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China is in a state of terminal decline and closing off to the world, barring any huge macro trend reversal (CCP loses power) - Factories are quickly moving ou

• mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
  I wonder what happens when Western megacorps run out of third world to put their factories in.
  • mostlysimilar 4y ago
    Hopefully put them in their home countries.
  • satvikpendem 4y ago
    That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. I was talking with someone a few years ago who is from one of these third world countries who lamented that corporations were coming in. I asked them whether they thought the people who worked there would prefer a relatively stable factory job over backbreaking farm work, factory jobs which usually pay more than the average wage of the area anyway in order to entice people to start working there. Free trade is good.
    • bryanrasmussen 4y ago
      >That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. maybe climate changes makes lots of hotter countries unlivable.
  • throwaway4good 4y ago
    Foreign companies in China will probably do fine as they live in the real world and not in the wild world of politics and speculation. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions Trade between the US and China hit a record high last year even as their diplomatic relations deteriorated. Imports and exports between the two countries totalled $690.6bn (£572.6bn) in 2022, official figures show.
    • mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
      Really not sure what trade relations between the US and China has to do with the very general strategic practice of placing factories in countries with low wages and limited worker rights, in order to cut costs.
      • throwaway4good 4y ago
• throwaway4good 4y ago
  Yet China is set to come out of 2023 with GDP growth above 5% with numerous economic forward indicators indicating a massive rebound, ie: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-feb-manufacturing-activity-expands-fastest-since-april-2012-official-pmi-2023-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-feb-manufacturing... China's factory activity stuns with fastest growth in a decade BEIJING, March 1 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, an official index showed on Wednesday, smashing expectations as production zoomed after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions late last year. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) shot up to 52.6 from 50.1 in January, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, above the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity. The PMI far exceeded an analyst forecast of 50.5 and was the highest reading since April 2012.
  • marianatom 4y ago
    Government numbers, enough said. This is a government that just raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, proclaimed that one can take on a mortgage at age 70 and let the heirs inherit the mortgage, and do not issue passports freely. Where its banks has delayed its customers from paying off mortgage in full, and from withdrawing large amount of cash. Does that sound like a healthy economy? Again, watch online testimonials from average citizens, and you will see entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oApzG9ycwkw, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBpybdnYVEs
    • throwaway4good 4y ago
      You can also look at the US-China trade numbers which are at record high if you don't trust the Chinese government.
      • marianatom 4y ago
        that's for 2022. 2023 numbers will be horrendous, based on the 40% export collapse seen in January 2023. Hong Kong exports post biggest plunge in 70 years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post-biggest-plunge-in-70-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post...
• _dain_ 4y ago
  > China is in a state of terminal decline and closing off to the world, barring any huge macro trend reversal (CCP loses power) While everyone would love this to be true, I've been hearing this shit for a decade. I'll believe it when there are Islamic dronelords rampaging through the hinterlands of Sinkiang province, neo-steppe cyberwarriors laying waste to Peking, and Elon Musk has a territorial concession over Shenzhen. That's what a proper true-blue "China collapse" scenario looks like in the 21st century, accept no substitutes.
  • Dah00n 4y ago
    >While everyone would love this to be true Please speak for yourself only. Also, not everyone want bad things for others because of some hatred guided by politicians. PRC is no worse than the US - just different.
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• Simon_O_Rourke 4y ago
  The Apple-focus is indicative of a wider trend - viewing China and its economy through a Western lens - even seeing what we want to see. The CCP is going nowhere, the market while having taken a recent hit, is in no way about to collapse. > There are people with entire savings lost in real estate and small business. It's a very volatile situation. The same could be said of NYC or Switzerland in the previous couple of years too.
  • whendoyoushrink 4y ago
    Can you clarify what is "the market"? The stock market? The economy?
  • marianatom 4y ago
    Export is 20% of China's economy, real estate is another 20-30% of China's economy. That's 50% of the total economy. Based on on the ground estimate (short sale/foreclosure by the court figures), real estate price has collapsed 50%. Based on Hong Kong numbers, export has collapsed 40%. The vicious cycle of collapsing demand -> job losses -> weakening spending -> investments pulling out -> collapsing demand will see no end.
  • tenpies 4y ago
    The mind-boggling side for me is that the West is obsessed with Apple leaving China, but never bothers to check where all the EV manufacturers are. Even Tesla, without the Shanghai factory, would probably be doomed. If I had to put money on which EV company becomes the next major car company of the world, I would almost certainly bet that it's going to be a Chinese one. So sure, while a stagnant industry that is no longer growing may leave and that sucks, but the next huge growth industry is firmly entrenched in China and dependent on Chinese companies. Tales of China's demise are grossly exaggerated.
    • marianatom 4y ago
      Tesla is building its next major factory in Mexico https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/tesla-mexico-plant/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/tesla-mexico-plant/i..., that's how much Elon believes in China. > If I had to put money on which EV company becomes the next major car company of the world, I would almost certainly bet that it's going to be a Chinese one. Do you mean WM motor? one of the most promising startup https://www.autonews.com/china/wm-motor-pay-cuts-layoffs-signal-ev-market-under-stress https://www.autonews.com/china/wm-motor-pay-cuts-layoffs-sig... where at least 20 percent of WM Motor’s workforce has been laid off since November? or Didi/Li auto venture? https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-didi-ev-joint-venture-with-li-auto-applies-bankruptcy-court-2022-08-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas... which declared bankruptcy? or Nio, whose stock was as high as $62, now below $10? or BYD, whose stock has been offloaded by Warren Buffet by 1/3 since august of last year? or China's car industry as a whole https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-china-by-month https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automoti..., whose production dropped 35% and sales dropped 34% in January 2023? And why would a Chinese car company not be sanctioned/outlawed relating to the CHIP act, or something similar out of Europe?
