4 ms·

> Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corne

> Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner" Even that's true, simple extrapolations on raw computing power make the 15 - 25 year estimate realistic. That was definitely not the case 100 years ago. > AGI won't build a house Are you sure? Computers are already a indispensable tool when it comes to planing something like a building. Without computers the planing would be much more labor intensive and much less safe. And when it comes to the physical building: The branch of robotics for application on construction sides is more or less exploding the last few years. It won't take long and a lot of work on a building site can be almost fully automated. > AGI won't pick up your trash Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous AI powered robots" that start to show up in more and more average households. And even "simple" vacuum cleaner robots need quite some AI… So AI way below AGI is already picking up the trash; and that's just the beginning. > AGI won't mine your lithium, &c. It won't? I'm not sure. AI helps already to find new mining sites. Also like with construction sites mining is something that gets automated more and more with every year passing. All the dangerous and labor intensive but profitable tasks get automated first. That's a clear trend throughout history. I myself am very skeptical on the current AI hype. Though I'm very sure our AI Overlords are coming, and this will happen sooner as some people would like. In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. But maybe so much computing power isn't even required to reach AGI—if the used software is constructed in a smart way.

nostromo123 4y ago
Forget AGI, just make a robot that can fold laundry. I'll be here waiting :)
- still_grokking 4y ago
  https://pantor.github.io/speedfolding/ https://pantor.github.io/speedfolding/
- zamnos 4y ago
  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMT2WAUlRw https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMT2WAUlRw
lm28469 4y ago
> Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous robots" that start to show up in more and more households. I'm in Berlin, we had a trash collectors strike for 4 days, it was hell on earth, Paris is in the middle of one right now There is nothing even close to automating that, you'd need self driving trucks that handles extremely random patterns, have you ever followed a trash truck ? have you seen how they work ? Slaloming between stops cars, delivery trucks, going out in interior courtyards to bring the trash out, &c. https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9eme-jours-de-greve-des-eboueurs-parisiens-accumulation-des-dechets-sur-les-trottoirs-since-sunday-5-400-tonnes-of-waste-have-not-been-collected-according-to-a-count-by-the-paris-city-council-the-garbage-collectors-are-on-a-strike-against-the-pension-reform-near-the-square-saint-medard-paris-5-tuesday-14-march-2023-rollegilles-1400-00004-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141427-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141430 https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9... What cleaning robots do is what I do with a 5$ broom and a wet wipe, they don't even do it faster and cost hundreds of $ (and are basically walking e-waste) A 1kg robot roaming your living room has nothing to do with a 10ton truck roaming our streets. They do the """same""" job in the way a javascript code monkey does the same job as a software engineer at NASA (aka they don't) > It won't? I'm not sure. We already have power tools, heavy machinery, meanwhile: https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 The "AI will take over very soon" scenario is sci fi for now, and has been for 100 years, GPT don't go on a roof with nails and a hammer, GPT won't go work on oil platforms, GPT won't pick oranges on a tree (that's still mostly don't by hands because it's much cheaper and flexible than any alternatives: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo). > In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. Tesla cars being fully autonomous by 2020 was also a given. I don't buy the hype at all, not until we get some real world results. I think to believe that you have to: - live in a bubble in which you don't interact much with the real world - believe in some kind of singularity even that will come soon, almost in a religious manner - severely underestimate human capabilities and over estimate computers capabilities Small incremental steps and big prophecies don't automatically manifest into a revolution, this is always a good read: https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm
- 4y ago

nostromo123 4y ago

Forget AGI, just make a robot that can fold laundry. I'll be here waiting :)

still_grokking 4y ago
https://pantor.github.io/speedfolding/ https://pantor.github.io/speedfolding/
zamnos 4y ago
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMT2WAUlRw https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMT2WAUlRw

lm28469 4y ago

> Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous robots" that start to show up in more and more households. I'm in Berlin, we had a trash collectors strike for 4 days, it was hell on earth, Paris is in the middle of one right now There is nothing even close to automating that, you'd need self driving trucks that handles extremely random patterns, have you ever followed a trash truck ? have you seen how they work ? Slaloming between stops cars, delivery trucks, going out in interior courtyards to bring the trash out, &c. https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9eme-jours-de-greve-des-eboueurs-parisiens-accumulation-des-dechets-sur-les-trottoirs-since-sunday-5-400-tonnes-of-waste-have-not-been-collected-according-to-a-count-by-the-paris-city-council-the-garbage-collectors-are-on-a-strike-against-the-pension-reform-near-the-square-saint-medard-paris-5-tuesday-14-march-2023-rollegilles-1400-00004-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141427-credit-gilles-rolle-sipa-2303141430 https://img.20mn.fr/EFQNJHYBRWaIoxIj9_oa-Ck/1200x768_paris-9... What cleaning robots do is what I do with a 5$ broom and a wet wipe, they don't even do it faster and cost hundreds of $ (and are basically walking e-waste) A 1kg robot roaming your living room has nothing to do with a 10ton truck roaming our streets. They do the """same""" job in the way a javascript code monkey does the same job as a software engineer at NASA (aka they don't) > It won't? I'm not sure. We already have power tools, heavy machinery, meanwhile: https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 https://youtu.be/YiThCK0-_b0?t=231 The "AI will take over very soon" scenario is sci fi for now, and has been for 100 years, GPT don't go on a roof with nails and a hammer, GPT won't go work on oil platforms, GPT won't pick oranges on a tree (that's still mostly don't by hands because it's much cheaper and flexible than any alternatives: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lqEzz3Bo). > In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. Tesla cars being fully autonomous by 2020 was also a given. I don't buy the hype at all, not until we get some real world results. I think to believe that you have to: - live in a bubble in which you don't interact much with the real world - believe in some kind of singularity even that will come soon, almost in a religious manner - severely underestimate human capabilities and over estimate computers capabilities Small incremental steps and big prophecies don't automatically manifest into a revolution, this is always a good read: https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm https://idlewords.com/talks/web_design_first_100_years.htm

4y ago