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I think this is the make-or-break moment for consumer VR/AR. Valve's attempt flopped, Facebook's attempt is flopping, Sony's attempt is about to flop (see their

I think this is the make-or-break moment for consumer VR/AR. Valve's attempt flopped, Facebook's attempt is flopping, Sony's attempt is about to flop (see their recently cut projections for PSVR2). If even Apple can't do it, I think it's headed for the dustbin, at least for the next decade or three. I'm not ready to make a guess either way at whether they'll be successful. Apple does have a history of pulling these kinds of things off after others' failures, but a $3k price tag and the article saying execs are rushing the product to market over internal objections points to another story. We'll see.

karmakaze 4y ago
I don't think there is a make or break moment for VR/AR. If it's not now, it can be later. It could be the moment for Meta. There were many popular PDAs before the iPhone that wouldn't have gone away until it was displaced by something more successful. That said, Apple has never been a games company so I'll bet they miss the mark. Sony seems to be doing fine releasing new stuff whenever it's ready. PSVR2 and Gran Turismo with foveated rendering is reported to be the killer app for PSVR2, and I'm thinking about buying all of it to play.
the_third_wave 4y ago
I don't think so given that any Apple device will try to pull the user into the whole Apple world which has turned a sizeable portion of the potential market off from buying (nearly) anything Apple. The same is true for Facebook (by whatever name they think they can whitewash their reputation now), some - me among them - will not touch anything tied to their 'services' with a barge pole. Google's reputation as a data parasite also turns off a significant portion of the population, as does Microsoft's less than stellar reputation. In the end there will be several competing VR/AR systems which each target their own section of the market while more or less being off-limits to others. Those who have bought in to the Church of Apple will naturally flock to anything Apple since not doing so means they are cut off from a sizeable part of their co-religionists. Those who swallowed the Facebook Kool-Aid will blithely walk the path directed by The Company. Those who follow the "If you've got nothing to hide, you've got nothing to fear" mantra will have no problems opening up their lives and those of their peers to the Google-alphabet. Those who think that Microsoft really means it this time when they claim to have changed their ways will fall into the same trap as all the others who believed Microsoft all those previous times they made this claim did. Me? I'll just look from the side, on the lookout for hardware to hack so it does my bidding.
a4isms 4y ago
Humanity seems to overestimate the progress that can be made in years, while grossly underestimating—to the point of not even understanding—the progress that can be made in decades.
- gerad 4y ago
  It’s because technological progress happens on an s-curve. Things take longer than you expect in the short-term and less time than you’d expect in the long-term.
- megaman821 4y ago
  I don't think anyone is going to crack VR in the short term. Watching this tour of Facebook's Reality Labs, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6AOwDttBsc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6AOwDttBsc, it seems that they realize the challenges ahead. Looking at these challenges (resolution, brightness, eye tracking, form factor) is there an area where Apple is going to be a generation or more ahead? I think the world will be waiting another decade or so before VR gets anything like phone penetration in the market.
- massysett 4y ago
  But we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress. In aviation, there was Concorde and the 747. Back then who would have thought both those are in the dustbin and one of the most popular vehicles for longer-range flight is…the 737? We put men on the moon decades ago, still haven’t been back. In computing, we probably could have voice interfaces like the Star Trek computer, but mostly it seems folks don’t want to be bothered, though maybe the latest chat bot craze is a forerunner to chatty computers.
  - a4isms 4y ago
    > we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress I think this is especially true over longer time frames, because in our hubris, we extrapolate from what we know today, and cannot (by definition) extrapolate from things we haven't discovered yet. In addition, we tend to filter what we know by what is important and what is not important, and we are not good at understanding that sometimes, a breakthrough doesn't just introduce something new, it changes the importance of something else.
dylan604 4y ago
Would you expect any system with tethered cables to do anything more than flop as a wide release product? Sure, maybe a dev version might come tethered, but for general consumer product, tethering should be a non-starter
- eganist 4y ago
  Speculating: this is why I expect the heavy computing will probably be offloaded to an iPhone via a new wireless protocol, possibly one that's specifically certified for it (an "iPhone AR^?") with beefier specs and a better battery, possibly larger in size to compensate. Essentially allows the lenses to focus on only being a display at that point, which would let apple keep the footprint thin and partner with existing manufacturers e.g Luxottica, Marcolin, Safilo, etc. ^changed XR (extended reality) to AR per a reminder that the XR was an iPhone X variant not long ago
