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> uhh, we are moving into a very bad place I predicted few years ago According to Peter Zeihan, if Russia were to win in Ukraine, they would continue and Polan

by sampo 4y ago

> uhh, we are moving into a very bad place I predicted few years ago According to Peter Zeihan, if Russia were to win in Ukraine, they would continue and Poland might be next. But because modern Russia is so bad at war, a Nato-Russia confrontation would be like 1:1000 casualty ratio in conventional war. So nuclear weapons wold be Russian's only option. In conclusion, the safest option is to stop Russia in Ukraine, and not let them win, not let then proceed to next target. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A79uneUEfjM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A79uneUEfjM

mysecretaccount 4y ago
> According to Peter Zeihan, if Russia were to win in Ukraine, they would continue and Poland might be next. Zeihan's predictions have an abysmal track record. He tends to predict the most sensational outcome. I would not take his word on whether or not Russia would invade a NATO country. There are reasons to support Ukraine that are more grounded in reality.
- wing-_-nuts 4y ago
  Any other geopolitical youtubers you'd recommend?
selivanovp 4y ago
[flagged]
- mickotron 4y ago
  If Russia didn’t invade in 2014 this would all have been avoided, don’t you think?
  - ghostwriter 4y ago
    If the Ukrainian revolutionary government didn't get to work on the Sunday morning of 23rd Feb 2014 just to vote to abolish the law on language policies that had given the Russian, Romanian, and Hungarian languages the official status of regional languages in Eastern Ukraine, this might all have been avoided indeed. Crimea had only got annexed after 4 days of this stupid move against their own citizens of the "untrustworthy regions".
spurgu 4y ago
And according to me that's sensationalist bullshit - the Ukraine crisis is clearly a local one, one that has been brewing for a very very long time. And incidentally one that the US has been keen on nurturing due to its detrimental effects to Russia, but western propaganda portrays Russia as wanting this (for imperialistic reasons or whatever).
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  Russia doesn't want this? Which is why they invaded their sovereign neighbor and refuse to leave?
  - spurgu 4y ago
    Why would they want a costly conflict like this? If they didn't enter to begin with the Donbass would've gotten run over. And if they would leave now the same thing would happen. And nothing would've changed with their NATO dilemma (and you can shout "defensive alliance" all you want, Russia is not going to buy that).
    - cafard 4y ago
      The Donbass would have gotten run over how, when, and by whom?
      - spurgu 4y ago
        How: By force (as opposed to achieving a peaceful resolution through adhering to the Minsk agreements which admittedly was just a ploy on Ukraine's side to buy time to build up for an offensive) When: OSCE reports show increased activity in the area (the majority of it on the Donbass side of the neutral zone) during the two weeks leading up to the invasion. From that perspective it looks like it was in the process of happening when Russia stepped in. By whom: The Ukrainian regime (feels a bit weird to even have to answer this question).
- rocket_surgeron 4y ago
  >the Ukraine crisis is clearly a local one Genocide is very rarely a local crisis. "Russia isn't genoci..." Yes. Yes they are. They are committing genocide against the Ukrainian people by all legal and colloquial definitions of the word "genocide". Here are several hundred instances where Russian politicians and media figures called for genocide: https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rhetoric-against-ukraine-a-collection/ https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rh... If the United States invaded and tried to annex Canada through sham referenda held at the point of a gun after a years-long campaign to vilify them as commies, promised to destroy its national identity, and relocated its children south of the border for Americanization and reeducation, people's tones would be very different. > but western propaganda portrays Russia as wanting this In the above link there are several hundred official statements from Russian politicians confirming that they indeed do want this. With links to the statements.
wing-_-nuts 4y ago
Russia isn't taking on Nato, they just wanted to expand their sphere of influence, and they never thought that Ukraine would stand a fighting chance against them. Hell, we didn't either. It was only after Russia bungled the invasion that nato really started helping them. Russia attacking nato would be an absolute death sentence for them. Also for what it's worth, Zeihan tends to talk way beyond his core competencies. Any time you hear him talking about green energy or military matters, take it with a huge grain of salt
- orwin 4y ago
  Agree on the last part. It's the halo effect, because he talks so well, and is really knowledgeable about Asia (I mean, it's basically 1:1 with my experience of rural China, which is not an experience anybody lives/hear about). His opinions on other stuff is mostly informed. But it's informed bullshit mostly (does not mean it's wrong, it means that that's like asking ChatGPT about it).
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Russia kept saying for years how Ukraine is not a country and they'll help themselves - and the did. Twice now. Russia kept saying for years how the Baltics and Poland ought to be Russian. I think it's fair to say Russia is willing to do bonkers crazy things, and the only thing stopping it is sheer power.

