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Yet China is set to come out of 2023 with GDP growth above 5% with numerous economic forward indicators indicating a massive rebound, ie: https://www.reuters.c

Yet China is set to come out of 2023 with GDP growth above 5% with numerous economic forward indicators indicating a massive rebound, ie: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-feb-manufacturing-activity-expands-fastest-since-april-2012-official-pmi-2023-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-feb-manufacturing... China's factory activity stuns with fastest growth in a decade BEIJING, March 1 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, an official index showed on Wednesday, smashing expectations as production zoomed after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions late last year. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) shot up to 52.6 from 50.1 in January, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, above the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity. The PMI far exceeded an analyst forecast of 50.5 and was the highest reading since April 2012.

marianatom 4y ago
Government numbers, enough said. This is a government that just raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, proclaimed that one can take on a mortgage at age 70 and let the heirs inherit the mortgage, and do not issue passports freely. Where its banks has delayed its customers from paying off mortgage in full, and from withdrawing large amount of cash. Does that sound like a healthy economy? Again, watch online testimonials from average citizens, and you will see entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  You can also look at the US-China trade numbers which are at record high if you don't trust the Chinese government.
  - marianatom 4y ago
    that's for 2022. 2023 numbers will be horrendous, based on the 40% export collapse seen in January 2023. Hong Kong exports post biggest plunge in 70 years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post-biggest-plunge-in-70-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post...
    - throwaway4good 4y ago
      No. They won't. That's what the manufacturing PMI shows.
    - jjeaff 4y ago
      What accounts for a 40% collapse? That's an enormous shortfall for such a large economy.
      - marianatom 4y ago
        - factories in Southeast Asia that were started shortly after the Trump sanctions in 2017 or covid 2020, that have finally come online - CHIP act in mid 2022 from Biden that spurred Apple to finally drag its immoral lazy feet - Russia invasion of Ukraine, and Chinese proclamation of friendship with no limits shortly after - covid lockdowns in China in early 2022 that shut down factories - increasing electric rationing every year in China that shut down factories - Foxconn factory riots - very loud geopolitical risks that C level execs can no longer pretend not to hear - can't move money out of China. 'I can't get my money out': Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says China is restricting flows of capital out of the country. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-china-investing-capital-restricting-outflows-markets-strategy-jinping-2023-3 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-...
        vehementi 4y ago
        > - can't move money out of China. 'I can't get my money out': Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says China is restricting flows of capital out of the country. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-... This has been true for 10+ years
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
A lot of that GDP growth is in real estate, construction, tearing things down (GDP!), building new things (GDP!), tearing them down again (also GDP…), repeat. Youth employment numbers will give you a better idea of how the economy is really doing, I’ve been through plenty of non-recessions in China where growth is still amazing yet kids are having trouble finding jobs.
- marianatom 4y ago
  China's youth unemployment is at 20% end of 2022. https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-like-i-ve-been-abandoned-by-the-world-chinese-youth-hit-by-record-unemployment https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-lik..., a Great Depression type of number. With the recent estimated 80% reduction in factory jobs in 2023, One can assume the unemployment is a lot worse than 20%. If you look at some of the online videos, you will see factories that are now requiring only female workers, workers under 23, etc. You will see 100 people in line for 3-4 positions.
  - zarzavat 4y ago
    > If you look at some of the online videos, you will see factories that are now requiring only female workers, workers under 23, etc. For perspective, this is rather common outside China too. Working in a factory is hard work and factories often have severe age limits. China's demographic problems mean that its time as a factory hub was always going to be limited.
philliphaydon 4y ago
The thing about Chinas GDP is we don’t know their real GDP. We only know what we have been told. Just like COVID. We are told there’s very few COVID deaths, but we don’t know how many deaths there are and no one talks about the days long queues for cremation.
- FooBarWidget 4y ago
  People have been saying for 30+ years that all numbers out of China are lies. If that's true then China is as poor as Africa. When it's so weak, why worry about China all the time? Just let them die in their misery, there is no China Threat. In the mean time, you could also visit China, talk to people, and ask them whether they prefer the China today or the China from 30 years ago.
  - philliphaydon 4y ago
    Just because they can lie and fudge statistics doesn’t mean they are poor or weak. If it’s so great why aren’t you there though?
    - FooBarWidget 4y ago
      That's such a weird argument. Do people only leave their home country if their home country is bad? Do people who live abroad have no right to defend their home country from slander? The answer is generally "no" to both, but when it comes to China people can't comprehend anything other than "yes". Just think about how weird that is. I increasingly believe that such hypocrisy simply indicates bad faith.
      - philliphaydon 4y ago
        [flagged]
        FooBarWidget 4y ago
        [flagged]

