4 ms·

How exactly does the same amount of labor need doing when there will fewer people who need anything in the near future? You seem to be saying more labor per per

How exactly does the same amount of labor need doing when there will fewer people who need anything in the near future? You seem to be saying more labor per person is necessary to satisfy this “need.” That doesn’t seem beneficial to workers as a whole. I thought innovation was supposed to benefit everyone? Where’s the hole in this logic?

phil21 4y ago
When the current crop of retirees were in peak earning periods, there were something around 6-8 workers per retiree. Data on France isn't super easy to come by. By 2030 this is expected to be about 2, which is better than I expected. You would need massive productivity gains inside the span of the past 40 years to make up 4-6 workers per retiree in labor. The fact I have 4-6 less cousins my age to sell my labor to to help take care of grandma doesn't seem to offset that huge amount of labor now needed to be expended on largely unproductive tasks. We went from 4-6 people pitching in to help out grandma each day to just myself. If you look at that in hours vs. dollars, the problem starts to become quite apparent to me. I don't feel I'm 500% more efficient at what I do than my elders. Perhaps we've innovated so well that we can now support old folks with a fraction of the labor, but I'm skeptical. Fixed costs seem rather fixed, and from where I'm sitting I think a whole lot of that "innovation budget" has been spent already on rising expectations of minimum quality of living.
nradov 4y ago
Compared to productive workers, retirees will need less of some things and more of others. In particular demand for healthcare is increasing. Expect most countries to increasingly ration healthcare, especially for elderly people.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  One of the biggest changes in coming decades culturally might be how long are we ready to prolong life of average person. Rich can afford it on their own, but same doesn't apply to you normal pensioner.

phil21 4y ago

When the current crop of retirees were in peak earning periods, there were something around 6-8 workers per retiree. Data on France isn't super easy to come by. By 2030 this is expected to be about 2, which is better than I expected. You would need massive productivity gains inside the span of the past 40 years to make up 4-6 workers per retiree in labor. The fact I have 4-6 less cousins my age to sell my labor to to help take care of grandma doesn't seem to offset that huge amount of labor now needed to be expended on largely unproductive tasks. We went from 4-6 people pitching in to help out grandma each day to just myself. If you look at that in hours vs. dollars, the problem starts to become quite apparent to me. I don't feel I'm 500% more efficient at what I do than my elders. Perhaps we've innovated so well that we can now support old folks with a fraction of the labor, but I'm skeptical. Fixed costs seem rather fixed, and from where I'm sitting I think a whole lot of that "innovation budget" has been spent already on rising expectations of minimum quality of living.

nradov 4y ago

Compared to productive workers, retirees will need less of some things and more of others. In particular demand for healthcare is increasing. Expect most countries to increasingly ration healthcare, especially for elderly people.

Ekaros 4y ago
One of the biggest changes in coming decades culturally might be how long are we ready to prolong life of average person. Rich can afford it on their own, but same doesn't apply to you normal pensioner.