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The solar industry did explode with jobs ten years ago, and has kept growing since. The thing that didn’t work out were some high profile panel manufacturing p

The solar industry did explode with jobs ten years ago, and has kept growing since. The thing that didn’t work out were some high profile panel manufacturing plays, but the solar industry as a whole has grown and employs more people than the oil and gas industry. In fact, the “China price” is responsible for a lot of that growth, because it’s made the economics of solar irresistible in many places. More info on jobs and industry size: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data

908B64B197 4y ago
I can only hope with investments for fabs here in the US we can bring back production of solar panels. Would be great to stop importing cheap, inefficient panels from abroad and instead have out tax dollar subsidize a higher quality domestic product.
- crote 4y ago
  Don't count on it. The fabs currently being invested in are designed for high-tech chips, they are completely unsuitable for solar panels. Solar panel factories are a completely different beast, and labor cost is probably the biggest factor when it comes to choosing a factory location. Cheap and inefficient panels are usually exactly what you want. You are rarely space or weight limited, so it is all about getting the highest power capacity for your money. Why spend twice as much for 10% more capacity when you can get 100% more capacity for the same money by simply placing more panels?
  - ericd 4y ago
    >Why spend twice as much for 10% more capacity when you can get 100% more capacity for the same money by simply placing more panels? Because panels are a small portion of the overall installed capacity price. Installation labor, inverters, racking, wiring, mounts, and other parts account for most of it.
    - philipkglass 4y ago
      It depends on which kind of solar installation you're talking about. In utility scale projects, modules are still the single largest expense though they're now less than 40% of the total. In residential projects they're also the single largest expense but less than 20% of the total. See pages 22 and 30 of this 2022 NREL solar cost report: "U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2022" https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/83586.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/83586.pdf The residential market has traditionally been where higher-cost, higher-efficiency panels do best. But efficiency has risen so much across the board in recent years that it appears difficult to run a solar manufacturing business targeting the rooftop market alone. The bigger manufacturers that service all markets have panels that can match or nearly match the efficiency of specialty manufacturers and they have better economies of scale.
  - bruce511 4y ago
    >> You are rarely space or weight limited Yes and no. In a commercial context, with installation at ground level, space isn't an issue. On commercial buildings, again roof space is often plentiful, and not an issue. But for residential, with pitched roofs, often pitched it the wrong direction, space is a major factor. Alas residentials are also the most price-sensitive. And this is before we discuss the assumption that US panels would be "better". In truth they are likely to be less effecient, not more effecient. Chinese factories spen a lot on updating equipment and processes. By contrast most US industries don't spend a lot upgrading factories - especially in the short term.
beebmam 4y ago
The "China price" is more than just the cheap cost of the product. It is also the carbon cost of the coal that is used to produce solar panels, and the human forced labor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/05/19/china-made-solar-cheap-through-coal-subsidies--forced-labor-not-efficiency/?sh=43117da071ec https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/05/19... Cheating on both carbon emissions and slave labor practices is a giant way that China was able to bring down costs compared to competitors in the US and EU.

908B64B197 4y ago

I can only hope with investments for fabs here in the US we can bring back production of solar panels. Would be great to stop importing cheap, inefficient panels from abroad and instead have out tax dollar subsidize a higher quality domestic product.

crote 4y ago
Don't count on it. The fabs currently being invested in are designed for high-tech chips, they are completely unsuitable for solar panels. Solar panel factories are a completely different beast, and labor cost is probably the biggest factor when it comes to choosing a factory location. Cheap and inefficient panels are usually exactly what you want. You are rarely space or weight limited, so it is all about getting the highest power capacity for your money. Why spend twice as much for 10% more capacity when you can get 100% more capacity for the same money by simply placing more panels?
- ericd 4y ago
  >Why spend twice as much for 10% more capacity when you can get 100% more capacity for the same money by simply placing more panels? Because panels are a small portion of the overall installed capacity price. Installation labor, inverters, racking, wiring, mounts, and other parts account for most of it.
  - philipkglass 4y ago
    It depends on which kind of solar installation you're talking about. In utility scale projects, modules are still the single largest expense though they're now less than 40% of the total. In residential projects they're also the single largest expense but less than 20% of the total. See pages 22 and 30 of this 2022 NREL solar cost report: "U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2022" https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/83586.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/83586.pdf The residential market has traditionally been where higher-cost, higher-efficiency panels do best. But efficiency has risen so much across the board in recent years that it appears difficult to run a solar manufacturing business targeting the rooftop market alone. The bigger manufacturers that service all markets have panels that can match or nearly match the efficiency of specialty manufacturers and they have better economies of scale.
- bruce511 4y ago
  >> You are rarely space or weight limited Yes and no. In a commercial context, with installation at ground level, space isn't an issue. On commercial buildings, again roof space is often plentiful, and not an issue. But for residential, with pitched roofs, often pitched it the wrong direction, space is a major factor. Alas residentials are also the most price-sensitive. And this is before we discuss the assumption that US panels would be "better". In truth they are likely to be less effecient, not more effecient. Chinese factories spen a lot on updating equipment and processes. By contrast most US industries don't spend a lot upgrading factories - especially in the short term.

beebmam 4y ago

The "China price" is more than just the cheap cost of the product. It is also the carbon cost of the coal that is used to produce solar panels, and the human forced labor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/05/19/china-made-solar-cheap-through-coal-subsidies--forced-labor-not-efficiency/?sh=43117da071ec https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/05/19... Cheating on both carbon emissions and slave labor practices is a giant way that China was able to bring down costs compared to competitors in the US and EU.