• Convolutional 4y ago
  > China is in a state of terminal decline People have been saying this 1949.
  • Upvoter33 4y ago
    and, wow, it was true under Mao. In 1960, something like 30 million people starved. GDP up until the 80's was like that of a small US state.
    • Barrin92 4y ago
      while Mao's era was comically brutal and took a wrecking ball to economic development it also unified the country (China's foremost problem throughout thousands of years of history), life expectancy jumped by 30(!) years, and the country obtained universal literacy. Today in India a quarter of the population is still illiterate. The evaluation of Mao's legacy seems somewhat emotional, short-sighted and ahistorical given that modern state formation, for example in Europe, was almost always preceded by catastrophic violence. And of course the rise of China in the following decades invalidates the claim that China 'declined terminally', unless we're literally inverting the meaning of the word 'terminal'.
      • refurb 4y ago
        The evaluation of Mao's legacy seems somewhat emotional Sorry for getting emotional about 30 million people killed by by a brutal, dictatorial government. Thanks for putting it in perspective! /s
        • Barrin92 4y ago
          I mean does perspective not matter if we're talking about history? The Qing conquest killed 30 million, so did the Taiping Rebellion. 40 million died during the Three Kingdom wars, in 200 AD! About half the population at the time. Dynastic historical change in China was always that violent. It's not that unlikely that people in a hundred years, if China continues to develop, look at that period as the foundation for it. No different than our perspective on Napoleon. Incredibly brutal, brought war to Europe, but also implemented the civic code, arguably the most influential legal document in history.
• bsder 4y ago
  > Apple, a China laggard, has finally decided to pull the string and move itself and all its related supply chain out of China. Apple got shaken down by the Chinese government right before Covid. If they didn't finally pull the plug after that, I would have to question whether anybody was awake at the helm.
• seydor 4y ago
  "China is terminal" is such a strong meme now that the Chinese will sure find a way to capitalize on it. And pay some royalties to Zeihan
• jjtheblunt 4y ago
  > Apple, a China laggard, has finally decided to pull the string and move itself and all its related supply chain out of China. Is there a citation for that? If so then I have missed it.
• Salgat 4y ago
  China is falling into the Dictator's Trap with Xi. I'm not saying the Communist Party was ideal, but having a system where the entire party kept itself in check worked surprisingly well, and each generation knew the next generation, including their children, would inherit the party and they worked to keep things good and all the factions in check. With Xi, there is no point in any of that. You surround yourself with sycophants and send away anyone who you deem a threat. Your concerns for the country become entirely around how the country can benefit yourself, specifically securing your position as their master until your death. Expect to see a lot more nationalism and isolationism as Xi pits China against the boogeymen countries of the world.
  • pewpew2020 4y ago
    >>> but having a system where the entire party kept itself in check worked surprisingly well, and each generation knew the next generation, including their children, would inherit the party The system you are talking about was Jiang's faction. Every few years one or the other faction becomes dominant. Now it's Xi's faction. Nothing has changed, it is business as usual.
    • Salgat 4y ago
      That's ignoring that Xi ended presidential term limits and stacked the PSC with loyalists. The last Chinese leader with this much concentrated political power was Mao Zedong.
• FooBarWidget 4y ago
  If China is in terminal decline and closing off to the world then why is everybody hysteric about the China Threat? Why is the US throwing increasingly harsh sanctions on China, to the point of coercing allies into sanctioning China as well? I propose that the media and HN stop reporting on China, and that the US stops sanctioning China. This frees up mind space and resources to focus on domestic problems such as climate change, income inequality, housing, improving democracy, etc. After all China is in decline anyway so no point in worrying about them, right?
  • erenyeager 4y ago
    China’s involvement in atrocities against Uighurs (including putting them in “reeducation” camps, forcibly sterilizing women, forcing Uighur women to marry chinese men, trying to erase Uighur culture) is reason enough to maintain and increase sanctions. Sure economically countries often ignore things like this, but with the current US orientation against china Increasing, it makes sense to focus on this more.
  • hnfong 4y ago
    The US lost a war against Afghanistan FFS. A China in terminal decline is probably still a "threat" to the US in the sense that American Imperialism still wants to believe it can enforce its values by sheer military power.
• tim333 4y ago
  >terminal decline I don't think so. It boomed epically from Deng Xiaoping opening up to Xi closing down a bit again. But Xi won't be there forever and the place will muddle through. Maybe a temporary relative decline for a decade or so.
• spywaregorilla 4y ago
  > China's unwavering decision to be friends with Russia with "no limit" is slow changing into "directly giving military aids". US and EU is threatening sanctions on China for this, something that most on this board would consider impossible a year ago. This is pretty contradictory. If you're friend with no limit, military aid should be clearly on the table. There are in fact hard limits. China is extremely hesitant to send military aid and have been his entire time. I don't think they will send anything noteworthy personally, but it's more than plausible I'm wrong here. I'm vaguely optimistic that a Ukranian move to get Crimea within fire control will in fact make the war come to a relatively fast end. Ukraine simply needs to recreate the conditions that led to Russia's flight from Kherson in Crimea. Such a loss will be far more devastating. At that point something needs to give. Fingers crossed for the spring.
• AtlasBarfed 4y ago
  China backing Russia only further entrenches Western support for a side that is fundamentally winning the war. And really, China is backing Putin to a certain degree, not Russia. If Putin's regime falls, the next power structure has a choice: 1) ally with Europe and apologize to the newly empowered Ukraine that is just a couple hundred miles from Moscow (and now has a modern, well-trained Western military of substantial capability), and where all your elites want to travel and live in 2) ally with China who are thousands of miles away, where most significant economic activity is across deserts and mountains, and none of your elites want to visit