4 ms·

A year in, it had between 1.5 and 3.5 percent mortality rate, the first few months it was up to 15 percent in some areas and segments of the population [1]. Eve

A year in, it had between 1.5 and 3.5 percent mortality rate, the first few months it was up to 15 percent in some areas and segments of the population [1]. Even today at 0.1-1 percent fatality rate [1], the odds are horrible for something so easy to contract. NB the statistic does not differentiate by vaccination status. Yet, despite those odds, an enormous segment of the population of the US failed to all sorts of cognitive biases, and is convinced, contrary to all evidence [2], that it's better to get covid than a vaccine. This indicates to me that the US has failed as a society to respond well to such a preventable disease. Denmark ( where I lived during Covid ) handled it much better and is a similarly capitalistic society, but with a different attitude towards institutions, and the issue was not politicized. The general population listened to the CDC-equivalent institution. The government offered free testing, (rapid+the more expensive ones), and was proactive with respect to vaccination. The government coordinated a very successful booster vaccination campaign in early January of 2022, effectively ending the covid era. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-co...

taeric 4y ago
The death rate is so hard to really interpret. It is stupid skewed by age in ways that so many other things aren't. Even for non-vaccinated people, you have to get into the 30s before you see that number jump above .1 after the initial wave. And the initial wave being so high just screams that we weren't counting the accurate number, as we didn't know how widespread infections were. As we learned that more and more infections were effectively asymptomatic, early numbers on what was happening are hard to take at face value. None of which is to downplay it. Lots of people died. I hope we can find actionable things to help for any future outbreaks.
- PartiallyTyped 4y ago
  > As we learned that more and more infections were effectively asymptomatic, early numbers on what was happening are hard to take at face value. According to [1], it's 40.5% of the confirmed population. It's indeed a high rate, but those cases are also taken into consideration wrt to mortality rate as far as I am aware. It also highlights just how transmissible this virus is, allowing it to eventually infect the vulnerable population. We also learned that covid was a component in a very large portion of excess deaths. Yes, somebody may have died of cancer, but covid was also present. It's possible that the patient sans covid would not have died. Plus, there is the inverse, long covid and its symptoms lingering and weakening the population making it susceptible to subsequent diseases. The problem however, in all of this, is that any trust to certain institutions in the US is now gone, which will only cause more harm. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787098 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle... > In this meta-analysis of the percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among populations tested for and with confirmed COVID-19, the pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections was 0.25% among the tested population and 40.50% among the confirmed population.
  - taeric 4y ago
    The charts did not seem to get updated based on backfilling of how many people were infected. Or does that just not reflect on how I read the charts? I still get people that are 100% convinced young people were somehow not getting it during the initial waves. Which frankly is non-sensical. Knowing that kids can get it, there is no explanation I have seen that could somehow magically have kept it out of every school that hadn't closed yet in the first year. And testing is still... interesting. With many I know that test positive only doing so weeks after any symptoms, such that I was even told that 'loss of smell' is no longer a defining symptom? Schools have flat given up on either testing or requiring negative before the kids are allowed back. Ours at least encourage and support masking during the return period. I don't think it is trust in the institutions, necessarily. Though, that certainly isn't helping. I think it is lack of certainty period. In large because we just don't have anyone with a 100% handle on the situation.
nradov 4y ago
Please stop spreading misinformation. The population level infection fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 was never as high as 1.5% at any stage of the pandemic. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655
- PartiallyTyped 4y ago
  Sure, fair enough I used the reported cases to deaths, for that rate which is what the world in data listed. In contrast the CDC claims that it is now a 0.6% rate. This however, reinforces my point, even with an exaggerated deathrate we failed to properly contain the disease and take things seriously.
  - nradov 4y ago
    In open societies outside of a few islands there was never any real possibility of containing the virus after it left Wuhan. And what does "take things seriously" even mean? The notion that regular people should restrict their lifestyles and submit to mandates indefinitely over a virus with a >99% survival rate was always stupid.
    - PartiallyTyped 4y ago
      > The notion that regular people should restrict their lifestyles and submit to mandates indefinitely over a virus with a >99% survival rate was always stupid. We didnt know that at the time. The statistics at the time showed a very different story. You can compare the handling of the situation across countries and regions with similar socioeconomic conditions and observe that certain states performed significantly worse than counterparts outside. I didn’t speak about indefinite mandates either and mentioned Denmark repeatedly, for a good reason. In Denmark we didn’t have vaccine or mask mandates, and opened well before most countries in January of 2022 while sustaining far fewer deaths compared to say Sweden.
      - 4y ago

