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Well as long as people are spending and the US unemployment rate is low, this article means nothing. I guess they never heard of Interest Rates or Working from

by jmclnx 4y ago

Well as long as people are spending and the US unemployment rate is low, this article means nothing. I guess they never heard of Interest Rates or Working from Home or real wages increasing (though slowly) :) Anyway, I am starting to believe these "recession is on the way" articles as the top 1% trying to cause one so they can prevent the slow movement from slave wages to almost livable wages.

_8j50 4y ago
Who stands to benefit the most from a recession? I am curious because this talk has consistently been rubbish.
- kingkawn 4y ago
  Everyone who wants in on the ground floor of of the next boom
- newaccount2021 4y ago
  [dead]
sokoloff 4y ago
I think there’s a more likely explanation that the longer an expansion cycle goes, the more time people spend wondering when it will stop/reverse. The more people who wonder about it, the more market there is for articles talking about the inevitability.
JPKab 4y ago
The primary reason the unemployment has remained low is due to so many people primarily baby boomers, leaving the work force. High inflation means that interest rates on all loans have to be higher for banks to earn back their principal. I'm not even counting the Federal reserve needing to race their core interest rate which they will. When capital becomes more expensive businesses are more likely to fail and less likely to be started. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and lower lending. Reduced lending leads to economic contraction. Wage gains in real terms are primarily due to a supply and demand curve for labor. Most industries are having any wage gains erased by inflation. This isn't a new phenomenon with the exception of the first contraction in the labor force participation rate in decades. Inflation of this nature is only halted by reduced economic activity. Without it, it continues until real wage growth is sharply negative. By the way, if you're a reader of HN, you are almost certainly in the "1 percent" globally.
- away271828 4y ago
  >The primary reason the unemployment has remained low is due to so many people primarily baby boomers, leaving the work force. I know quite a few people in the tech sphere who, under other circumstances, might have taken some late career job (or just happily continued in their current role) who are taking their vests, retiring somewhat early, and maybe do a bit of consulting on the side. There are fewer opportunities and a lot of work environments are under a lot of financial stress these days.
  - jmclnx 4y ago
    Not to mention all the bureaucracy surrounding Jira, Agile and other items, I may end up on that train too. Years ago, word of mouth directly from the user was good enough. Now, changes have to go through several levels of bureaucracy before it can even be looked at.
    - JKCalhoun 4y ago
      Left the "industry" early for similar reasons. It used to be fun when it was looser, more bottom up. I was spoiled perhaps — but I can tell you the job ain't what it used to be.
      - away271828 4y ago
        A lot of companies grew a lot, there's a lot of economic stress/caution, budgets are tight for things like travel, a lot of scrutiny around goals/performance measurement/financial metrics/etc. While there are certainly pockets of interesting activity, I see larger companies certainly battening down hatches. Was talking to someone just last night who is counting down the days to their next vest then they're out. I have to believe a lot of employee survey results at the moment are a train wreck.
        JKCalhoun 4y ago
        I wonder though about the younger engineers who are just entering or have only recently entered the field. Do they even know what it used to be like? I have met new engineers though that seem to enjoy the current structure of modern software engineering with all its unit tests, code reviews, lint, etc. Perhaps they would not have enjoyed the more freewheeling era that I thrived on.
ericmay 4y ago
> Anyway, I am starting to believe these "recession is on the way" articles as the top 1% trying to cause one so they can prevent the slow movement from slave wages to almost livable wages. It's safe to discard this theory because it's not possible to have that kind of control through "the media" or otherwise. What's accurate is that articles like this get clicks and that's why they come into existence. This article is just a vehicle for advertising, and for every one you can find you can find an article from the same source that states the opposite or some other tangential theory.
- mcdonje 4y ago
  You are assuming the person you replied to thinks there's a cabal or conspiracy. Alternatively, the 1% could be using mass media to project their viewpoint simply because most of the mass media is owned by the 1%.
  - JKCalhoun 4y ago
    That too suggests a conspiracy though. Since the 1% are unlikely to be the ones writing the actual articles, you're going to have to have co-conspirator reporters, writers, editors, publishers. Being coerced by the 1% would in itself be quite a story, ha ha. Perhaps though you can imagine though a more subtle, undetectable way in which the 1% are able to project their viewpoint via the media that doesn't involve co-conspirators. Like the person you replied to though, I think Occam's razor suggests instead that these articles get clicks.
    - licebmi__at__ 4y ago
      I don’t think that people pleasing their bosses is such a big conspiracy.
      - ericmay 4y ago
        It isn't. It is though when you go from pleasing their bosses to "their 1% oligarch boss says to publish this article that a recession is coming so that workers wages will go down".
dboreham 4y ago
> the top 1% trying to cause one so they can prevent the slow movement from slave wages to almost livable wages Interesting. I've had the same thought for some time but hadn't seen anyone else voice this concern until now.
hammock 4y ago
Unemployment rate lags the economy, not leads. Meanwhile savings rate is dropping and consumer credit is hitting new highs
- cma 4y ago
  Wouldn't savings rate dropping in a low unemployment environment mean increased demand? I guess if it is just servicing higher interest debt demand could still be going down.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
bitshiftfaced 4y ago
Real median household income has been in decline since 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

by jmclnx 4y ago

_8j50 4y ago

Who stands to benefit the most from a recession? I am curious because this talk has consistently been rubbish.

kingkawn 4y ago
Everyone who wants in on the ground floor of of the next boom
newaccount2021 4y ago
[dead]

sokoloff 4y ago

I think there’s a more likely explanation that the longer an expansion cycle goes, the more time people spend wondering when it will stop/reverse. The more people who wonder about it, the more market there is for articles talking about the inevitability.

