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I know the analogy of the day is AI, but I’ll make the case for cryptocurrency as the better analogy. I think everybody sees potential use for AI - probably mor

I know the analogy of the day is AI, but I’ll make the case for cryptocurrency as the better analogy. I think everybody sees potential use for AI - probably more than it can actually do. The technology that I hear being called “useless”, “pure speculative hype” etc is crypto and defi. Maybe today, because of lack of infrastructure, network effects, productized apps, etc it’s not as useful as traditional banking and fiat currency, but the reality is that there’s a future where we don’t need banks and nationalized currencies, and that is an enormous value-add for society as a whole. It may not happen today, 10 or even 100 years from now, but we will look back and find the idea that people had to be convinced of this absurd.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
The thing is - AI is a very apt analogy today. People outside the tech sphere often think it's a toy, but don't see the real productive uses of LLMs, for example. In contrast, today's version of crypto has had its popular moment. Like the dirigible, it got a lot of mainstream coverage as a "promising" "revolutionary" technology, and it has made its millionaires and billionaires. Like the dirigible, it has been found wanting. There is some chance that the future will involve CBDCs, but I think most people agree that the ship has sailed on the Bitcoin-Ethereum-NFT-based "metaverse" that crypto entrepreneurs wanted to create.
- junofan 4y ago
  There are billboards everywhere touting AI. My mom talks about it.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    I see you live in the San Francisco bay. If you go outside that little bubble, you won't see very many billboards advertising anything other than personal injury lawyers, restaurants, and casinos.
    - localplume 4y ago
      [dead]
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - jondwillis 4y ago
      A friend’s sister came into town from Nashville, and I had the pleasure of explaining what ChatGPT was to her.
k__ 4y ago
While I think that much of what crypto bros did is quite the waste of time and money, I believe that it has potential to be revolutionary. If something really different has to start these days, centralized services are an easy target for the powers that be. The only way to circumvent them are truly decentralised systems.
himinlomax 4y ago
Remind me of the saying: "They laughed at Galileo; but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." NFT/cryptos are the Bozo the Clown of technological innovations.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
Crypto doesn't harm anyone who doesn't choose to buy into the get rich quick schemes. If some people somewhere trade crypto between them, it's none of your business. AI, on the other hand, harms millions of people right now - by government surveillance, face recognition, spam bots and SEO, deep fakes, exam cheating, job losses, killer drones etc., with almost no upside for the little guy.
- Tepix 4y ago
  It's the other way round: Crypto mining has wasted an awesome amount of resources and is still ongoing despite energy shortages, mass extinctions, air pollution from coal plants and global warming.
  - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
    AI also uses a lot of energy, for no benefit. And traditional money system wastes even more energy and other resources, and employs millions of clerks doing meaningless work.
    - Tepix 4y ago
      You don't see any benefits of AI?
ninepoints 4y ago
This isn't an argument. By this logic, you could just as easily say that in the future, people will look back and scoff at the amount of time and energy wasted chasing a form of decentralized currency rife with problems that would never be solved at scale. You can't presuppose a conclusion and then extrapolate from it.
- plaidfuji 4y ago
  It’s true, all I’m doing is speculating, but that’s all anybody is doing here. This article didn’t make it to the front page because it’s rich with content about how electricity companies ran a successful marketing campaign to evangelize the use cases for electricity. It’s basically a newspaper clipping and a few paragraphs of summary. It’s here because people are projecting their feelings about today’s disruptive technologies onto this example about electricity, with the implication that people will one day look back and wonder why anyone doubted <technology X>. Here’s what I’m saying: AI is a part of our future, and very few people doubt that. AR/metaverse may not be perfect today but I think most people would agree it’s bound to be part of our future. Green tech stuff like electric cars, renewable energy, etc most people agree are part of the future and won’t argue with you. But for some reason, when you so much as whisper “crypto” on HN, people shout you down with rude and dismissive comments (not yours, but take a look around). I don’t work in crypto, I don’t have substantial holdings in crypto, I’m not shilling. I’m just saying that as a technology, it feels the most misunderstood despite its (to me) obvious transformative potential, which I think makes it the best analogy for electricity in the early 1900s of the available options. Does that argument hinge on the assumption that crypto is an inevitable part of future life? Yes - but so does every other argument here.