by sampo 4y ago

mysecretaccount 4y ago

> According to Peter Zeihan, if Russia were to win in Ukraine, they would continue and Poland might be next. Zeihan's predictions have an abysmal track record. He tends to predict the most sensational outcome. I would not take his word on whether or not Russia would invade a NATO country. There are reasons to support Ukraine that are more grounded in reality.

wing-_-nuts 4y ago
Any other geopolitical youtubers you'd recommend?

selivanovp 4y ago

[flagged]

mickotron 4y ago
If Russia didn’t invade in 2014 this would all have been avoided, don’t you think?
- ghostwriter 4y ago
  If the Ukrainian revolutionary government didn't get to work on the Sunday morning of 23rd Feb 2014 just to vote to abolish the law on language policies that had given the Russian, Romanian, and Hungarian languages the official status of regional languages in Eastern Ukraine, this might all have been avoided indeed. Crimea had only got annexed after 4 days of this stupid move against their own citizens of the "untrustworthy regions".

spurgu 4y ago

And according to me that's sensationalist bullshit - the Ukraine crisis is clearly a local one, one that has been brewing for a very very long time. And incidentally one that the US has been keen on nurturing due to its detrimental effects to Russia, but western propaganda portrays Russia as wanting this (for imperialistic reasons or whatever).

mrguyorama 4y ago
Russia doesn't want this? Which is why they invaded their sovereign neighbor and refuse to leave?
- spurgu 4y ago
  Why would they want a costly conflict like this? If they didn't enter to begin with the Donbass would've gotten run over. And if they would leave now the same thing would happen. And nothing would've changed with their NATO dilemma (and you can shout "defensive alliance" all you want, Russia is not going to buy that).
  - cafard 4y ago
    The Donbass would have gotten run over how, when, and by whom?
    - spurgu 4y ago
      How: By force (as opposed to achieving a peaceful resolution through adhering to the Minsk agreements which admittedly was just a ploy on Ukraine's side to buy time to build up for an offensive) When: OSCE reports show increased activity in the area (the majority of it on the Donbass side of the neutral zone) during the two weeks leading up to the invasion. From that perspective it looks like it was in the process of happening when Russia stepped in. By whom: The Ukrainian regime (feels a bit weird to even have to answer this question).
rocket_surgeron 4y ago
>the Ukraine crisis is clearly a local one Genocide is very rarely a local crisis. "Russia isn't genoci..." Yes. Yes they are. They are committing genocide against the Ukrainian people by all legal and colloquial definitions of the word "genocide". Here are several hundred instances where Russian politicians and media figures called for genocide: https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rhetoric-against-ukraine-a-collection/ https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rh... If the United States invaded and tried to annex Canada through sham referenda held at the point of a gun after a years-long campaign to vilify them as commies, promised to destroy its national identity, and relocated its children south of the border for Americanization and reeducation, people's tones would be very different. > but western propaganda portrays Russia as wanting this In the above link there are several hundred official statements from Russian politicians confirming that they indeed do want this. With links to the statements.

wing-_-nuts 4y ago

Russia isn't taking on Nato, they just wanted to expand their sphere of influence, and they never thought that Ukraine would stand a fighting chance against them. Hell, we didn't either. It was only after Russia bungled the invasion that nato really started helping them. Russia attacking nato would be an absolute death sentence for them. Also for what it's worth, Zeihan tends to talk way beyond his core competencies. Any time you hear him talking about green energy or military matters, take it with a huge grain of salt

orwin 4y ago
Agree on the last part. It's the halo effect, because he talks so well, and is really knowledgeable about Asia (I mean, it's basically 1:1 with my experience of rural China, which is not an experience anybody lives/hear about). His opinions on other stuff is mostly informed. But it's informed bullshit mostly (does not mean it's wrong, it means that that's like asking ChatGPT about it).
rich_sasha 4y ago
Russia kept saying for years how Ukraine is not a country and they'll help themselves - and the did. Twice now. Russia kept saying for years how the Baltics and Poland ought to be Russian. I think it's fair to say Russia is willing to do bonkers crazy things, and the only thing stopping it is sheer power.