5 ms·

In times of crisis during war, countries may draft men into combat to fight against their will. If this fertility crisis keeps up, I wonder if we will see a sim

by fwlr 4y ago

In times of crisis during war, countries may draft men into combat to fight against their will. If this fertility crisis keeps up, I wonder if we will see a similar kind of draft for women to breed. It seems unconscionable but literal existential risks can drive countries to do a lot of unconscionable things. (Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All it achieves is to balance the birth/death rate on paper for the year.)

markdown 4y ago
You only need to gain immigrants to do work that natives won't. You don't need those immigrants to breed, no more than you need the natives to keep breeding. As more and more jobs become obsolete, a country will be able to run just fine on fewer people, so long as there are enough people to do the work that can't be automated.
- IIAOPSW 4y ago
  >You don't need those immigrants to breed Yeah, but maybe you want them ;)
64bittechie 4y ago
[dead]
Xcelerate 4y ago
> but literal existential risks Unpopular opinion (and playing devil’s advocate since I have two kids), but is it necessarily a bad thing if people stop wanting to have children and the human race just gradually disappears? There are a lot of other types of potential existential threats on the horizon that might be unsolvable and could entail a significant amount of suffering (e.g. global warming, super viruses, rogue AI)—perhaps it’s better to stop reproducing and just let things end peacefully? I can’t thing of a great argument for forcing societies to continue having children if they no longer wish to do so. Sure, you’ll have some “who will take care of all the elderly in 50 years?” but you could plan a bit for that and the problem would only last for one generation.
- throwaway290 4y ago
  > better to stop reproducing and just let things end peacefully? Prisoner's dilemma, I guess. If everyone stops reproducing, the people who keep at it secure more resources for their offspring.
  - imtringued 4y ago
    They don't. Look at African countries with up to seven children per family.
    - throwaway290 4y ago
      Reread the comment I was replying to. This is a hypothetical.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- fwlr 4y ago
  “Is it necessarily a bad thing if people stop wanting to have children and the human race just gradually disappears?” People can make up their own minds on this, but I don’t think states and governments will want to stop existing.
- exolymph 4y ago
  It's a pure hypothetical because the people who do reproduce under conditions of modernity will become the future population.
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    There is likely enough stable state populations that humanity doesn't go extinct. Now current global economy or culture might go, but if it doesn't support continued stable state existence, maybe it doesn't deserve to survive.
- imtringued 4y ago
Turskarama 4y ago
>(Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All it achieves is to balance the birth/death rate on paper for the year.) What? The reason low fertility is bad is that you end up with a proportionally small working age population, immigration doesn't "solve" low birth rates but it does solve the problem low birth rates cause. In fact it does it even better, because you have a proportionally lower number of children who are just as unproductive as retirees. The reason Japan doesn't have much immigration is because they have, shall we say, a strong desire to remain purely Japanese and don't believe immigrants can become truly Japanese.
FpUser 4y ago
For many having kids is unaffordable I guess you will have to create kids farms. So much to look forward to.
- mlhpdx 4y ago
  As the population drops resources become more accessible. The problem solves itself.
  - imtringued 4y ago
    The problem is wealthy people want to be even wealthier. Telling them they will be less wealthy won't make them happy.
et-al 4y ago
What's up with all these responses about turning women into breeding machines when the basic issue is that it's difficult to provide a decent life for a child on a single income? How about we make it not a PITA to be a mother?
- fwlr 4y ago
  We have been trying to do that for a good two decades or so. The article mentions several programs Japan has implemented to try and make not a PITA to be a mother. Doubtless we will also continue to implement more of these programs as the problem gets worse. You are seeing these “breeding machine” type posts because people are extrapolating from the current poor success rate of these programs and thinking about what more drastic steps might be taken. (Do note that I don’t approve of forcibly turning women into breeding machines, just like I don’t approve of forcibly turning men into killing machines. I did call it unconscionable.)
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
XorNot 4y ago
Christ it doesn't take much for people to go mask off on "start up the government rape squads".
- fwlr 4y ago
  Buddy, don’t get it twisted, I’m just as worried as you are about this possibility. (“Unconscionable” means “not right or reasonable; unreasonably excessive”.)
hackerlight 4y ago
> (Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All it achieves is to balance the birth/death rate on paper for the year.) If fertility rate gets depressed then just keep letting in more people. I don't see how it isn't the answer if your objective is to keep the population at a stable level.

by fwlr 4y ago

markdown 4y ago

You only need to gain immigrants to do work that natives won't. You don't need those immigrants to breed, no more than you need the natives to keep breeding. As more and more jobs become obsolete, a country will be able to run just fine on fewer people, so long as there are enough people to do the work that can't be automated.

