9 ms·

That's a weirdly-specific conclusion to make when even the article's own graph shows that general job postings stagnated at the same time programmer and broader

That's a weirdly-specific conclusion to make when even the article's own graph shows that general job postings stagnated at the same time programmer and broader IT postings stagnated. Tech jobs declined sooner, but it looks as if general job postings are starting to decline as well. It's becoming increasingly apparent that we're either on the verge of a recession or already in one. This is more than a particular job sector being a bubble; the whole economy is arguably a bubble.

paulpauper 4y ago
It seems like there is a recession every year if you look hard enough for it or depending on how you define it. Put "us economy recession 20*" into google for any year, and you will get results
- theknocker 4y ago
  [dead]
tenpies 4y ago
> the whole economy is arguably a bubble. No, you're not suppose to notice. I mean just last week there was another "tweak" to the CPI calculation[1], but we still came in absurdly hot at 6% YoY. It's about the 4th change in two quarters if I'm remembering correctly. --- [1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2023/methodology-changes-2023.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2023/methodology-changes-202...
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  Only one of the changes on that page is actually relevant, and it's 6 months old.
  - NhanH 4y ago
    The biggest change is on the homepage itself: > Starting with January 2023 data, BLS updated weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using 2 years of expenditure data.
    - marcosdumay 4y ago
      Well, a lot of small corrections seem better than a few large ones to me. Maybe it captures some noise, and it's worse, but I don't think one year of data is small enough to go past the optimum. It is healthy to have some amount of mistrust of official data, but those adjustments are very well defined, and there's no evidence that they deviated from the usual procedure on making them. It's not them happening that taints the data.
screwturner68 4y ago
We're in an employee shortage, recession or no recession, the largest segment of workers in the US ever (the boomers) are retiring and the largest cohort just turned 65 the last quarter of 2022. They've been squawking about the impending recession since 2015 and here we are, they keep saying it but it doesn't happen.
- dehrmann 4y ago
  While true, this doesn't really apply to tech.
  - screwturner68 4y ago
    not everyone in tech is under 30
    - Jensson 4y ago
      People don't retire at 30.
    - dehrmann 4y ago
      True, but tech has grown a lot in the past 30 years, so the worker age distribution skews younger. At older tech companies that are big, boring, and still do things (Intel, Cisco), it probable skews a little older.
- yellowapple 4y ago
  > They've been squawking about the impending recession since 2015 and here we are, they keep saying it but it doesn't happen. Mostly because the Fed has been creative about keeping the economic bubble going and preventing the numbers from "officially" indicating whether a recession has started. Those folks "on the ground" are more exposed to the reality of the situation: wealth inequality is expanding, wages haven't kept up with rents in decades, inflation and plain old profiteering are resulting in higher prices for worse quantities/qualities... for anyone other than those at the top of the economic ladder (who are largely insulated from the effects of their own economic policies), it's readily apparent that the current economic system is unsustainable, and it's entirely a matter of "when", not "if", the Fed and the broader financial system runs out of tricks to maintain our suspension of disbelief.
Tanoc 4y ago
General long term workforce participation by those not in specialized or career fields has been overall declining since the mid 2000s. 2012-2017 saw a spike in specialized field jobs thanks to online media, but career positions continued to decline in overall numbers while still being occupied [1]. In general labour the trend has been to reduce staff sizes, drive more hours per day per worker, and reduce overall weekly hours [2]. Which naturally results in fewer job positions. There is no recession coming up, because the truth is we never escaped the one that occurred in 2008 to begin with. We've just been covering it up. [1]https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/otm-employment-change-by-industry-confidence-intervals.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/otm-employme... Career positions in government and finance were stable in hiring and retention if slightly reduced month over month, while non-career positions such as retail reduced in number. [2]: https://www.epi.org/publication/irregular-work-scheduling-and-its-consequences/ https://www.epi.org/publication/irregular-work-scheduling-an...
heavyset_go 4y ago
> Tech jobs declined sooner, but it looks as if general job postings are starting to decline as well. Tech companies were some of the first employers that chose to fall on the Fed's "layoffs please" sword, so that might explain the trend.
- dehrmann 4y ago
  I'm not sure how to tease apart how much was interest rates going up and how much was things returning to normal causing missed growth projections.

