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We don't have the clairvoyant ability to know that AGI will exist in any future near enough to worry about. It might or it might not - and even if it exists we

We don't have the clairvoyant ability to know that AGI will exist in any future near enough to worry about. It might or it might not - and even if it exists we could get its nature wrong and worry about the wrong things.

flangola7 4y ago
This isn't congruent with the AI research community consensus. There's debate over many points, but that we will develop AGI is seen as a forgone conclusion almost universally. The most pessimistic place it closer to 2100, others say 5 years, most say <25 years. But nobody is saying it won't happen at all, or even that it won't happen beyond the lifetimes of anyone currently living. At best we would be kicking the can down the road and making it out children's or grandchildren's problem. Notably the people closest to the fire, those advancing SOTA AI capabilities and those deepest into alignment/existential risk research, both say it is coming this decade. They predict very different outcomes (crudely summarized: utopia vs extinction), but they both predict the event horizon is on our doorstep. You're right that we might get it wrong, but getting things wrong with a new technology really always means negative outcomes. When you're figuring out rocket science and you realize you worried about the wrong things your rocket doesn't somehow still succeed and make it to space, it blows up in a fireball. It might not blow up because of the specific thing you were paying attention to, but it still blew up.
- nradov 4y ago
  So what. Research community "consensus" is meaningless when it comes to something that doesn't exist and which we don't even have a clear path to build. It's just a bunch of pontificating clowns engaging in idle speculation. Total waste of time, like trying to predict what space aliens will look like or whatever. It makes for fun sci-fi stories but it's not something that serious people actually care about.
  - flangola7 4y ago
    Saying lies and denigration does not make it true. Why should we believe you over the experts for whom this is their life's work? What are your credentials? Where is your experience? You seem to think they're unserious clowns so clearly you have a good reason.
- RandomLensman 4y ago
  Serious question: do you have a track record of the long-term forecasts of the research community? If they are quite good at this - fair enough.

flangola7 4y ago

This isn't congruent with the AI research community consensus. There's debate over many points, but that we will develop AGI is seen as a forgone conclusion almost universally. The most pessimistic place it closer to 2100, others say 5 years, most say <25 years. But nobody is saying it won't happen at all, or even that it won't happen beyond the lifetimes of anyone currently living. At best we would be kicking the can down the road and making it out children's or grandchildren's problem. Notably the people closest to the fire, those advancing SOTA AI capabilities and those deepest into alignment/existential risk research, both say it is coming this decade. They predict very different outcomes (crudely summarized: utopia vs extinction), but they both predict the event horizon is on our doorstep. You're right that we might get it wrong, but getting things wrong with a new technology really always means negative outcomes. When you're figuring out rocket science and you realize you worried about the wrong things your rocket doesn't somehow still succeed and make it to space, it blows up in a fireball. It might not blow up because of the specific thing you were paying attention to, but it still blew up.

nradov 4y ago
So what. Research community "consensus" is meaningless when it comes to something that doesn't exist and which we don't even have a clear path to build. It's just a bunch of pontificating clowns engaging in idle speculation. Total waste of time, like trying to predict what space aliens will look like or whatever. It makes for fun sci-fi stories but it's not something that serious people actually care about.
- flangola7 4y ago
  Saying lies and denigration does not make it true. Why should we believe you over the experts for whom this is their life's work? What are your credentials? Where is your experience? You seem to think they're unserious clowns so clearly you have a good reason.
RandomLensman 4y ago
Serious question: do you have a track record of the long-term forecasts of the research community? If they are quite good at this - fair enough.