5 ms·

Agriculture reduced the global human economy/resource production doubling time from 100,000s of years to 1000s of years. Industrial revolution dropped it from 1

Agriculture reduced the global human economy/resource production doubling time from 100,000s of years to 1000s of years. Industrial revolution dropped it from 1000s to 10s or even 1s. If AI follows the same path it becomes 0.1 - 0.01 years. Your 401k wouldn't need 40 years to build a comfortable retirement, only 4 weeks.

lotsofpulp 4y ago
Assuming the supply of labor or automation sufficient to provide a “comfortable retirement” also takes 4 weeks to come online.
theRealMe 4y ago
I understand you’re joking, but surely it’s asymptotic to some multiple of human gestational periods.
- dotancohen 4y ago
  Not once the A in AI becomes a (or the) critical creative factor.
- flangola7 4y ago
  This was not a joke. It's a serious concept that's been around for several years.
eternalban 4y ago
I just watched a video that convincingly showed that it is energy and energy alone that determines the production growth of humanity. Until the day AI can "generate" stuff (you know, something out of nothing) it can only at best streamline existing production, which is entirely capped by energy limits. We may drown in oceans of audio, video, novels, poems, films, porn, blue prints, chemical formulas, etc. dreamed up by AI, but to realize these designs, blueprints, formulas, drugs, etc. ("production") we need to actually resource the materials, and have the necessary energy to make it happen. It will not be AI that catapults humanity. It can definitely mutate human society (for +/-) but it will not (and can not) result in any utopian outcomes, alone. But something like cold fusion, if it actually becomes a practical matter, would result in productivity that would dwarf anything that came before (modulo material resource requirements).
- lordnacho 4y ago
  Couldn't the AI invent fusion?
  - eternalban 4y ago
    Has it?
  - astrange 4y ago
    It could imagine fusion really well, but inventing working fusion doesn't appear to rely on "intelligence". "Intelligence" ain't "omnipotence".
  - hammon 4y ago
    [dead]
- gnatolf 4y ago
  Care to give a link to that video?
  - eternalban 4y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34982415 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34982415
pdntspa 4y ago
> Your 401k wouldn't need 40 years to build a comfortable retirement, only 4 weeks. If this is true you can pretty much say goodbye to the concept of money. The inflation this brings about will be legendary

lotsofpulp 4y ago

Assuming the supply of labor or automation sufficient to provide a “comfortable retirement” also takes 4 weeks to come online.

theRealMe 4y ago

I understand you’re joking, but surely it’s asymptotic to some multiple of human gestational periods.

dotancohen 4y ago
Not once the A in AI becomes a (or the) critical creative factor.
flangola7 4y ago
This was not a joke. It's a serious concept that's been around for several years.

eternalban 4y ago

I just watched a video that convincingly showed that it is energy and energy alone that determines the production growth of humanity. Until the day AI can "generate" stuff (you know, something out of nothing) it can only at best streamline existing production, which is entirely capped by energy limits. We may drown in oceans of audio, video, novels, poems, films, porn, blue prints, chemical formulas, etc. dreamed up by AI, but to realize these designs, blueprints, formulas, drugs, etc. ("production") we need to actually resource the materials, and have the necessary energy to make it happen. It will not be AI that catapults humanity. It can definitely mutate human society (for +/-) but it will not (and can not) result in any utopian outcomes, alone. But something like cold fusion, if it actually becomes a practical matter, would result in productivity that would dwarf anything that came before (modulo material resource requirements).

lordnacho 4y ago
Couldn't the AI invent fusion?
- eternalban 4y ago
  Has it?
- astrange 4y ago
  It could imagine fusion really well, but inventing working fusion doesn't appear to rely on "intelligence". "Intelligence" ain't "omnipotence".
- hammon 4y ago
  [dead]
gnatolf 4y ago
Care to give a link to that video?
- eternalban 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34982415 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34982415

pdntspa 4y ago

> Your 401k wouldn't need 40 years to build a comfortable retirement, only 4 weeks. If this is true you can pretty much say goodbye to the concept of money. The inflation this brings about will be legendary