation”? ironically long duration tech stocks and crypto have been surging all year and outperforming basically every other sector
- worrycue 4y ago
  I heard shipping containers have been piling up at China’s ports and China exports are way down - with quite a few factory suspending operations. Supposedly the US stopped buying because inflation means people focus on the necessities like food.
  - cwilkes 4y ago
    If people stopped buying then inflation would go down dramatically.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      Prices may stay the same if supply goes down in concert with demand.
  - rabbit_1 4y ago
    Likely because multinational firms have been steadily shifting their supply chain and manufacturing out of China
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    Container movement has been erratic since 2020. I would look deeper before inferring causes for piles of them. (Once you actually get evidence of piles of them, because it seems you don't have that yet.) There are many people that track actual goods. It's better than looking for a proxy.
  - ChuckMcM 4y ago
    The thought experiment then is to ask "What mechanisms connect Chinese exports with inflation?" To get a better understanding of that, one might "rewind" time to look back at what those containers were carrying when there was a container shortage. Since containers are a mechanism for moving goods, one might look at supply and demand of goods to try to understand what that relationship is. Historically, when supplies are tight, retailers order the same order from multiple suppliers in the hope that one of them will come through. This typically results in adding production capacity to meet this "shadow" demand (there are orders for 300 widgets but the retailer on the other end really only wants 100 widgets, they have just ordered 100 from three different distributors who each passed on that order to the factory). When the factories ramp up to cover that shadow demand, they put a lot of product into the distribution channel but retailer cancels their other two orders after one is filled. As a result there is now 2x the "demand" level sitting in distribution. The next time the retailer orders, their orders are satisfied out of existing stock. Until the distributors have worked through this "excess" they don't order anything from the factories and the factories have nothing to do and don't need to ship anything so the containers sit there empty. This "boom" and "bust" cycle is an oscillation that occurs in systems that are not critically damped (a term from systems analysis). During the 2020/2021 years a lot of demand was unmet and we had the "supply chain crisis." Once things ramped up, it is expected to have an "over supply" crisis.
egwor 4y ago
Just take note that mergers of CS and UBS have been discussed a few times over the past 20 years. Don’t be fooled into thinking that there wasn’t a lot of planning/analysis already done for this. In fact it might even have happened the other way around in 2008 and again there was no doubt planning for that too!
- lolive 4y ago
  Didn’t all the plans lead to the conclusion that it was a bad deal for UBS?
  - egwor 4y ago
    Yeah, but they’ll have at least thought out how this could work.
neuronic 4y ago
This is hyperbole at its finest. Can you name a few industries that have been killed? Which artists and writers aside from pretentious copy cats are getting replaced by AI?
- worrycue 4y ago
  China’s exports I heard are down and shipping containers are actually piling up at their ports. I feel artists selling “generic art” for pictures in lobbies and homes are probably going to be out of a job.
  - thebradbain 4y ago
    The vast majority of artists don’t make a living selling the “generic art” that enthusiasts are so sure AI will disrupt (and if they do, certainly not individual pieces to hotels/coffee shops/etc, but bulk licensing through agencies) At most it would be replacing one licensing middleman for another.
    - worrycue 4y ago
      > bulk licensing through agencies And the agencies pay the artists, yes? Now you can just get art from MidJourney and skip the artists.
  - curiousObject 4y ago
    “Piling up” should be visible. Is there photo or satellite evidence of that?
JUNGLEISMASSIVE 4y ago
[dead]
m3kw9 4y ago
You lost me when you say AI threatening to take jobs as one of the comparables
- benjaminwootton 4y ago
  In the space of 12 weeks, AI seems to have come from nowhere to now having the skills to replace lots of knowledge workers and creatives. Though there is some way to go, I think it’s pretty bleak and scary for employment prospects.

baq 4y ago

What a week right?