  - aaronbrethorst 4y ago
    iPhone XR was a consumer-priced version of the iPhone X: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_XR https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_XR
    - eganist 4y ago
      Thanks, totally forgot
    - dylan604 4y ago
      they clearly made a typo and meant the iPhone VR
      - eganist 4y ago
        to their credit, I actually did mean XR (extended reality), but alas. VR/AR are fine. MR sounds weird in context even though it's broader (mixed reality).
        4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
melling 4y ago
Three decades? What was the world like in 1993? That first Intel Pentium with 3.1 million transistors running at 66MHz was interesting but Windows 95 was still a couple of years away.
- piceas 4y ago
  A bit before the Virtual Boy in 95. It's taking a while.
wellthisisgreat 4y ago
I love Apple’s products but as a consumer I am not wearing a box on my head no matter how pretty the box is. Outside of gaming that Apple ecosystem sucks at there is nothing that ARVR can offer that is not improved by using a UX shortcut of a regular screen
dom96 4y ago
The only way any company can pull this off is if they create a truly wire-free, glasses form-factor device which is sufficiently high fidelity to display AR convincingly. It all relies on how much the technology can be miniaturised and pushed, if there is anyone that can do it it's Apple.
shiftpgdn 4y ago
I have the Meta/Rayban stories sunglasses and they're unquestionably my favorite sunglasses and it's unfortunate they haven't been as big of a hit as I expected. They are very natural, the camera and video feature work great, they're excellent for taking calls and listening to music. If they could achieve the AR feature set that I have in my Nreal Air's, but untethered it would be "The great leap forward" for AR/VR consumer glasses.
- dzhiurgis 4y ago
  So kinda niche like a watch (tho more people are wearing glasses than watches)
MikeTheRocker 4y ago
Meta Quest is definitely not flopping. It's now believed Quest headsets have outsold the Nintendo GameCube. Quest 2 outsold the latest Xbox. I really question the narrative that VR is this niche thing no one uses. The numbers support that it is going mainstream.
- antifa 4y ago
  How many people bought a GameCube, played for a week, then never touched it again? A better comparison would be first year game sales, 2nd year game sales, etc..
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  The quest has seen decent sales, but from what I hear, it's got limited sticking power with users. Most headsets end up in the drawer gathering dust after the novelty wears off. Meta needs to see buyers continue using to consider the quest a success.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- lucasgonze 4y ago
  Gross sales of Meta Quest are inflated. "Grossly" inflated. HAHAHahaha. The Question is not volume but ROI. Meta is pouring massive amounts of money into the project and has yet to establish organic demand. The headsets that have been sold are gathering dust. There is no product/market fit.
- macspoofing 4y ago
  >I really question the narrative that VR is this niche thing no one uses. For gaming or non-gaming? In my circle of acquaintances, I know 2 people that use it for gaming (one individual is an avid "Elite Dangerous" player, which is a perfect use-case for VR). I don't know anyone that uses VR (or AR) for non-gaming purposes. This is what Facebook/Meta was trying to push. The problem for VR, specifically, is that there is a sizable population of people that experience nausea when using it even for relatively small amounts of time. I'm in that group. So even if I wanted to, I would not use, for example, VR productivity or collaboration apps, just because of the nausea. It's still a niche product.
theschwa 4y ago
Meta and Apple are both working on creating an environment in which they can succeed in AR. The hardware for AR is a good ways off, but I think the current market is more about building the momentum of software, hardware, and ecosystem that Meta and Apple need to succeed with AR. They are both willing to take losses to get there. In that regard, I don't think this is a make or break moment, but I do think that Apple is hoping to put out a product that gives people a better glimpse of their vision for mixed reality and AR.
jjcm 4y ago
I wouldn’t say a company that has said “this isn’t it, this is an enthusiast device that’s a stepping stone to a consumer ready product” has made a flop. The index was exactly what it was supposed to be, a step in the right direction. Also, VR growth is increasing steadily over time: https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-fix-steam-survey-vr-population/amp/ https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-fix-steam-survey-vr-populatio... I don’t agree with the premise of your comment.
tootie 4y ago
I'm extremely bearish on AR. It's failed to find a footing in any niche. I thought phone-based AR had a better chance of taking hold than headsets, but we haven't really seen much of anything since Pokemon Go. AR Core and ARKit have not attracted many developers since being released nearly 5 years ago. I'll throw one counterpoint in which is the new Mario Kart ride at Universal Studios. It's dark ride featuring a spinning cart, big sets and projections and interactive gaming via an AR visor. It's absolutely incredible. They skirt a lot of issues by keeping the lights off so the overlayed image stays sharp and also the visor is tethered to the car, so most of the horsepower is not melting your head.

