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Maybe you're overestimating the USA the way Russia was overestimated. How many actual wars did the USA win? Out of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gu

Maybe you're overestimating the USA the way Russia was overestimated. How many actual wars did the USA win? Out of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf War only the latter was an actual victory.

no_wizard 4y ago
Actual wars? In WWII the US engaged successfully in a two front war as part of the allied coalition and more directly against Imperial Japan, and I don't think that should be understated. What we call in the US the Korean War was a good show of military might, and ended short of things getting out of hand. The Gulf War is another decisive showing of force. Nation building, however? God we do suck at that. Thats why I made the distinction. We tried nation building (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) and failed miserably, but we are not talking about nation building. We are talking about all out total war, and I've seen enough of the war machine up close to tell you, that if it was unrestrained, it would have laid waste to their targets in short order, and without much fuss. What Russia is doing, from the aspects of their aims, is also not total war, its trying to do nation building in the Ukraine. I hate all war, FWIW, enough experience with it to know better, but it would be a fools errand to take on the US military machine in present by any nation, really. Short of nukes, there just isn't any single nation that could really go to task with it, its massive, and thats why it scares me.
- lumost 4y ago
  US war fighting has depended on uncontested air supremacy for decades. It is not at all certain the us can rely on this over the Taiwan straight. China need only build 2-3000 5 million dollar missiles to deny air access to any adversary over Taiwan.
  - no_wizard 4y ago
    Possibly, but I think that wildly simplifies both US air power, and ability to counter such things, e.g. submarines can launch non nuclear missiles at targets without even being visible. Taiwan would be ripe for such tactics. I'm not an expert military strategist or anything, but Taiwan being an island gives the US many options to lean into
ctvo 4y ago
There's occupying a foreign territory and decisively winning conventional battles. The US has no issues with the latter, and Taiwan will be the latter, unless you think the US is going to invade China and hold a city or two for two decades. The Gulf War put the world on notice at how quickly Iraq, then the 5th (iirc) largest armed force, was dismantled in days by the US war machine.
_8j50 4y ago
The US has never lost a war. Withdrawing due to lack of political support is not defeat resulting from being overwhelmed by an enemy force. If you had your way, victory can only be acheived in afghanistan by committing genocide and killing every radical muslim in afghanistan that will support the taliban or occupying countries for centuries. Both iraq and afghanistan were won within months of the start of the conflict. Korea is technically still in a state of war with the north unable to advance past the 38th. Vietnam perhaps, because the US had heavy casualties but technically the US was supporting the south and ceased support due to domestic politics. Right now, by any serious account, even if all the armies of the world joined forced they cannot defeat the US on an all out conflict. Now the US might again star a war over Taiwan and come another election cycle it will just not be a popular thing and withdraw after enduring casualties in the 10s of thousands and losing trillions of dollars. That kind of a lame withdrawal I can see. But a conflict with China, unlike small boring countries will mean attack on mainland US!! Something that hasn't happened since pearl harbor. And is very unlikely to fizzle out of popularity in a few years. It will probably be the one thing that can unite the US and save american democracy ironically. You gotta understand, it isn't the 5-6x times bigger military budget, much much bigger navy,huge territory far away from China or allies, the insane sprawling military complex, the diet and health of military aged men (never mind the obesity, when americans bulk, it is at scale),supply chain,800 bases around the world (china has like 2), NATO support,etc... far beyond that the US has something every military starves for:experience!! Since WW2, every generation of americans has has a major war and the US is constantly engaged in subterfuge or random smaller skirmishes around the world. The PLA of China has never had a real war since it's inception, perhaps it can defend the mainland or even Taiwan but the US can keep coming back and hammer them out unless they can manage to get their 2 carriers to get a few hundred thousand chinese to mainland US, use nukes (and risk getting nuked back) or technologically overwhelm US bases and carriers by a large margin. Their economy is great but the stability of their government depends on it, halting most of their international trade will not help their stability. Now my speculation is that Xi will attempt to invade Taiwan and the US will retaliate and support Taiwan but both the US and China will avoid mainland or non-military targets and come up with a treaty that will save faces on both ends after like a year at most because they will both miss the money too much. But keep in mind also, chinese intelligence has a chokehold on key american figures and can be overwhelming to US counterintel. If you think the fee republicans supporting Russia now is a big deal, half of congress might support China in a war, if not openly, china might be able to manipulate them to push for a more ukraine-like passive support. The US is like godzilla and other countries are like japanese people in older movies when it attacks tokyo. You can defeat it, just not in an outright battle of strength.