paulpauper 4y ago

It seems like there is a recession every year if you look hard enough for it or depending on how you define it. Put "us economy recession 20*" into google for any year, and you will get results

theknocker 4y ago
[dead]

tenpies 4y ago

> the whole economy is arguably a bubble. No, you're not suppose to notice. I mean just last week there was another "tweak" to the CPI calculation[1], but we still came in absurdly hot at 6% YoY. It's about the 4th change in two quarters if I'm remembering correctly. --- [1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2023/methodology-changes-2023.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2023/methodology-changes-202...

marcosdumay 4y ago
Only one of the changes on that page is actually relevant, and it's 6 months old.
- NhanH 4y ago
  The biggest change is on the homepage itself: > Starting with January 2023 data, BLS updated weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using 2 years of expenditure data.
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    Well, a lot of small corrections seem better than a few large ones to me. Maybe it captures some noise, and it's worse, but I don't think one year of data is small enough to go past the optimum. It is healthy to have some amount of mistrust of official data, but those adjustments are very well defined, and there's no evidence that they deviated from the usual procedure on making them. It's not them happening that taints the data.

screwturner68 4y ago

We're in an employee shortage, recession or no recession, the largest segment of workers in the US ever (the boomers) are retiring and the largest cohort just turned 65 the last quarter of 2022. They've been squawking about the impending recession since 2015 and here we are, they keep saying it but it doesn't happen.

dehrmann 4y ago
While true, this doesn't really apply to tech.
- screwturner68 4y ago
  not everyone in tech is under 30
  - Jensson 4y ago
    People don't retire at 30.
  - dehrmann 4y ago
    True, but tech has grown a lot in the past 30 years, so the worker age distribution skews younger. At older tech companies that are big, boring, and still do things (Intel, Cisco), it probable skews a little older.
yellowapple 4y ago
> They've been squawking about the impending recession since 2015 and here we are, they keep saying it but it doesn't happen. Mostly because the Fed has been creative about keeping the economic bubble going and preventing the numbers from "officially" indicating whether a recession has started. Those folks "on the ground" are more exposed to the reality of the situation: wealth inequality is expanding, wages haven't kept up with rents in decades, inflation and plain old profiteering are resulting in higher prices for worse quantities/qualities... for anyone other than those at the top of the economic ladder (who are largely insulated from the effects of their own economic policies), it's readily apparent that the current economic system is unsustainable, and it's entirely a matter of "when", not "if", the Fed and the broader financial system runs out of tricks to maintain our suspension of disbelief.

Tanoc 4y ago

General long term workforce participation by those not in specialized or career fields has been overall declining since the mid 2000s. 2012-2017 saw a spike in specialized field jobs thanks to online media, but career positions continued to decline in overall numbers while still being occupied [1]. In general labour the trend has been to reduce staff sizes, drive more hours per day per worker, and reduce overall weekly hours [2]. Which naturally results in fewer job positions. There is no recession coming up, because the truth is we never escaped the one that occurred in 2008 to begin with. We've just been covering it up. [1]https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/otm-employment-change-by-industry-confidence-intervals.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/otm-employme... Career positions in government and finance were stable in hiring and retention if slightly reduced month over month, while non-career positions such as retail reduced in number. [2]: https://www.epi.org/publication/irregular-work-scheduling-and-its-consequences/ https://www.epi.org/publication/irregular-work-scheduling-an...

heavyset_go 4y ago

> Tech jobs declined sooner, but it looks as if general job postings are starting to decline as well. Tech companies were some of the first employers that chose to fall on the Fed's "layoffs please" sword, so that might explain the trend.

dehrmann 4y ago
I'm not sure how to tease apart how much was interest rates going up and how much was things returning to normal causing missed growth projections.