karmakaze 4y ago

I don't think there is a make or break moment for VR/AR. If it's not now, it can be later. It could be the moment for Meta. There were many popular PDAs before the iPhone that wouldn't have gone away until it was displaced by something more successful. That said, Apple has never been a games company so I'll bet they miss the mark. Sony seems to be doing fine releasing new stuff whenever it's ready. PSVR2 and Gran Turismo with foveated rendering is reported to be the killer app for PSVR2, and I'm thinking about buying all of it to play.

the_third_wave 4y ago

I don't think so given that any Apple device will try to pull the user into the whole Apple world which has turned a sizeable portion of the potential market off from buying (nearly) anything Apple. The same is true for Facebook (by whatever name they think they can whitewash their reputation now), some - me among them - will not touch anything tied to their 'services' with a barge pole. Google's reputation as a data parasite also turns off a significant portion of the population, as does Microsoft's less than stellar reputation. In the end there will be several competing VR/AR systems which each target their own section of the market while more or less being off-limits to others. Those who have bought in to the Church of Apple will naturally flock to anything Apple since not doing so means they are cut off from a sizeable part of their co-religionists. Those who swallowed the Facebook Kool-Aid will blithely walk the path directed by The Company. Those who follow the "If you've got nothing to hide, you've got nothing to fear" mantra will have no problems opening up their lives and those of their peers to the Google-alphabet. Those who think that Microsoft really means it this time when they claim to have changed their ways will fall into the same trap as all the others who believed Microsoft all those previous times they made this claim did. Me? I'll just look from the side, on the lookout for hardware to hack so it does my bidding.

a4isms 4y ago

Humanity seems to overestimate the progress that can be made in years, while grossly underestimating—to the point of not even understanding—the progress that can be made in decades.

gerad 4y ago
It’s because technological progress happens on an s-curve. Things take longer than you expect in the short-term and less time than you’d expect in the long-term.
megaman821 4y ago
I don't think anyone is going to crack VR in the short term. Watching this tour of Facebook's Reality Labs, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6AOwDttBsc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6AOwDttBsc, it seems that they realize the challenges ahead. Looking at these challenges (resolution, brightness, eye tracking, form factor) is there an area where Apple is going to be a generation or more ahead? I think the world will be waiting another decade or so before VR gets anything like phone penetration in the market.
massysett 4y ago
But we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress. In aviation, there was Concorde and the 747. Back then who would have thought both those are in the dustbin and one of the most popular vehicles for longer-range flight is…the 737? We put men on the moon decades ago, still haven’t been back. In computing, we probably could have voice interfaces like the Star Trek computer, but mostly it seems folks don’t want to be bothered, though maybe the latest chat bot craze is a forerunner to chatty computers.
- a4isms 4y ago
  > we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress I think this is especially true over longer time frames, because in our hubris, we extrapolate from what we know today, and cannot (by definition) extrapolate from things we haven't discovered yet. In addition, we tend to filter what we know by what is important and what is not important, and we are not good at understanding that sometimes, a breakthrough doesn't just introduce something new, it changes the importance of something else.

dylan604 4y ago

Would you expect any system with tethered cables to do anything more than flop as a wide release product? Sure, maybe a dev version might come tethered, but for general consumer product, tethering should be a non-starter

eganist 4y ago
Speculating: this is why I expect the heavy computing will probably be offloaded to an iPhone via a new wireless protocol, possibly one that's specifically certified for it (an "iPhone AR^?") with beefier specs and a better battery, possibly larger in size to compensate. Essentially allows the lenses to focus on only being a display at that point, which would let apple keep the footprint thin and partner with existing manufacturers e.g Luxottica, Marcolin, Safilo, etc. ^changed XR (extended reality) to AR per a reminder that the XR was an iPhone X variant not long ago
- aaronbrethorst 4y ago
  iPhone XR was a consumer-priced version of the iPhone X: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_XR https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_XR
  - eganist 4y ago
    Thanks, totally forgot
  - dylan604 4y ago
    they clearly made a typo and meant the iPhone VR
    - eganist 4y ago
      to their credit, I actually did mean XR (extended reality), but alas. VR/AR are fine. MR sounds weird in context even though it's broader (mixed reality).
      - 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

melling 4y ago

Three decades? What was the world like in 1993? That first Intel Pentium with 3.1 million transistors running at 66MHz was interesting but Windows 95 was still a couple of years away.