IIAOPSW 4y ago
>You don't need those immigrants to breed Yeah, but maybe you want them ;)

64bittechie 4y ago

[dead]

Xcelerate 4y ago

> but literal existential risks Unpopular opinion (and playing devil’s advocate since I have two kids), but is it necessarily a bad thing if people stop wanting to have children and the human race just gradually disappears? There are a lot of other types of potential existential threats on the horizon that might be unsolvable and could entail a significant amount of suffering (e.g. global warming, super viruses, rogue AI)—perhaps it’s better to stop reproducing and just let things end peacefully? I can’t thing of a great argument for forcing societies to continue having children if they no longer wish to do so. Sure, you’ll have some “who will take care of all the elderly in 50 years?” but you could plan a bit for that and the problem would only last for one generation.

throwaway290 4y ago
> better to stop reproducing and just let things end peacefully? Prisoner's dilemma, I guess. If everyone stops reproducing, the people who keep at it secure more resources for their offspring.
- imtringued 4y ago
  They don't. Look at African countries with up to seven children per family.
  - throwaway290 4y ago
    Reread the comment I was replying to. This is a hypothetical.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
fwlr 4y ago
“Is it necessarily a bad thing if people stop wanting to have children and the human race just gradually disappears?” People can make up their own minds on this, but I don’t think states and governments will want to stop existing.
exolymph 4y ago
It's a pure hypothetical because the people who do reproduce under conditions of modernity will become the future population.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  There is likely enough stable state populations that humanity doesn't go extinct. Now current global economy or culture might go, but if it doesn't support continued stable state existence, maybe it doesn't deserve to survive.
imtringued 4y ago

Turskarama 4y ago

>(Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All it achieves is to balance the birth/death rate on paper for the year.) What? The reason low fertility is bad is that you end up with a proportionally small working age population, immigration doesn't "solve" low birth rates but it does solve the problem low birth rates cause. In fact it does it even better, because you have a proportionally lower number of children who are just as unproductive as retirees. The reason Japan doesn't have much immigration is because they have, shall we say, a strong desire to remain purely Japanese and don't believe immigrants can become truly Japanese.

FpUser 4y ago

For many having kids is unaffordable I guess you will have to create kids farms. So much to look forward to.

mlhpdx 4y ago
As the population drops resources become more accessible. The problem solves itself.
- imtringued 4y ago
  The problem is wealthy people want to be even wealthier. Telling them they will be less wealthy won't make them happy.

et-al 4y ago

What's up with all these responses about turning women into breeding machines when the basic issue is that it's difficult to provide a decent life for a child on a single income? How about we make it not a PITA to be a mother?

fwlr 4y ago
We have been trying to do that for a good two decades or so. The article mentions several programs Japan has implemented to try and make not a PITA to be a mother. Doubtless we will also continue to implement more of these programs as the problem gets worse. You are seeing these “breeding machine” type posts because people are extrapolating from the current poor success rate of these programs and thinking about what more drastic steps might be taken. (Do note that I don’t approve of forcibly turning women into breeding machines, just like I don’t approve of forcibly turning men into killing machines. I did call it unconscionable.)

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

XorNot 4y ago

Christ it doesn't take much for people to go mask off on "start up the government rape squads".

fwlr 4y ago
Buddy, don’t get it twisted, I’m just as worried as you are about this possibility. (“Unconscionable” means “not right or reasonable; unreasonably excessive”.)

hackerlight 4y ago

> (Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All it achieves is to balance the birth/death rate on paper for the year.) If fertility rate gets depressed then just keep letting in more people. I don't see how it isn't the answer if your objective is to keep the population at a stable level.