4 ms·

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” sce

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

CharlesW 4y ago
Thank you. This seemed like it was written by a student who was saying the same thing over and over in order to satisfy a 4,500-word target, and I was wondering what I was missing.
- antegamisou 4y ago
  Unfortunately I feel like submissions on the site, as well as general content online, of the same type for significantly less academic subjects (this new cool web framework I'll spend 6000 words writing about) are the norm now. And before anyone says so, no it has nothing to do with the supposed lessened attention span smartphones have caused. I'm not wasting 15 minutes of my life reading about social media recommendation algorithms [1] when not even a single paragraph is dedicated to at least some rudimentary technical explanation behind them. Same goes for 30-minute YouTube videos attempting to maximize monetization for subjects whose explanation in less than 10 minutes for an average intelligence person is adequate. Here's also a recent example of ideal, imo, technical writing that is sadly getting more scarce: https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=6712 https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=6712 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087973
  - lumb63 4y ago
    Ever since I saw a comment on HN about low information density on the internet, I haven’t been able to unsee it. They were commenting on a YouTube video that had an 8-second bit of content but was nearly 2 minutes long. But it’s so much worse than that. Recipes tell you how their great grandmother moved to the Americas and made the first apple pie ever. And then detail the entire history of apples and how to make the entire recipe. And then, 70% of the way down the page, right before the comment section, is what you wanted at first glance: what’s in this pie, and how long will it take me to make? It’s everywhere.
    - inkblotuniverse 4y ago
      Check out based.cooking - just recipes, no fluff.
      - 4dayworkweek4u 4y ago
        "It's bloat" ;)
  - drewcoo 4y ago
    Makes ChatGPT seem more viable.
  - croniev 4y ago
    I agree that there is a lot of blabla and that is not beneficial to anyone. But sometimes things that may seem as blabla actually may not be. You say that you care about technical information and every paragraph should contain some. But there is more than just tech, and it is important to motivate why we should care about the tech topic we are reading about. This will require paragraphs here and there that deal with ethical, social, philosophical considerations, and they may seem like space-fillers, however the contents are not trivial. Maybe you know that recommendation algorithms can have negative impacts, still it cant hurt to see arguments for this position. And other people besides you may not think so, and thus it is important to present them with such positions so that there can be a discussion. Whatever "average intelligence" is supposed to mean, not everyone knows the same things I do, no matter how "smart" they are.
- omginternets 4y ago
  It’s interesting to understand how these RCPs came into existence, in addition to their flaws.
cebert 4y ago
> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this has led to an overreliance on untested and unrealistic assumptions, which in turn undermines the credibility of climate change projections and makes it more difficult to develop effective policies. The authors note that climate change projections are typically based on a set of assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, which are then used to generate a range of potential climate outcomes. However, these assumptions often fail to account for a range of important factors, such as economic growth, technological innovation, and changes in land use patterns, which can have a significant impact on emissions and climate outcomes. Pielke and Ritchie argue that policymakers and scientists need to take a more pragmatic and evidence-based approach to climate change projections, one that is grounded in real-world data and incorporates a wider range of factors. They suggest that this could involve developing more diverse and flexible scenarios that are better able to capture the complexity and uncertainty of the real world. Overall, the authors stress the importance of ensuring that climate change policies are based on realistic and evidence-based projections, rather than relying on overly simplistic or unrealistic assumptions. They argue that this will require a fundamental rethinking of the way that climate change scenarios are developed and used, and a greater emphasis on collaboration and dialogue between policymakers, scientists, and other stakeholders.
- protastus 4y ago
  The article is so generic and abstract that even the summary is verbose.
- krainboltgreene 4y ago
  Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.
  - AstixAndBelix 4y ago
heisenbit 4y ago
Considering the extraordinary disruptions through Covid and Russia I would argue it is too early to make changes to fundamental trend predictions.
jasonhansel 4y ago
I get the sense that they are trying very carefully not to sound like climate change denialists, so that they won't get conflated with people much further from the scientific consensus. If they just said "the IPCC models are BS," they would likely be dismissed out of hand, at least in the scientific community.
- wizofaus 4y ago
  Pielke Jr is a climate-action "denialist" from a long way back, no? (claims to accept the science but then concludes there's nothing we can do about it for the foreseeable future other than adapt. This article seems to be saying "well ok some of the changes we've made are making a difference to emissions, but now there's no real need to make any more...").
  - omginternets 4y ago
    You’ve substituted “climate change denialist” for “climate action denialist”. Why?
    - wizofaus 4y ago
      Only because I don't believe he's ever denied climate change was happening or that if it is it's not our fault, which are the usual first two phases of denialism.
      - omginternets 4y ago
        I don’t follow. You’re responding to a point about the author not being a climate change denialist by saying that he doesn’t think action against climate change is justified. What point are you actually trying to make? It seems like you’re trying to equate one with the other, especially given your novel use of the word “denialism”. I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but I’m still unclear on what exactly you are implying.
        4y ago
randomluck040 4y ago
Edited: the RCP8.5 seems to be the most fitting regarding historical data. There are also other RCPs for other scenarios as well.

