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It would be a proxy war, not direct US troop involvement. But China says any response from Taiwan will be taken as a direct response from the US. So, that coul

It would be a proxy war, not direct US troop involvement. But China says any response from Taiwan will be taken as a direct response from the US. So, that could go south in a hurry. I think Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning, so I doubt this would happen except as a way to goad the US into a war. And China certainly isn't ready for that yet. From the US POV, we are only posturing economically so China can't jump ahead of us technologically. I think we are growing concerned their AI vision systems might soon allow suicide drones that can target US politicians. But that's coming anyway. In general, we have finally decided it doesn't make a lot of sense to hand them technology that they then turn around and put into military hardware that will be used against us.

avgcorrection 4y ago
The whole world has not shunned Russia over the invasion.
- rasz 4y ago
  Slowly but surely https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions?srnd=premium-middle-east https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-to-... https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions/articleshow/98585120.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/...
- baal80spam 4y ago
  OK, whole/most of the _civilized_ world did.
  - rnk 4y ago
    China, India, Syria, NK, a few other countries. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gets-shrugs-in-india-outrage-over-ukraine-war-isnt-universal/ar-AA18h8OD https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gets-shrugs-in-i...
    - MikusR 4y ago
      As they said civilized countries have.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
> I think we are growing concerned their AI vision systems might soon allow suicide drones that can target US politicians. Utter nonsense. This is hardly a meaningful barrier to attempting assassinations of US polticians.
- oyashirochama 4y ago
  Assassinating a politician in the US typically just makes you more enemies compared to the rest of the world. At least if your an external factor, if internal that's different.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
sethrin 4y ago
US troops are already involved simply by being in the same theater. If you're planning a strike on Taiwan, you would be foolish to assume that the US carrier groups are just going to sit around while you do that. Therefore any plan for attacking Taiwan is necessarily a plan to eliminate that threat. From the US perspective, we are absolutely not posturing: we currently have lives on the line defending Taiwan, just like we had lives on the line defending Berlin. Hopefully these tensions will be resolved by other means, but if not...
magicalhippo 4y ago
> I think Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning EU shunned everything except the stuff they relied on: gas. That they kept buying in quantity. Given how much manufacturing the EU and US has outsourced to China, how effective would such shunning be?
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  Much of that manufacturing has started heading to Vietnam, Indonesia, even Mexico. China is the #1 manufacturer, but Germany is #2 and the US is #3, and the latter two will make reasonable attempts to respect your IP.
ianburrell 4y ago
It is impossible for Taiwan to be proxy war. China will be able to blockade the island and probably achieve air superiority. There is no way to supply Taiwan without getting shot at and involved. China is getting close to being ready for invasion. China has built a lot in the last decade, they built an entire modern navy. Amphibious invasions are difficult, and it is possible that they are impossible in modern world.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  That isn't true. The Ryukyus are right next door to Taiwan, and that is where much of America's strength in East Asia is. The reason the USA is not in Taiwan is simply that they don't need to be.
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    US doesn’t need to be in Taiwan to fight the war. Taiwan can handle the ground fighting if it comes to that. The US will fight in air and sea, and Okinawa and Guam will be main bases. Taiwan itself will be too dangerous although US bases might be targets. If they can get through, better to send weapons than US troops.
elforce002 4y ago
Interesting. If the forecasts regarding china's population don't lie, then the best time to attack Taiwan has to be before 2040.

avgcorrection 4y ago

The whole world has not shunned Russia over the invasion.

rasz 4y ago
Slowly but surely https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions?srnd=premium-middle-east https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-to-... https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions/articleshow/98585120.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/...
baal80spam 4y ago
OK, whole/most of the _civilized_ world did.
- rnk 4y ago
  China, India, Syria, NK, a few other countries. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gets-shrugs-in-india-outrage-over-ukraine-war-isnt-universal/ar-AA18h8OD https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gets-shrugs-in-i...
  - MikusR 4y ago
    As they said civilized countries have.

spywaregorilla 4y ago

> I think we are growing concerned their AI vision systems might soon allow suicide drones that can target US politicians. Utter nonsense. This is hardly a meaningful barrier to attempting assassinations of US polticians.

oyashirochama 4y ago
Assassinating a politician in the US typically just makes you more enemies compared to the rest of the world. At least if your an external factor, if internal that's different.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

sethrin 4y ago

US troops are already involved simply by being in the same theater. If you're planning a strike on Taiwan, you would be foolish to assume that the US carrier groups are just going to sit around while you do that. Therefore any plan for attacking Taiwan is necessarily a plan to eliminate that threat. From the US perspective, we are absolutely not posturing: we currently have lives on the line defending Taiwan, just like we had lives on the line defending Berlin. Hopefully these tensions will be resolved by other means, but if not...

magicalhippo 4y ago

> I think Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning EU shunned everything except the stuff they relied on: gas. That they kept buying in quantity. Given how much manufacturing the EU and US has outsourced to China, how effective would such shunning be?

red-iron-pine 4y ago
Much of that manufacturing has started heading to Vietnam, Indonesia, even Mexico. China is the #1 manufacturer, but Germany is #2 and the US is #3, and the latter two will make reasonable attempts to respect your IP.

ianburrell 4y ago

It is impossible for Taiwan to be proxy war. China will be able to blockade the island and probably achieve air superiority. There is no way to supply Taiwan without getting shot at and involved. China is getting close to being ready for invasion. China has built a lot in the last decade, they built an entire modern navy. Amphibious invasions are difficult, and it is possible that they are impossible in modern world.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
That isn't true. The Ryukyus are right next door to Taiwan, and that is where much of America's strength in East Asia is. The reason the USA is not in Taiwan is simply that they don't need to be.
- ianburrell 4y ago
  US doesn’t need to be in Taiwan to fight the war. Taiwan can handle the ground fighting if it comes to that. The US will fight in air and sea, and Okinawa and Guam will be main bases. Taiwan itself will be too dangerous although US bases might be targets. If they can get through, better to send weapons than US troops.

elforce002 4y ago

Interesting. If the forecasts regarding china's population don't lie, then the best time to attack Taiwan has to be before 2040.