koolba 4y ago
The week is just starting…
- layer8 4y ago
  Not in Europe: https://c.tadst.com/gfx/1200x675/map--first-day-of-the-week.png https://c.tadst.com/gfx/1200x675/map--first-day-of-the-week....
rvz 4y ago
It is just the beginning. It can affect even some ‘Systemically important banks’. Perhaps CS was the unsafest SIB of them all. They are ‘Too big to fail’ until they fail.
- lmm 4y ago
  CS has been lurching from crisis to crisis for as long as I can remember. The tide doesn't have to go out very far when they've been swimming naked for years now.

tempsy 4y ago

…what industries are being killed by “insane inflation”? ironically long duration tech stocks and crypto have been surging all year and outperforming basically every other sector

worrycue 4y ago
I heard shipping containers have been piling up at China’s ports and China exports are way down - with quite a few factory suspending operations. Supposedly the US stopped buying because inflation means people focus on the necessities like food.
- cwilkes 4y ago
  If people stopped buying then inflation would go down dramatically.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    Prices may stay the same if supply goes down in concert with demand.
- rabbit_1 4y ago
  Likely because multinational firms have been steadily shifting their supply chain and manufacturing out of China
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  Container movement has been erratic since 2020. I would look deeper before inferring causes for piles of them. (Once you actually get evidence of piles of them, because it seems you don't have that yet.) There are many people that track actual goods. It's better than looking for a proxy.
- ChuckMcM 4y ago
  The thought experiment then is to ask "What mechanisms connect Chinese exports with inflation?" To get a better understanding of that, one might "rewind" time to look back at what those containers were carrying when there was a container shortage. Since containers are a mechanism for moving goods, one might look at supply and demand of goods to try to understand what that relationship is. Historically, when supplies are tight, retailers order the same order from multiple suppliers in the hope that one of them will come through. This typically results in adding production capacity to meet this "shadow" demand (there are orders for 300 widgets but the retailer on the other end really only wants 100 widgets, they have just ordered 100 from three different distributors who each passed on that order to the factory). When the factories ramp up to cover that shadow demand, they put a lot of product into the distribution channel but retailer cancels their other two orders after one is filled. As a result there is now 2x the "demand" level sitting in distribution. The next time the retailer orders, their orders are satisfied out of existing stock. Until the distributors have worked through this "excess" they don't order anything from the factories and the factories have nothing to do and don't need to ship anything so the containers sit there empty. This "boom" and "bust" cycle is an oscillation that occurs in systems that are not critically damped (a term from systems analysis). During the 2020/2021 years a lot of demand was unmet and we had the "supply chain crisis." Once things ramped up, it is expected to have an "over supply" crisis.

egwor 4y ago

Just take note that mergers of CS and UBS have been discussed a few times over the past 20 years. Don’t be fooled into thinking that there wasn’t a lot of planning/analysis already done for this. In fact it might even have happened the other way around in 2008 and again there was no doubt planning for that too!

lolive 4y ago
Didn’t all the plans lead to the conclusion that it was a bad deal for UBS?
- egwor 4y ago
  Yeah, but they’ll have at least thought out how this could work.

neuronic 4y ago

This is hyperbole at its finest. Can you name a few industries that have been killed? Which artists and writers aside from pretentious copy cats are getting replaced by AI?

worrycue 4y ago
China’s exports I heard are down and shipping containers are actually piling up at their ports. I feel artists selling “generic art” for pictures in lobbies and homes are probably going to be out of a job.
- thebradbain 4y ago
  The vast majority of artists don’t make a living selling the “generic art” that enthusiasts are so sure AI will disrupt (and if they do, certainly not individual pieces to hotels/coffee shops/etc, but bulk licensing through agencies) At most it would be replacing one licensing middleman for another.
  - worrycue 4y ago
    > bulk licensing through agencies And the agencies pay the artists, yes? Now you can just get art from MidJourney and skip the artists.
- curiousObject 4y ago
  “Piling up” should be visible. Is there photo or satellite evidence of that?

JUNGLEISMASSIVE 4y ago

[dead]

m3kw9 4y ago

You lost me when you say AI threatening to take jobs as one of the comparables

benjaminwootton 4y ago
In the space of 12 weeks, AI seems to have come from nowhere to now having the skills to replace lots of knowledge workers and creatives. Though there is some way to go, I think it’s pretty bleak and scary for employment prospects.