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As Taleb said on Balaji Srinivasan's comment on Fed not communicating about the rate increases earlier. If crypto people feel that the losses are because of Fed
by distant_hat 4y ago
As Taleb said on Balaji Srinivasan's comment on Fed not communicating about the rate increases earlier. If crypto people feel that the losses are because of Fed's actions, then they should also agree that the profits are because of Fed'a actions.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoLoL - profits are because they're geniuses - losses are because other people are dumb. That's speculation 101.
- baq 4y agoThis isn't even speculation, it's hope-driven gambling.
- ChuckNorris89 4y agoThese lessons will be quickly forgotten at the next bull run, whenever that will be.
- wil421 4y agoI’ve tried to explain it the same way to my friend who is dabbling in Cyrpto. I think he even changed a 401k allocation to something Crypto-ish. He likes gambling too and I try to tell him it’s the same.
- psychlops 4y agoSounds like SVB.
- lazzlazzlazz 4y agoThis argument format - "if X is responsible for a decrease in Y, then not X is responsible for any increase in Y" - is plainly false and silly in any case it is applied, including this one.
- luckylion 4y agoIsn't it obvious? If the fire was responsible for burning down the house, then the fire must have also built it. Feels close to the theory behind homeopathy. If something can trigger some symptom in a healthy person, then the same something can revert it in a sick person. They just remove any trace of it from the medicine to increase the effect.
- GuuD 4y agoEnglish isn't my first language either, and I know how confusing it can be, so let me help here. Here is the quote from the post: "If crypto people feel that the losses are because of Fed's actions, then they should also agree that the profits are because of Fed's actions". As we know, Fed's actions have changed: from providing "cheap" or almost free money (rate was something like 0.08%) to much more expensive ~4.5% now. It wouldn't be a huge leap of reason to assume that at least some of the impressive growth of crypto was driven by insanely low interest rates. But that's just my opinion, feel free to keep comparing monetary policy to homeopathy.
- luckylion 4y agoI understand the point, and obviously interest rates influence pretty much everything and anything. Stocks, tech salaries, housing prices, infrastructure projects, unemployment etc, they are all affected by central banks. But that's not all, otherwise they'd perfectly align with interest rates, and stagflation would've been impossible, just as whatever it is that we have now. If you look closely, it's the idea that "if X caused Y, it must have also caused !Y" that I compared to homeopathy, not the idea that monetary policy exists.
- carnitine 4y ago
- lifty 4y agoI think a lot of people would agree with that statement. FED is responsible for a lot of profits, both in the equity market and definitely in the crypto asset market.
- youngtaff 4y agoTaleb and Srinivasan in the same thread… that’s one to avoid