CharlesW 4y ago

Thank you. This seemed like it was written by a student who was saying the same thing over and over in order to satisfy a 4,500-word target, and I was wondering what I was missing.

antegamisou 4y ago
Unfortunately I feel like submissions on the site, as well as general content online, of the same type for significantly less academic subjects (this new cool web framework I'll spend 6000 words writing about) are the norm now. And before anyone says so, no it has nothing to do with the supposed lessened attention span smartphones have caused. I'm not wasting 15 minutes of my life reading about social media recommendation algorithms [1] when not even a single paragraph is dedicated to at least some rudimentary technical explanation behind them. Same goes for 30-minute YouTube videos attempting to maximize monetization for subjects whose explanation in less than 10 minutes for an average intelligence person is adequate. Here's also a recent example of ideal, imo, technical writing that is sadly getting more scarce: https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=6712 https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=6712 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087973
- lumb63 4y ago
  Ever since I saw a comment on HN about low information density on the internet, I haven’t been able to unsee it. They were commenting on a YouTube video that had an 8-second bit of content but was nearly 2 minutes long. But it’s so much worse than that. Recipes tell you how their great grandmother moved to the Americas and made the first apple pie ever. And then detail the entire history of apples and how to make the entire recipe. And then, 70% of the way down the page, right before the comment section, is what you wanted at first glance: what’s in this pie, and how long will it take me to make? It’s everywhere.
  - inkblotuniverse 4y ago
    Check out based.cooking - just recipes, no fluff.
    - 4dayworkweek4u 4y ago
      "It's bloat" ;)
- drewcoo 4y ago
  Makes ChatGPT seem more viable.
- croniev 4y ago
  I agree that there is a lot of blabla and that is not beneficial to anyone. But sometimes things that may seem as blabla actually may not be. You say that you care about technical information and every paragraph should contain some. But there is more than just tech, and it is important to motivate why we should care about the tech topic we are reading about. This will require paragraphs here and there that deal with ethical, social, philosophical considerations, and they may seem like space-fillers, however the contents are not trivial. Maybe you know that recommendation algorithms can have negative impacts, still it cant hurt to see arguments for this position. And other people besides you may not think so, and thus it is important to present them with such positions so that there can be a discussion. Whatever "average intelligence" is supposed to mean, not everyone knows the same things I do, no matter how "smart" they are.
omginternets 4y ago
It’s interesting to understand how these RCPs came into existence, in addition to their flaws.

cebert 4y ago

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this has led to an overreliance on untested and unrealistic assumptions, which in turn undermines the credibility of climate change projections and makes it more difficult to develop effective policies. The authors note that climate change projections are typically based on a set of assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, which are then used to generate a range of potential climate outcomes. However, these assumptions often fail to account for a range of important factors, such as economic growth, technological innovation, and changes in land use patterns, which can have a significant impact on emissions and climate outcomes. Pielke and Ritchie argue that policymakers and scientists need to take a more pragmatic and evidence-based approach to climate change projections, one that is grounded in real-world data and incorporates a wider range of factors. They suggest that this could involve developing more diverse and flexible scenarios that are better able to capture the complexity and uncertainty of the real world. Overall, the authors stress the importance of ensuring that climate change policies are based on realistic and evidence-based projections, rather than relying on overly simplistic or unrealistic assumptions. They argue that this will require a fundamental rethinking of the way that climate change scenarios are developed and used, and a greater emphasis on collaboration and dialogue between policymakers, scientists, and other stakeholders.

protastus 4y ago
The article is so generic and abstract that even the summary is verbose.
krainboltgreene 4y ago
Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.
- AstixAndBelix 4y ago

heisenbit 4y ago

Considering the extraordinary disruptions through Covid and Russia I would argue it is too early to make changes to fundamental trend predictions.

jasonhansel 4y ago

I get the sense that they are trying very carefully not to sound like climate change denialists, so that they won't get conflated with people much further from the scientific consensus. If they just said "the IPCC models are BS," they would likely be dismissed out of hand, at least in the scientific community.

wizofaus 4y ago
Pielke Jr is a climate-action "denialist" from a long way back, no? (claims to accept the science but then concludes there's nothing we can do about it for the foreseeable future other than adapt. This article seems to be saying "well ok some of the changes we've made are making a difference to emissions, but now there's no real need to make any more...").
- omginternets 4y ago
  You’ve substituted “climate change denialist” for “climate action denialist”. Why?
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    Only because I don't believe he's ever denied climate change was happening or that if it is it's not our fault, which are the usual first two phases of denialism.
    - omginternets 4y ago
      I don’t follow. You’re responding to a point about the author not being a climate change denialist by saying that he doesn’t think action against climate change is justified. What point are you actually trying to make? It seems like you’re trying to equate one with the other, especially given your novel use of the word “denialism”. I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but I’m still unclear on what exactly you are implying.
      - 4y ago

randomluck040 4y ago

Edited: the RCP8.5 seems to be the most fitting regarding historical data. There are also other RCPs for other scenarios as well.