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A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward sid

by lumost 4y ago

A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.

dirtyid 4y ago
PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.
- lumost 4y ago
  > Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australia/EU(?) and China benefits no one and runs dangerously close to a world war. In a similar way that Russia could attempt to stop arms flows from Poland and Germany into Ukraine - they don't really have the option without risking a full war which they cannot win. In a hypothetical "narrow" conflict over the Taiwan straight between the US and China, a Chinese victory would mean 20k+ American casualties and an absent Pacific/Indian Ocean fleet. In the best case, China will no longer enjoy US protected global shipping lanes due to an absent USN. Worst case, the US threatens nuclear escalation to arrest the conflict (or follows through on the threat). A US victory would mean that the Chinese mainland is under direct attack from US carrier groups - Nuclear escalation would be almost inevitable. The likely outcome is that the US and other Taiwan allies would be allowed to supply Taiwan without intervention in order to avoid a wider war.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.
    - lumost 4y ago
      Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure. Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced. The two thousand cruise missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine have failed to degrade infrastructure. Even with 20k+ cruise missiles - makeshift ports were constructed in days during ww2.
      - missedthecue 4y ago
        There are 22 airports in Taiwan and only 4 with the infrastructure to handle cargo flights. China has over 100,000 rockets and missiles estimated to be in their inventory, and the best manufacturing system in the world to produce more. A 747 cannot land on a ripped up and shredded runway, and it cannot offload goods into burning warehouses. Not to mention the ridiculous idea of trying to feed, clothe, and care for 25 million people living on the island of Taiwan with aircraft. It cannot be compared to the berlin airlift which supplied a fraction of the people with a fraction of the goods, and whose flights lasted less than an hour. Flights to Taiwan would likely come from Tokyo, which is an 8 hour round trip. And they would probably need complex refueling operations on at least one of the legs, because Taiwan would run out of jet fuel immediately. The US doesn't have enough of a tanker fleet to support something like this, or enough cargo aircraft fitted with refueling probes. As for ports, China does need to level them, they just need to place some of their 200,000+ sea mines in the approaches to Taiwan. They can do this with subs, aircraft, high speed watercraft and even with rocket launchers. Luckily for China, the major Taiwanese ports are on the coast which faces the strait rather than the open pacific, simplifying matters.

by lumost 4y ago

dirtyid 4y ago

PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.

lumost 4y ago
> Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australia/EU(?) and China benefits no one and runs dangerously close to a world war. In a similar way that Russia could attempt to stop arms flows from Poland and Germany into Ukraine - they don't really have the option without risking a full war which they cannot win. In a hypothetical "narrow" conflict over the Taiwan straight between the US and China, a Chinese victory would mean 20k+ American casualties and an absent Pacific/Indian Ocean fleet. In the best case, China will no longer enjoy US protected global shipping lanes due to an absent USN. Worst case, the US threatens nuclear escalation to arrest the conflict (or follows through on the threat). A US victory would mean that the Chinese mainland is under direct attack from US carrier groups - Nuclear escalation would be almost inevitable. The likely outcome is that the US and other Taiwan allies would be allowed to supply Taiwan without intervention in order to avoid a wider war.
- missedthecue 4y ago
  China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.
  - lumost 4y ago
    Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure. Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced. The two thousand cruise missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine have failed to degrade infrastructure. Even with 20k+ cruise missiles - makeshift ports were constructed in days during ww2.
    - missedthecue 4y ago
      There are 22 airports in Taiwan and only 4 with the infrastructure to handle cargo flights. China has over 100,000 rockets and missiles estimated to be in their inventory, and the best manufacturing system in the world to produce more. A 747 cannot land on a ripped up and shredded runway, and it cannot offload goods into burning warehouses. Not to mention the ridiculous idea of trying to feed, clothe, and care for 25 million people living on the island of Taiwan with aircraft. It cannot be compared to the berlin airlift which supplied a fraction of the people with a fraction of the goods, and whose flights lasted less than an hour. Flights to Taiwan would likely come from Tokyo, which is an 8 hour round trip. And they would probably need complex refueling operations on at least one of the legs, because Taiwan would run out of jet fuel immediately. The US doesn't have enough of a tanker fleet to support something like this, or enough cargo aircraft fitted with refueling probes. As for ports, China does need to level them, they just need to place some of their 200,000+ sea mines in the approaches to Taiwan. They can do this with subs, aircraft, high speed watercraft and even with rocket launchers. Luckily for China, the major Taiwanese ports are on the coast which faces the strait rather than the open pacific, simplifying matters.