piceas 4y ago
A bit before the Virtual Boy in 95. It's taking a while.

wellthisisgreat 4y ago

I love Apple’s products but as a consumer I am not wearing a box on my head no matter how pretty the box is. Outside of gaming that Apple ecosystem sucks at there is nothing that ARVR can offer that is not improved by using a UX shortcut of a regular screen

dom96 4y ago

The only way any company can pull this off is if they create a truly wire-free, glasses form-factor device which is sufficiently high fidelity to display AR convincingly. It all relies on how much the technology can be miniaturised and pushed, if there is anyone that can do it it's Apple.

shiftpgdn 4y ago

I have the Meta/Rayban stories sunglasses and they're unquestionably my favorite sunglasses and it's unfortunate they haven't been as big of a hit as I expected. They are very natural, the camera and video feature work great, they're excellent for taking calls and listening to music. If they could achieve the AR feature set that I have in my Nreal Air's, but untethered it would be "The great leap forward" for AR/VR consumer glasses.

dzhiurgis 4y ago
So kinda niche like a watch (tho more people are wearing glasses than watches)

MikeTheRocker 4y ago

Meta Quest is definitely not flopping. It's now believed Quest headsets have outsold the Nintendo GameCube. Quest 2 outsold the latest Xbox. I really question the narrative that VR is this niche thing no one uses. The numbers support that it is going mainstream.

antifa 4y ago
How many people bought a GameCube, played for a week, then never touched it again? A better comparison would be first year game sales, 2nd year game sales, etc..
HDThoreaun 4y ago
The quest has seen decent sales, but from what I hear, it's got limited sticking power with users. Most headsets end up in the drawer gathering dust after the novelty wears off. Meta needs to see buyers continue using to consider the quest a success.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
lucasgonze 4y ago
Gross sales of Meta Quest are inflated. "Grossly" inflated. HAHAHahaha. The Question is not volume but ROI. Meta is pouring massive amounts of money into the project and has yet to establish organic demand. The headsets that have been sold are gathering dust. There is no product/market fit.
macspoofing 4y ago
>I really question the narrative that VR is this niche thing no one uses. For gaming or non-gaming? In my circle of acquaintances, I know 2 people that use it for gaming (one individual is an avid "Elite Dangerous" player, which is a perfect use-case for VR). I don't know anyone that uses VR (or AR) for non-gaming purposes. This is what Facebook/Meta was trying to push. The problem for VR, specifically, is that there is a sizable population of people that experience nausea when using it even for relatively small amounts of time. I'm in that group. So even if I wanted to, I would not use, for example, VR productivity or collaboration apps, just because of the nausea. It's still a niche product.

theschwa 4y ago

Meta and Apple are both working on creating an environment in which they can succeed in AR. The hardware for AR is a good ways off, but I think the current market is more about building the momentum of software, hardware, and ecosystem that Meta and Apple need to succeed with AR. They are both willing to take losses to get there. In that regard, I don't think this is a make or break moment, but I do think that Apple is hoping to put out a product that gives people a better glimpse of their vision for mixed reality and AR.

jjcm 4y ago

I wouldn’t say a company that has said “this isn’t it, this is an enthusiast device that’s a stepping stone to a consumer ready product” has made a flop. The index was exactly what it was supposed to be, a step in the right direction. Also, VR growth is increasing steadily over time: https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-fix-steam-survey-vr-population/amp/ https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-fix-steam-survey-vr-populatio... I don’t agree with the premise of your comment.

tootie 4y ago

I'm extremely bearish on AR. It's failed to find a footing in any niche. I thought phone-based AR had a better chance of taking hold than headsets, but we haven't really seen much of anything since Pokemon Go. AR Core and ARKit have not attracted many developers since being released nearly 5 years ago. I'll throw one counterpoint in which is the new Mario Kart ride at Universal Studios. It's dark ride featuring a spinning cart, big sets and projections and interactive gaming via an AR visor. It's absolutely incredible. They skirt a lot of issues by keeping the lights off so the overlayed image stays sharp and also the visor is tethered to the car, so most of the horsepower is not melting your head.