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> Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous robots" that start to show up in more and more households. I'm in Berlin, we had a trash collectors stri

> Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous robots" that start to show up in more and more households. I'm in Berlin, we had a trash collectors strike for 4 days, it was hell on earth, Paris is in the middle of one right now There is nothing even close to automating that, you'd need self driving trucks that handles extremely random patterns, have you ever followed a trash truck ? have you seen how they work ? Slaloming between stops cars, delivery trucks, going out in interior courtyards to bring the trash out, &c. https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9eme-jours-de-greve-des-eboueurs-parisiens-accumulation-des-dechets-sur-les-trottoirs-since-sunday-5-400-tonnes-of-waste-have-not-been-collected-according-to-a-count-by-the-paris-city-council-the-garbage-collectors-are-on-a-strike-against-the-pension-reform-near-the-square-saint-medard-paris-5-tuesday-14-march-2023-rollegilles-1400-00004-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141427-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141430 https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9... What cleaning robots do is what I do with a 5$ broom and a wet wipe, they don't even do it faster and cost hundreds of $ (and are basically walking e-waste) A 1kg robot roaming your living room has nothing to do with a 10ton truck roaming our streets. They do the """same""" job in the way a javascript code monkey does the same job as a software engineer at NASA (aka they don't) > It won't? I'm not sure. We already have power tools, heavy machinery, meanwhile: https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 The "AI will take over very soon" scenario is sci fi for now, and has been for 100 years, GPT don't go on a roof with nails and a hammer, GPT won't go work on oil platforms, GPT won't pick oranges on a tree (that's still mostly don't by hands because it's much cheaper and flexible than any alternatives: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo). > In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. Tesla cars being fully autonomous by 2020 was also a given. I don't buy the hype at all, not until we get some real world results. I think to believe that you have to: - live in a bubble in which you don't interact much with the real world - believe in some kind of singularity even that will come soon, almost in a religious manner - severely underestimate human capabilities and over estimate computers capabilities Small incremental steps and big prophecies don't automatically manifest into a revolution, this is always a good read: https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm

still_grokking 4y ago
Don't get me wrong: I don't buy the current hype either. But that doesn't mean there is nothing, and one can ignore what's there, and what's on the horizon already. All of your examples boil down to "it's not economical". There was no technological argument presented. Let's take for example the thing with the waste collection. You could fully automate the whole process even with 100 year old tech! Just build tunnels with conveyor belts under the houses. (Of course this would need still some human maintenance like what we have for water and gas, but it would not need all the trucks and human collector). The point is, that's not economical. The trucks and the human collectors are still much cheaper! But there is absolutely no technical reason that would prevent a different solution. Your example with the hundreds of Euros costing robot that still can't even do the same as a 5 Euro broom is the core here: It's all about the costs. (That's get even admitted in the oranges picking example.) But AI is in the first place actually not about robots. It's about doing cognitive tasks. Maybe AI won't replace trash collectors really soon, but it could for example replace the expertise of medical doctors or lawyers pretty soon. Still a doctor wouldn't get unemployed instantly; because we don't have human like robots that could to the physical part of the work. But we have now (almost) machines that can do the mental work. And no, I'm not living in a bubble. I'm quite skeptical about the current hype actually, as stated already. But I'm trying to maintain some realistic picture. I'm not denying technical progress. (Even I try to ignore the marketing bullshit around it.) And to be honest: I estimate the intelligence of my fellow human beings extremely low indeed. Almost all human problems are human made. But we didn't manage to solve them even over tens of thousands of years. That's imho because humans are on average dumb. Very dumb actually. At the same time there is not much to "overestimate" regarding computers. We will reach quite sure in the next 25 years a level of raw processing power that will be (at least) equivalent to the one of the human brain. As there is not "magic" involved in how brains work (they're just machines!) there is absolutely no reason why a human made machine could not reach human level of intelligence (which is in my opinion not even a very high one). So summarize: I don't "fear" anything like the current "GPTs" to take my job, or the job of a lot of people. But the (imho) inevitable will happen. And it will likely happen sooner than a lot of people would like…

still_grokking 4y ago

Don't get me wrong: I don't buy the current hype either. But that doesn't mean there is nothing, and one can ignore what's there, and what's on the horizon already. All of your examples boil down to "it's not economical". There was no technological argument presented. Let's take for example the thing with the waste collection. You could fully automate the whole process even with 100 year old tech! Just build tunnels with conveyor belts under the houses. (Of course this would need still some human maintenance like what we have for water and gas, but it would not need all the trucks and human collector). The point is, that's not economical. The trucks and the human collectors are still much cheaper! But there is absolutely no technical reason that would prevent a different solution. Your example with the hundreds of Euros costing robot that still can't even do the same as a 5 Euro broom is the core here: It's all about the costs. (That's get even admitted in the oranges picking example.) But AI is in the first place actually not about robots. It's about doing cognitive tasks. Maybe AI won't replace trash collectors really soon, but it could for example replace the expertise of medical doctors or lawyers pretty soon. Still a doctor wouldn't get unemployed instantly; because we don't have human like robots that could to the physical part of the work. But we have now (almost) machines that can do the mental work. And no, I'm not living in a bubble. I'm quite skeptical about the current hype actually, as stated already. But I'm trying to maintain some realistic picture. I'm not denying technical progress. (Even I try to ignore the marketing bullshit around it.) And to be honest: I estimate the intelligence of my fellow human beings extremely low indeed. Almost all human problems are human made. But we didn't manage to solve them even over tens of thousands of years. That's imho because humans are on average dumb. Very dumb actually. At the same time there is not much to "overestimate" regarding computers. We will reach quite sure in the next 25 years a level of raw processing power that will be (at least) equivalent to the one of the human brain. As there is not "magic" involved in how brains work (they're just machines!) there is absolutely no reason why a human made machine could not reach human level of intelligence (which is in my opinion not even a very high one). So summarize: I don't "fear" anything like the current "GPTs" to take my job, or the job of a lot of people. But the (imho) inevitable will happen. And it will likely happen sooner than a lot of people would like…