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"AI storm", journals really don't know what bullshit to put out anymore. Just like all previous AI bubbles, this is a bubble. We'll soon realize that unless yo

"AI storm", journals really don't know what bullshit to put out anymore. Just like all previous AI bubbles, this is a bubble. We'll soon realize that unless you're writing a book, GPT is pretty much useless, and the hype will die down like it always has in the past. To think that AI who's only capability is to generate text can have any significant impact on anything is simply ridiculous.

psychphysic 4y ago
I was astounded to see an article on chatGPT4 call the programming on the livestream slow and another error prone. Neither mistake by the journo would be possible if they had any substantive experience programming.
IIAOPSW 4y ago
>who's only capability is to generate text can have any significant impact on anything is simply ridiculous. We are all just text here. So far as I know, by your metric, you never have significant impact on anything.
- iLoveOncall 4y ago
  Hum, yes, did you really think HN comments have any significant impact on anything?
  - IIAOPSW 4y ago
    Words accomplish something, certainly far more than they cost to produce, otherwise why did we start doing it and why haven't we stopped. Your hands alone won't build an empire in a thousand lifetimes. It won't even pave a complete road. For that you need to pitch a compelling argument and influence a large group to go along with your vision. These particular words here and now probably won't do much of anything. The odds of at least some of them in my corpus of hn comments going on to impact something is great enough to justify the meager cost in doing so.
lordnacho 4y ago
Eh, I'm not someone who is easily impressed, but I'm going to say LLMs are transformative (ba-dum-dum-sheeeesh). I use copilot, it definitely saves me time. At the moment just minor things, but there's no arguing, there's simply no doubt. ChatGPT will transform forum comments. Soon human written messages like this one will be swamped by machine-assisted argue-bots. And sales-bots. Other LLMs are doing images, which will be much the same. You can illustrate your book automatically, pretty much now. You can generate marketing images, now. Everything creative will be affected. Music, books, movies.
- redeeman 4y ago
  everything creative where true creativity doesnt matter :) sure, it will illustrate a book, many presentations, all sorts of stuff, but it will not create novel things as a human does. Sure, it can produce a smattering of what it was trained on, it will not produce new original well thought out masterpieces. think about how it works for a moment, sure, its great, very nice, simple chores can be done with some reasonable effectiveness. but people are clearly expecting things that an LLM simply isnt meant or capable of doing
  - bluescrn 4y ago
    > everything creative where true creativity doesnt matter So it'll be fine replacing most of Hollywood, videogames, and pop music then...
  - lordnacho 4y ago
    Had this discussion the other day, never got an answer from the thread. What is true creativity? What is a novel thing? If we establish that it isn't merely a mix of existing things, what is it? I don't have an answer other than actually maybe these things it makes actually are novel. If you have another take on it I'd be interested to hear why nothing it makes is novel, and nothing from the LLM family of algos can ever make something that qualifies?
    - alienicecream 4y ago
pzo 4y ago
Most software developers are doing nothing else than generating text - code. And if you take into account only this industry it definitely had significant impact on society just within a few decades. Current AI is not good enough to replace software developers but in 10-20 years maybe will be good enough to replace just every second one == 50% of devs
- ddevault 4y ago
  It will, if anything, cull the bottom performers. It's essentially an incremental improvement on a script which searches stack overflow for a query and copy/pastes the first result into your program. Having tried it on more interesting systems-level work it does little to nothing to augment productivity.

psychphysic 4y ago

I was astounded to see an article on chatGPT4 call the programming on the livestream slow and another error prone. Neither mistake by the journo would be possible if they had any substantive experience programming.

IIAOPSW 4y ago

>who's only capability is to generate text can have any significant impact on anything is simply ridiculous. We are all just text here. So far as I know, by your metric, you never have significant impact on anything.

iLoveOncall 4y ago
Hum, yes, did you really think HN comments have any significant impact on anything?
- IIAOPSW 4y ago
  Words accomplish something, certainly far more than they cost to produce, otherwise why did we start doing it and why haven't we stopped. Your hands alone won't build an empire in a thousand lifetimes. It won't even pave a complete road. For that you need to pitch a compelling argument and influence a large group to go along with your vision. These particular words here and now probably won't do much of anything. The odds of at least some of them in my corpus of hn comments going on to impact something is great enough to justify the meager cost in doing so.

lordnacho 4y ago

Eh, I'm not someone who is easily impressed, but I'm going to say LLMs are transformative (ba-dum-dum-sheeeesh). I use copilot, it definitely saves me time. At the moment just minor things, but there's no arguing, there's simply no doubt. ChatGPT will transform forum comments. Soon human written messages like this one will be swamped by machine-assisted argue-bots. And sales-bots. Other LLMs are doing images, which will be much the same. You can illustrate your book automatically, pretty much now. You can generate marketing images, now. Everything creative will be affected. Music, books, movies.

redeeman 4y ago
everything creative where true creativity doesnt matter :) sure, it will illustrate a book, many presentations, all sorts of stuff, but it will not create novel things as a human does. Sure, it can produce a smattering of what it was trained on, it will not produce new original well thought out masterpieces. think about how it works for a moment, sure, its great, very nice, simple chores can be done with some reasonable effectiveness. but people are clearly expecting things that an LLM simply isnt meant or capable of doing
- bluescrn 4y ago
  > everything creative where true creativity doesnt matter So it'll be fine replacing most of Hollywood, videogames, and pop music then...
- lordnacho 4y ago
  Had this discussion the other day, never got an answer from the thread. What is true creativity? What is a novel thing? If we establish that it isn't merely a mix of existing things, what is it? I don't have an answer other than actually maybe these things it makes actually are novel. If you have another take on it I'd be interested to hear why nothing it makes is novel, and nothing from the LLM family of algos can ever make something that qualifies?
  - alienicecream 4y ago

pzo 4y ago

Most software developers are doing nothing else than generating text - code. And if you take into account only this industry it definitely had significant impact on society just within a few decades. Current AI is not good enough to replace software developers but in 10-20 years maybe will be good enough to replace just every second one == 50% of devs

ddevault 4y ago
It will, if anything, cull the bottom performers. It's essentially an incremental improvement on a script which searches stack overflow for a query and copy/pastes the first result into your program. Having tried it on more interesting systems-level work it does little to nothing to augment productivity.