JPKab 4y ago

The primary reason the unemployment has remained low is due to so many people primarily baby boomers, leaving the work force. High inflation means that interest rates on all loans have to be higher for banks to earn back their principal. I'm not even counting the Federal reserve needing to race their core interest rate which they will. When capital becomes more expensive businesses are more likely to fail and less likely to be started. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and lower lending. Reduced lending leads to economic contraction. Wage gains in real terms are primarily due to a supply and demand curve for labor. Most industries are having any wage gains erased by inflation. This isn't a new phenomenon with the exception of the first contraction in the labor force participation rate in decades. Inflation of this nature is only halted by reduced economic activity. Without it, it continues until real wage growth is sharply negative. By the way, if you're a reader of HN, you are almost certainly in the "1 percent" globally.

away271828 4y ago
>The primary reason the unemployment has remained low is due to so many people primarily baby boomers, leaving the work force. I know quite a few people in the tech sphere who, under other circumstances, might have taken some late career job (or just happily continued in their current role) who are taking their vests, retiring somewhat early, and maybe do a bit of consulting on the side. There are fewer opportunities and a lot of work environments are under a lot of financial stress these days.
- jmclnx 4y ago
  Not to mention all the bureaucracy surrounding Jira, Agile and other items, I may end up on that train too. Years ago, word of mouth directly from the user was good enough. Now, changes have to go through several levels of bureaucracy before it can even be looked at.
  - JKCalhoun 4y ago
    Left the "industry" early for similar reasons. It used to be fun when it was looser, more bottom up. I was spoiled perhaps — but I can tell you the job ain't what it used to be.
    - away271828 4y ago
      A lot of companies grew a lot, there's a lot of economic stress/caution, budgets are tight for things like travel, a lot of scrutiny around goals/performance measurement/financial metrics/etc. While there are certainly pockets of interesting activity, I see larger companies certainly battening down hatches. Was talking to someone just last night who is counting down the days to their next vest then they're out. I have to believe a lot of employee survey results at the moment are a train wreck.
      - JKCalhoun 4y ago
        I wonder though about the younger engineers who are just entering or have only recently entered the field. Do they even know what it used to be like? I have met new engineers though that seem to enjoy the current structure of modern software engineering with all its unit tests, code reviews, lint, etc. Perhaps they would not have enjoyed the more freewheeling era that I thrived on.

ericmay 4y ago

> Anyway, I am starting to believe these "recession is on the way" articles as the top 1% trying to cause one so they can prevent the slow movement from slave wages to almost livable wages. It's safe to discard this theory because it's not possible to have that kind of control through "the media" or otherwise. What's accurate is that articles like this get clicks and that's why they come into existence. This article is just a vehicle for advertising, and for every one you can find you can find an article from the same source that states the opposite or some other tangential theory.

mcdonje 4y ago
You are assuming the person you replied to thinks there's a cabal or conspiracy. Alternatively, the 1% could be using mass media to project their viewpoint simply because most of the mass media is owned by the 1%.
- JKCalhoun 4y ago
  That too suggests a conspiracy though. Since the 1% are unlikely to be the ones writing the actual articles, you're going to have to have co-conspirator reporters, writers, editors, publishers. Being coerced by the 1% would in itself be quite a story, ha ha. Perhaps though you can imagine though a more subtle, undetectable way in which the 1% are able to project their viewpoint via the media that doesn't involve co-conspirators. Like the person you replied to though, I think Occam's razor suggests instead that these articles get clicks.
  - licebmi__at__ 4y ago
    I don’t think that people pleasing their bosses is such a big conspiracy.
    - ericmay 4y ago
      It isn't. It is though when you go from pleasing their bosses to "their 1% oligarch boss says to publish this article that a recession is coming so that workers wages will go down".

dboreham 4y ago

> the top 1% trying to cause one so they can prevent the slow movement from slave wages to almost livable wages Interesting. I've had the same thought for some time but hadn't seen anyone else voice this concern until now.

hammock 4y ago

Unemployment rate lags the economy, not leads. Meanwhile savings rate is dropping and consumer credit is hitting new highs

cma 4y ago
Wouldn't savings rate dropping in a low unemployment environment mean increased demand? I guess if it is just servicing higher interest debt demand could still be going down.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

bitshiftfaced 4y ago

Real median household income has been in decline since 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N