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A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already f

A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.

cm2187 4y ago
Historically, public opinions tend to unite against adversity. If the aim is to gain the public opinions it would be counterproductive. I think the support for Russia in the Ukrainian public opinion is pretty much gone now.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Historically sieges also tend work if conditions become existential, which it will if TW is denied energy and food imports which doesn't even touch on effects of taking out electricity or water infra. UKR can be resupplied via ample land routes and be comfortably defiant. TW's reduced to below subsistence defiance which tend to come with biological timer.
NicoJuicy 4y ago
Quick search: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-... Which political parties?
postingawayonhn 4y ago
China also imports a lot of food and fuel. If China tries to blockade Taiwan I'm sure the west will look to blockade China.
lumost 4y ago
A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.
  - lumost 4y ago
    > Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australia/EU(?) and China benefits no one and runs dangerously close to a world war. In a similar way that Russia could attempt to stop arms flows from Poland and Germany into Ukraine - they don't really have the option without risking a full war which they cannot win. In a hypothetical "narrow" conflict over the Taiwan straight between the US and China, a Chinese victory would mean 20k+ American casualties and an absent Pacific/Indian Ocean fleet. In the best case, China will no longer enjoy US protected global shipping lanes due to an absent USN. Worst case, the US threatens nuclear escalation to arrest the conflict (or follows through on the threat). A US victory would mean that the Chinese mainland is under direct attack from US carrier groups - Nuclear escalation would be almost inevitable. The likely outcome is that the US and other Taiwan allies would be allowed to supply Taiwan without intervention in order to avoid a wider war.
    - missedthecue 4y ago
      China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.
      - lumost 4y ago
        Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure. Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced. The two thousand cruise missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine have failed to degrade infrastructure. Even with 20k+ cruise missiles - makeshift ports were constructed in days during ww2.
0xDEF 4y ago
>Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China Why do people lie so much on the Internet? There are some Taiwanese boomers who are more interested in removing communist rule in China than in gaining Taiwanese independence. But I doubt that is what you meant with "favor closer ties with China".

cm2187 4y ago

Historically, public opinions tend to unite against adversity. If the aim is to gain the public opinions it would be counterproductive. I think the support for Russia in the Ukrainian public opinion is pretty much gone now.

dirtyid 4y ago
Historically sieges also tend work if conditions become existential, which it will if TW is denied energy and food imports which doesn't even touch on effects of taking out electricity or water infra. UKR can be resupplied via ample land routes and be comfortably defiant. TW's reduced to below subsistence defiance which tend to come with biological timer.

NicoJuicy 4y ago

Quick search: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-... Which political parties?

postingawayonhn 4y ago

China also imports a lot of food and fuel. If China tries to blockade Taiwan I'm sure the west will look to blockade China.

lumost 4y ago

A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.

dirtyid 4y ago
PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.
- lumost 4y ago
  > Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australia/EU(?) and China benefits no one and runs dangerously close to a world war. In a similar way that Russia could attempt to stop arms flows from Poland and Germany into Ukraine - they don't really have the option without risking a full war which they cannot win. In a hypothetical "narrow" conflict over the Taiwan straight between the US and China, a Chinese victory would mean 20k+ American casualties and an absent Pacific/Indian Ocean fleet. In the best case, China will no longer enjoy US protected global shipping lanes due to an absent USN. Worst case, the US threatens nuclear escalation to arrest the conflict (or follows through on the threat). A US victory would mean that the Chinese mainland is under direct attack from US carrier groups - Nuclear escalation would be almost inevitable. The likely outcome is that the US and other Taiwan allies would be allowed to supply Taiwan without intervention in order to avoid a wider war.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.
    - lumost 4y ago
      Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure. Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced. The two thousand cruise missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine have failed to degrade infrastructure. Even with 20k+ cruise missiles - makeshift ports were constructed in days during ww2.

0xDEF 4y ago

>Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China Why do people lie so much on the Internet? There are some Taiwanese boomers who are more interested in removing communist rule in China than in gaining Taiwanese independence. But I doubt that is what you meant with "favor closer ties with China".