marianatom 4y ago

Government numbers, enough said. This is a government that just raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, proclaimed that one can take on a mortgage at age 70 and let the heirs inherit the mortgage, and do not issue passports freely. Where its banks has delayed its customers from paying off mortgage in full, and from withdrawing large amount of cash. Does that sound like a healthy economy? Again, watch online testimonials from average citizens, and you will see entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs

throwaway4good 4y ago
You can also look at the US-China trade numbers which are at record high if you don't trust the Chinese government.
- marianatom 4y ago
  that's for 2022. 2023 numbers will be horrendous, based on the 40% export collapse seen in January 2023. Hong Kong exports post biggest plunge in 70 years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post-biggest-plunge-in-70-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post...
  - throwaway4good 4y ago
    No. They won't. That's what the manufacturing PMI shows.
  - jjeaff 4y ago
    What accounts for a 40% collapse? That's an enormous shortfall for such a large economy.
    - marianatom 4y ago
      - factories in Southeast Asia that were started shortly after the Trump sanctions in 2017 or covid 2020, that have finally come online - CHIP act in mid 2022 from Biden that spurred Apple to finally drag its immoral lazy feet - Russia invasion of Ukraine, and Chinese proclamation of friendship with no limits shortly after - covid lockdowns in China in early 2022 that shut down factories - increasing electric rationing every year in China that shut down factories - Foxconn factory riots - very loud geopolitical risks that C level execs can no longer pretend not to hear - can't move money out of China. 'I can't get my money out': Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says China is restricting flows of capital out of the country. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-china-investing-capital-restricting-outflows-markets-strategy-jinping-2023-3 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-...
      - vehementi 4y ago
        > - can't move money out of China. 'I can't get my money out': Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says China is restricting flows of capital out of the country. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-... This has been true for 10+ years

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

A lot of that GDP growth is in real estate, construction, tearing things down (GDP!), building new things (GDP!), tearing them down again (also GDP…), repeat. Youth employment numbers will give you a better idea of how the economy is really doing, I’ve been through plenty of non-recessions in China where growth is still amazing yet kids are having trouble finding jobs.

marianatom 4y ago
China's youth unemployment is at 20% end of 2022. https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-like-i-ve-been-abandoned-by-the-world-chinese-youth-hit-by-record-unemployment https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221021-i-feel-lik..., a Great Depression type of number. With the recent estimated 80% reduction in factory jobs in 2023, One can assume the unemployment is a lot worse than 20%. If you look at some of the online videos, you will see factories that are now requiring only female workers, workers under 23, etc. You will see 100 people in line for 3-4 positions.
- zarzavat 4y ago
  > If you look at some of the online videos, you will see factories that are now requiring only female workers, workers under 23, etc. For perspective, this is rather common outside China too. Working in a factory is hard work and factories often have severe age limits. China's demographic problems mean that its time as a factory hub was always going to be limited.

philliphaydon 4y ago

The thing about Chinas GDP is we don’t know their real GDP. We only know what we have been told. Just like COVID. We are told there’s very few COVID deaths, but we don’t know how many deaths there are and no one talks about the days long queues for cremation.

FooBarWidget 4y ago
People have been saying for 30+ years that all numbers out of China are lies. If that's true then China is as poor as Africa. When it's so weak, why worry about China all the time? Just let them die in their misery, there is no China Threat. In the mean time, you could also visit China, talk to people, and ask them whether they prefer the China today or the China from 30 years ago.
- philliphaydon 4y ago
  Just because they can lie and fudge statistics doesn’t mean they are poor or weak. If it’s so great why aren’t you there though?
  - FooBarWidget 4y ago
    That's such a weird argument. Do people only leave their home country if their home country is bad? Do people who live abroad have no right to defend their home country from slander? The answer is generally "no" to both, but when it comes to China people can't comprehend anything other than "yes". Just think about how weird that is. I increasingly believe that such hypocrisy simply indicates bad faith.
    - philliphaydon 4y ago
      [flagged]
      - FooBarWidget 4y ago
        [flagged]