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It's never clear to me when to count elements in a SF book as predictions, or merely plot devices for the story. Does the author mean to say "this is what the w

It's never clear to me when to count elements in a SF book as predictions, or merely plot devices for the story. Does the author mean to say "this is what the world will be like by this date, and by the way, here's a story set in that world," or rather "imagine a world where with the following hypothetical changes... now, here's a story that could happen in that world." I think you probably try to have it both ways. Like, if you discussed a hundred new technologies in your future SF story, and 99 of them didn't pan, but one unlikely one was dead on, you could say "see? I predicted the fact that by 2041, fish can talk. Bit of a visionary, eh? All those other ones were just worldbuilding." Not saying this is Vinge at all, just that it's a weird business, and hard to tell from the outside where storytelling ends and prediction begins.

Aeolun 4y ago
Since you have the ability to set your story any time you want, if it’s set on earth, in a near future scenario, the year it’s set is at least a tacit prediction that that is the point in which you think certain advances are likely. Otherwise you’d just set it in 2050.
- twright0 4y ago
  This doesn't seem accurate - the scenario needs to be imaginable, but that doesn't mean it's a prediction by the author. I could write a story about the downstream effects of discovering FTL travel in 2030, but that doesn't mean I think it's going to happen. Even for something more realistic - something that will probably happen on some timeline, just not right away, like a Mars colony - the author might not want to explore or think about other technological or societal changes that happen in a longer period of time? Fiction is just that, fiction
  - Aeolun 4y ago
    I’m going to use VR worlds as a major plot point, and I vaguely intuit that will be likely around the year 2035, why would I set my story in 2100? That would require me to deliberately adjust my timeline to make “predictions” less likely.

Aeolun 4y ago

Since you have the ability to set your story any time you want, if it’s set on earth, in a near future scenario, the year it’s set is at least a tacit prediction that that is the point in which you think certain advances are likely. Otherwise you’d just set it in 2050.

twright0 4y ago
This doesn't seem accurate - the scenario needs to be imaginable, but that doesn't mean it's a prediction by the author. I could write a story about the downstream effects of discovering FTL travel in 2030, but that doesn't mean I think it's going to happen. Even for something more realistic - something that will probably happen on some timeline, just not right away, like a Mars colony - the author might not want to explore or think about other technological or societal changes that happen in a longer period of time? Fiction is just that, fiction
- Aeolun 4y ago
  I’m going to use VR worlds as a major plot point, and I vaguely intuit that will be likely around the year 2035, why would I set my story in 2100? That would require me to deliberately adjust my timeline to make “predictions” less likely.