pclmulqdq 4y ago

The thing is - AI is a very apt analogy today. People outside the tech sphere often think it's a toy, but don't see the real productive uses of LLMs, for example. In contrast, today's version of crypto has had its popular moment. Like the dirigible, it got a lot of mainstream coverage as a "promising" "revolutionary" technology, and it has made its millionaires and billionaires. Like the dirigible, it has been found wanting. There is some chance that the future will involve CBDCs, but I think most people agree that the ship has sailed on the Bitcoin-Ethereum-NFT-based "metaverse" that crypto entrepreneurs wanted to create.

junofan 4y ago
There are billboards everywhere touting AI. My mom talks about it.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  I see you live in the San Francisco bay. If you go outside that little bubble, you won't see very many billboards advertising anything other than personal injury lawyers, restaurants, and casinos.
  - localplume 4y ago
    [dead]
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - jondwillis 4y ago
    A friend’s sister came into town from Nashville, and I had the pleasure of explaining what ChatGPT was to her.

k__ 4y ago

While I think that much of what crypto bros did is quite the waste of time and money, I believe that it has potential to be revolutionary. If something really different has to start these days, centralized services are an easy target for the powers that be. The only way to circumvent them are truly decentralised systems.

himinlomax 4y ago

Remind me of the saying: "They laughed at Galileo; but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." NFT/cryptos are the Bozo the Clown of technological innovations.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago

Crypto doesn't harm anyone who doesn't choose to buy into the get rich quick schemes. If some people somewhere trade crypto between them, it's none of your business. AI, on the other hand, harms millions of people right now - by government surveillance, face recognition, spam bots and SEO, deep fakes, exam cheating, job losses, killer drones etc., with almost no upside for the little guy.

Tepix 4y ago
It's the other way round: Crypto mining has wasted an awesome amount of resources and is still ongoing despite energy shortages, mass extinctions, air pollution from coal plants and global warming.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
  AI also uses a lot of energy, for no benefit. And traditional money system wastes even more energy and other resources, and employs millions of clerks doing meaningless work.
  - Tepix 4y ago
    You don't see any benefits of AI?

ninepoints 4y ago

This isn't an argument. By this logic, you could just as easily say that in the future, people will look back and scoff at the amount of time and energy wasted chasing a form of decentralized currency rife with problems that would never be solved at scale. You can't presuppose a conclusion and then extrapolate from it.

plaidfuji 4y ago
It’s true, all I’m doing is speculating, but that’s all anybody is doing here. This article didn’t make it to the front page because it’s rich with content about how electricity companies ran a successful marketing campaign to evangelize the use cases for electricity. It’s basically a newspaper clipping and a few paragraphs of summary. It’s here because people are projecting their feelings about today’s disruptive technologies onto this example about electricity, with the implication that people will one day look back and wonder why anyone doubted <technology X>. Here’s what I’m saying: AI is a part of our future, and very few people doubt that. AR/metaverse may not be perfect today but I think most people would agree it’s bound to be part of our future. Green tech stuff like electric cars, renewable energy, etc most people agree are part of the future and won’t argue with you. But for some reason, when you so much as whisper “crypto” on HN, people shout you down with rude and dismissive comments (not yours, but take a look around). I don’t work in crypto, I don’t have substantial holdings in crypto, I’m not shilling. I’m just saying that as a technology, it feels the most misunderstood despite its (to me) obvious transformative potential, which I think makes it the best analogy for electricity in the early 1900s of the available options. Does that argument hinge on the assumption that crypto is an inevitable part of future life? Yes - but so does every other argument here.