taeric 4y ago

The death rate is so hard to really interpret. It is stupid skewed by age in ways that so many other things aren't. Even for non-vaccinated people, you have to get into the 30s before you see that number jump above .1 after the initial wave. And the initial wave being so high just screams that we weren't counting the accurate number, as we didn't know how widespread infections were. As we learned that more and more infections were effectively asymptomatic, early numbers on what was happening are hard to take at face value. None of which is to downplay it. Lots of people died. I hope we can find actionable things to help for any future outbreaks.

PartiallyTyped 4y ago
> As we learned that more and more infections were effectively asymptomatic, early numbers on what was happening are hard to take at face value. According to [1], it's 40.5% of the confirmed population. It's indeed a high rate, but those cases are also taken into consideration wrt to mortality rate as far as I am aware. It also highlights just how transmissible this virus is, allowing it to eventually infect the vulnerable population. We also learned that covid was a component in a very large portion of excess deaths. Yes, somebody may have died of cancer, but covid was also present. It's possible that the patient sans covid would not have died. Plus, there is the inverse, long covid and its symptoms lingering and weakening the population making it susceptible to subsequent diseases. The problem however, in all of this, is that any trust to certain institutions in the US is now gone, which will only cause more harm. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787098 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle... > In this meta-analysis of the percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among populations tested for and with confirmed COVID-19, the pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections was 0.25% among the tested population and 40.50% among the confirmed population.
- taeric 4y ago
  The charts did not seem to get updated based on backfilling of how many people were infected. Or does that just not reflect on how I read the charts? I still get people that are 100% convinced young people were somehow not getting it during the initial waves. Which frankly is non-sensical. Knowing that kids can get it, there is no explanation I have seen that could somehow magically have kept it out of every school that hadn't closed yet in the first year. And testing is still... interesting. With many I know that test positive only doing so weeks after any symptoms, such that I was even told that 'loss of smell' is no longer a defining symptom? Schools have flat given up on either testing or requiring negative before the kids are allowed back. Ours at least encourage and support masking during the return period. I don't think it is trust in the institutions, necessarily. Though, that certainly isn't helping. I think it is lack of certainty period. In large because we just don't have anyone with a 100% handle on the situation.

nradov 4y ago

Please stop spreading misinformation. The population level infection fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 was never as high as 1.5% at any stage of the pandemic. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655

PartiallyTyped 4y ago
Sure, fair enough I used the reported cases to deaths, for that rate which is what the world in data listed. In contrast the CDC claims that it is now a 0.6% rate. This however, reinforces my point, even with an exaggerated deathrate we failed to properly contain the disease and take things seriously.
- nradov 4y ago
  In open societies outside of a few islands there was never any real possibility of containing the virus after it left Wuhan. And what does "take things seriously" even mean? The notion that regular people should restrict their lifestyles and submit to mandates indefinitely over a virus with a >99% survival rate was always stupid.
  - PartiallyTyped 4y ago
    > The notion that regular people should restrict their lifestyles and submit to mandates indefinitely over a virus with a >99% survival rate was always stupid. We didnt know that at the time. The statistics at the time showed a very different story. You can compare the handling of the situation across countries and regions with similar socioeconomic conditions and observe that certain states performed significantly worse than counterparts outside. I didn’t speak about indefinite mandates either and mentioned Denmark repeatedly, for a good reason. In Denmark we didn’t have vaccine or mask mandates, and opened well before most countries in January of 2022 while sustaining far fewer deaths compared to say Sweden.
    - 4y ago