no_wizard 4y ago

Actual wars? In WWII the US engaged successfully in a two front war as part of the allied coalition and more directly against Imperial Japan, and I don't think that should be understated. What we call in the US the Korean War was a good show of military might, and ended short of things getting out of hand. The Gulf War is another decisive showing of force. Nation building, however? God we do suck at that. Thats why I made the distinction. We tried nation building (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) and failed miserably, but we are not talking about nation building. We are talking about all out total war, and I've seen enough of the war machine up close to tell you, that if it was unrestrained, it would have laid waste to their targets in short order, and without much fuss. What Russia is doing, from the aspects of their aims, is also not total war, its trying to do nation building in the Ukraine. I hate all war, FWIW, enough experience with it to know better, but it would be a fools errand to take on the US military machine in present by any nation, really. Short of nukes, there just isn't any single nation that could really go to task with it, its massive, and thats why it scares me.

lumost 4y ago
US war fighting has depended on uncontested air supremacy for decades. It is not at all certain the us can rely on this over the Taiwan straight. China need only build 2-3000 5 million dollar missiles to deny air access to any adversary over Taiwan.
- no_wizard 4y ago
  Possibly, but I think that wildly simplifies both US air power, and ability to counter such things, e.g. submarines can launch non nuclear missiles at targets without even being visible. Taiwan would be ripe for such tactics. I'm not an expert military strategist or anything, but Taiwan being an island gives the US many options to lean into

ctvo 4y ago

There's occupying a foreign territory and decisively winning conventional battles. The US has no issues with the latter, and Taiwan will be the latter, unless you think the US is going to invade China and hold a city or two for two decades. The Gulf War put the world on notice at how quickly Iraq, then the 5th (iirc) largest armed force, was dismantled in days by the US war machine.

_8j50 4y ago

The US has never lost a war. Withdrawing due to lack of political support is not defeat resulting from being overwhelmed by an enemy force. If you had your way, victory can only be acheived in afghanistan by committing genocide and killing every radical muslim in afghanistan that will support the taliban or occupying countries for centuries. Both iraq and afghanistan were won within months of the start of the conflict. Korea is technically still in a state of war with the north unable to advance past the 38th. Vietnam perhaps, because the US had heavy casualties but technically the US was supporting the south and ceased support due to domestic politics. Right now, by any serious account, even if all the armies of the world joined forced they cannot defeat the US on an all out conflict. Now the US might again star a war over Taiwan and come another election cycle it will just not be a popular thing and withdraw after enduring casualties in the 10s of thousands and losing trillions of dollars. That kind of a lame withdrawal I can see. But a conflict with China, unlike small boring countries will mean attack on mainland US!! Something that hasn't happened since pearl harbor. And is very unlikely to fizzle out of popularity in a few years. It will probably be the one thing that can unite the US and save american democracy ironically. You gotta understand, it isn't the 5-6x times bigger military budget, much much bigger navy,huge territory far away from China or allies, the insane sprawling military complex, the diet and health of military aged men (never mind the obesity, when americans bulk, it is at scale),supply chain,800 bases around the world (china has like 2), NATO support,etc... far beyond that the US has something every military starves for:experience!! Since WW2, every generation of americans has has a major war and the US is constantly engaged in subterfuge or random smaller skirmishes around the world. The PLA of China has never had a real war since it's inception, perhaps it can defend the mainland or even Taiwan but the US can keep coming back and hammer them out unless they can manage to get their 2 carriers to get a few hundred thousand chinese to mainland US, use nukes (and risk getting nuked back) or technologically overwhelm US bases and carriers by a large margin. Their economy is great but the stability of their government depends on it, halting most of their international trade will not help their stability. Now my speculation is that Xi will attempt to invade Taiwan and the US will retaliate and support Taiwan but both the US and China will avoid mainland or non-military targets and come up with a treaty that will save faces on both ends after like a year at most because they will both miss the money too much. But keep in mind also, chinese intelligence has a chokehold on key american figures and can be overwhelming to US counterintel. If you think the fee republicans supporting Russia now is a big deal, half of congress might support China in a war, if not openly, china might be able to manipulate them to push for a more ukraine-like passive support. The US is like godzilla and other countries are like japanese people in older movies when it attacks tokyo. You can defeat it, just not in an outright battle of strength.