5 ms·

I honestly don't think it will be quite like that, at least not terribly soon. There is so much work being done to hook up LLMs to external sources of data, all

I honestly don't think it will be quite like that, at least not terribly soon. There is so much work being done to hook up LLMs to external sources of data, allow them to build longer term memories of interactions, etc. Each of these areas are going to have massive room to implement competing solutions, and even more room for optimization.

unsupp0rted 4y ago
Ray Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that all of this would happen roughly now-ish, with 2029 being when something passes a hard version of the Turing test. He was an uninformed crackpot with a poor understanding of statistics. And then less so. And then less so. Something passing the Turing test 6 months to 6 years from now? Lunacy. But give it 6 months and talk to GPT5 or 6 and then this might seem a lot more reasonable.
- falcor84 4y ago
  > He was an uninformed crackpot with a poor understanding of statistics. There's a lot you can say about Kurzweil being inaccurate in his predictions, but that is way too demeaning. Here's what Wikipedia has to say about him and the accolades he received: Kurzweil received the 1999 National Medal of Technology and Innovation, the United States' highest honor in technology, from then President Bill Clinton in a White House ceremony. He was the recipient of the $500,000 Lemelson-MIT Prize for 2001. He was elected a member of the National Academy of Engineering in 2001 for the application of technology to improve human-machine communication. In 2002 he was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame, established by the U.S. Patent Office. He has received 21 honorary doctorates, and honors from three U.S. presidents. The Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) included Kurzweil as one of 16 "revolutionaries who made America" along with other inventors of the past two centuries. Inc. magazine ranked him No. 8 among the "most fascinating" entrepreneurs in the United States and called him "Edison's rightful heir". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
  - unsupp0rted 4y ago
    I’ve been a Kurzweil supporter since high school, but to the wider world he was a crackpot (inventor who should stick to his lane) who had made a couple randomly lucky predictions. He wasn’t taken seriously, especially not when he painted a future of spiritual machines. Recently on the Lex Fridman podcast he himself said as much: his predictions seemed impossible and practically religious in the late 90s and up until fairly recently, but now experts in the field are lowering their projections every year for when the Turing test will be passed. Half of their projections are now coming in line with the guy they had dismissed for so long, and every year this gap narrows.

unsupp0rted 4y ago

Ray Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that all of this would happen roughly now-ish, with 2029 being when something passes a hard version of the Turing test. He was an uninformed crackpot with a poor understanding of statistics. And then less so. And then less so. Something passing the Turing test 6 months to 6 years from now? Lunacy. But give it 6 months and talk to GPT5 or 6 and then this might seem a lot more reasonable.

falcor84 4y ago
> He was an uninformed crackpot with a poor understanding of statistics. There's a lot you can say about Kurzweil being inaccurate in his predictions, but that is way too demeaning. Here's what Wikipedia has to say about him and the accolades he received: Kurzweil received the 1999 National Medal of Technology and Innovation, the United States' highest honor in technology, from then President Bill Clinton in a White House ceremony. He was the recipient of the $500,000 Lemelson-MIT Prize for 2001. He was elected a member of the National Academy of Engineering in 2001 for the application of technology to improve human-machine communication. In 2002 he was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame, established by the U.S. Patent Office. He has received 21 honorary doctorates, and honors from three U.S. presidents. The Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) included Kurzweil as one of 16 "revolutionaries who made America" along with other inventors of the past two centuries. Inc. magazine ranked him No. 8 among the "most fascinating" entrepreneurs in the United States and called him "Edison's rightful heir". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
- unsupp0rted 4y ago
  I’ve been a Kurzweil supporter since high school, but to the wider world he was a crackpot (inventor who should stick to his lane) who had made a couple randomly lucky predictions. He wasn’t taken seriously, especially not when he painted a future of spiritual machines. Recently on the Lex Fridman podcast he himself said as much: his predictions seemed impossible and practically religious in the late 90s and up until fairly recently, but now experts in the field are lowering their projections every year for when the Turing test will be passed. Half of their projections are now coming in line with the guy they had dismissed for so long, and every year this gap narrows.