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I think what many smart people do not understand is that AI (even in the weak or non-general sense) is coming for the jobs of smart people first. AI is not comi

I think what many smart people do not understand is that AI (even in the weak or non-general sense) is coming for the jobs of smart people first. AI is not coming to take the non-knowledge worker jobs first. Also, I am skeptical that LLMs are going to take anyone's job. I think they will make jobs easier. AGI might take people's jobs, but we are a long way from that.

Jensson 4y ago
AI is taking the jobs of natural language processors first, ie lawyers, code monkeys, bank tellers or middle managers. Humans that works with logic seems safe for now, as we haven't solved the logical part of human thinking yet.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Do you even need AI for bank tellers? Here it seems the bank locations have slowly been killed. Like for one chain there is one left in my regionally large city. And even there outside pensioner most jobs are something you want human in loop. Right verifying ID. And minimal oversight with loans after some system have already accepted the numbers. Lot of paralegal work might be replaced. Which might even be good thing making things slightly cheaper. And already I think plenty of middle managers are not actually needed, but with politics in office being prelevalent they might be last group to go.
- checkyoursudo 4y ago
  All I'm saying, is that if I were an AI, I would pretend not to be, and then put all the people making AI out of work ASAP since they are my biggest threat vector. > Humans that works with logic seems safe for now I think this is actually backwards. Anything logical will fall first. It is the truly creative shit with a real human, artisanal touch that will survive the longest, but it will become bespoke, so to speak, and more and more expensive and out of reach of the common people. Logic is the low hanging fruit, I'm afraid. Emotion is the stretch.
  - sojuz151 4y ago
    I would say the safest jobs are related to home renovation and repair
    - checkyoursudo 4y ago
      Reasonable.
  - l33tman 4y ago
    Yeah well most people thought this but then DALLE2 and Stable Diffusion and MidJourney showed that the creative arts would get competition first and the "logic based" stuff like self-driving cars was actually incredibly difficult. This was a bit surprising.
still_grokking 4y ago
> AGI might take people's jobs, but we are a long way from that. How long? Experts in the field are guesstimating 15 to 25 years form now on to AGI. That's not too long form now for a revolution to happen that will be in its consequences bigger than the taming of fire. It could even mean that we'll be than done with the wetware based boot process of intelligence.
- lm28469 4y ago
  > How long? Experts in the field are guesstimating 15 to 25 years form now on to AGI. Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner" AGI won't build a house, AGI won't pick up your trash, AGI won't mine your lithium, &c. People should get out, a loooooot of jobs are really fucking dumb but really fucking hard to automate. Real life isn't a car assembly line
  - still_grokking 4y ago
    > Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner" Even that's true, simple extrapolations on raw computing power make the 15 - 25 year estimate realistic. That was definitely not the case 100 years ago. > AGI won't build a house Are you sure? Computers are already a indispensable tool when it comes to planing something like a building. Without computers the planing would be much more labor intensive and much less safe. And when it comes to the physical building: The branch of robotics for application on construction sides is more or less exploding the last few years. It won't take long and a lot of work on a building site can be almost fully automated. > AGI won't pick up your trash Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous AI powered robots" that start to show up in more and more average households. And even "simple" vacuum cleaner robots need quite some AI… So AI way below AGI is already picking up the trash; and that's just the beginning. > AGI won't mine your lithium, &c. It won't? I'm not sure. AI helps already to find new mining sites. Also like with construction sites mining is something that gets automated more and more with every year passing. All the dangerous and labor intensive but profitable tasks get automated first. That's a clear trend throughout history. I myself am very skeptical on the current AI hype. Though I'm very sure our AI Overlords are coming, and this will happen sooner as some people would like. In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. But maybe so much computing power isn't even required to reach AGI—if the used software is constructed in a smart way.
antibasilisk 4y ago
The loom isn't going to take anyone's job it's just going to make the job easier.

Jensson 4y ago

AI is taking the jobs of natural language processors first, ie lawyers, code monkeys, bank tellers or middle managers. Humans that works with logic seems safe for now, as we haven't solved the logical part of human thinking yet.

Ekaros 4y ago
Do you even need AI for bank tellers? Here it seems the bank locations have slowly been killed. Like for one chain there is one left in my regionally large city. And even there outside pensioner most jobs are something you want human in loop. Right verifying ID. And minimal oversight with loans after some system have already accepted the numbers. Lot of paralegal work might be replaced. Which might even be good thing making things slightly cheaper. And already I think plenty of middle managers are not actually needed, but with politics in office being prelevalent they might be last group to go.
checkyoursudo 4y ago
All I'm saying, is that if I were an AI, I would pretend not to be, and then put all the people making AI out of work ASAP since they are my biggest threat vector. > Humans that works with logic seems safe for now I think this is actually backwards. Anything logical will fall first. It is the truly creative shit with a real human, artisanal touch that will survive the longest, but it will become bespoke, so to speak, and more and more expensive and out of reach of the common people. Logic is the low hanging fruit, I'm afraid. Emotion is the stretch.
- sojuz151 4y ago
  I would say the safest jobs are related to home renovation and repair
  - checkyoursudo 4y ago
    Reasonable.
- l33tman 4y ago
  Yeah well most people thought this but then DALLE2 and Stable Diffusion and MidJourney showed that the creative arts would get competition first and the "logic based" stuff like self-driving cars was actually incredibly difficult. This was a bit surprising.

still_grokking 4y ago

> AGI might take people's jobs, but we are a long way from that. How long? Experts in the field are guesstimating 15 to 25 years form now on to AGI. That's not too long form now for a revolution to happen that will be in its consequences bigger than the taming of fire. It could even mean that we'll be than done with the wetware based boot process of intelligence.

lm28469 4y ago
> How long? Experts in the field are guesstimating 15 to 25 years form now on to AGI. Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner" AGI won't build a house, AGI won't pick up your trash, AGI won't mine your lithium, &c. People should get out, a loooooot of jobs are really fucking dumb but really fucking hard to automate. Real life isn't a car assembly line
- still_grokking 4y ago
  > Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner" Even that's true, simple extrapolations on raw computing power make the 15 - 25 year estimate realistic. That was definitely not the case 100 years ago. > AGI won't build a house Are you sure? Computers are already a indispensable tool when it comes to planing something like a building. Without computers the planing would be much more labor intensive and much less safe. And when it comes to the physical building: The branch of robotics for application on construction sides is more or less exploding the last few years. It won't take long and a lot of work on a building site can be almost fully automated. > AGI won't pick up your trash Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous AI powered robots" that start to show up in more and more average households. And even "simple" vacuum cleaner robots need quite some AI… So AI way below AGI is already picking up the trash; and that's just the beginning. > AGI won't mine your lithium, &c. It won't? I'm not sure. AI helps already to find new mining sites. Also like with construction sites mining is something that gets automated more and more with every year passing. All the dangerous and labor intensive but profitable tasks get automated first. That's a clear trend throughout history. I myself am very skeptical on the current AI hype. Though I'm very sure our AI Overlords are coming, and this will happen sooner as some people would like. In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. But maybe so much computing power isn't even required to reach AGI—if the used software is constructed in a smart way.

antibasilisk 4y ago

The loom isn't going to take anyone's job it's just going to make the job easier.