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Yeah, and it makes sense that the luxury market (which I'll define as anyone who could comfortably afford a $40k+ new car) is getting saturated. Even if the to

Yeah, and it makes sense that the luxury market (which I'll define as anyone who could comfortably afford a $40k+ new car) is getting saturated. Even if the top 10% of households buys 4 EVs a piece (ha), we should be reaching saturation in the near future. Anecdotally I see several Teslas a day on the highway just getting to/from work, and I'm in suburban PA, not Silicon Valley. For my part my family has two old Toyotas that I can't justify getting rid of until I either get an unexpected windfall or their engines/transmissions give out, and if one got totaled tomorrow our budget would be sub-30k for a replacement.

wnissen 4y ago
I am more or less in your boat but the average passenger vehicle is now selling for almost $50K. That would be more than twice what I've ever paid for a new vehicle (which is 15 years old, but still!). I'm not sure the EVs are that uncompetitive compared to the current options.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  It doesn't take many expensive cars to really skew the average. The median is a lot lower than $50K.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Even if you exclude luxury brands the average is still $45K. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-...
- bluGill 4y ago
  People who care about costs will prefer a used car with all the luxury features of a few years ago vs the basic new car. People who are willing to spend money on a new car demand luxury features. There are business who buy basic new cars yet (tax law and deprecation makes this a smart move), but otherwise nobody will buy a basic new car: there is always a better deal. In the 1950s a basic car made a lot of sense as cars did not last as long (without major maintenance - engine rebuilding used to be a lot more common)
runnr_az 4y ago
Average US new car price for a vehicle sold at the end of the year was $48,681. I guess everyone is living in luxury now? (That's maybe kinda true) https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sets-record/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sets-reco...
- ThunderSizzle 4y ago
  Living in debt living paycheck to paycheck to payoff those huge liabilities. I doubt that would be thr average price if car financing wasn't expanding to much longer lengths than 3-5 years.
- Retric 4y ago
  New car buyers tend to be relatively affluent, otherwise they would be buying used.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    Not affluent. They have to have a good income as the poor and lower class are priced right out. However most are in the middle class and living at or beyond their means. Those who are affluent and not rich are buying older used cars and keeping them running for many years. You can save several hundred thousand dollars over a lifetime while still driving cars - money they invest. (not to be confused with the poor who don't have that money in the first place and thus can't invest) If you don't have a car at all there is potential for several hundred thousands more saved. However if you live where this is good transit you are spending several hundred thousand on that: not only do you have to account for fares, but also areas with good transit tend to have both higher taxes and higher rent. Still getting rid of a car is a great idea to save money, and if you can get rid of all you are mostly likely better off (just not by as much as you would think compared to the frugal car owner)
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 4y ago
olivermarks 4y ago
We are going to greatly miss pick'n'pull and other salvage yards when they are gone. Countless families keep their older vehicles running by salvaging parts at weekends so they can get to work on Monday and keep a roof over their head.
- cptskippy 4y ago
  Why do you seem them going away? There's a growing aftermarket for EV parts. There and companies making drop in replacement parts for EV systems, modules, and even individual boards.
  - olivermarks 4y ago
    https://carolinapicknpull.com/price-list/ https://carolinapicknpull.com/price-list/ EV aftermarket is expensive, DRM makes parts picking v difficult, plus few people understand EVs and are scared of being electrocuted.
    - NegativeLatency 4y ago
      I see your point, but I'd be much more willing to try to work on an EV myself than a ICE vehicle. So many fewer parts and with the computer diagnostics it seems like replacing a drive motor or something would be a lot simpler than replacing the engine. There are some companies that make aftermarket replacement controllers for motors and stuff, although they are generally performance oriented. I hope in time more 3rd party repair options open up, due to sheer tenacity or competent right to repair legislation.
      - olivermarks 4y ago
        There is no intention to allow people to work on their EVs. Between DRM and impossible complexity the vast majority of cars after around 2008 are almost impossible to fix yourself by design. The next generation of vehicles are likely to drive away themselves if you haven't made payments and even drive themselves to be crushed. https://www.thedrive.com/news/future-fords-could-repossess-themselves-and-drive-away-if-you-miss-payments https://www.thedrive.com/news/future-fords-could-repossess-t...

wnissen 4y ago

I am more or less in your boat but the average passenger vehicle is now selling for almost $50K. That would be more than twice what I've ever paid for a new vehicle (which is 15 years old, but still!). I'm not sure the EVs are that uncompetitive compared to the current options.

bryanlarsen 4y ago
It doesn't take many expensive cars to really skew the average. The median is a lot lower than $50K.
- nradov 4y ago
  Even if you exclude luxury brands the average is still $45K. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-...
bluGill 4y ago
People who care about costs will prefer a used car with all the luxury features of a few years ago vs the basic new car. People who are willing to spend money on a new car demand luxury features. There are business who buy basic new cars yet (tax law and deprecation makes this a smart move), but otherwise nobody will buy a basic new car: there is always a better deal. In the 1950s a basic car made a lot of sense as cars did not last as long (without major maintenance - engine rebuilding used to be a lot more common)

runnr_az 4y ago

Average US new car price for a vehicle sold at the end of the year was $48,681. I guess everyone is living in luxury now? (That's maybe kinda true) https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sets-record/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sets-reco...

ThunderSizzle 4y ago
Living in debt living paycheck to paycheck to payoff those huge liabilities. I doubt that would be thr average price if car financing wasn't expanding to much longer lengths than 3-5 years.
Retric 4y ago
New car buyers tend to be relatively affluent, otherwise they would be buying used.
- bluGill 4y ago
  Not affluent. They have to have a good income as the poor and lower class are priced right out. However most are in the middle class and living at or beyond their means. Those who are affluent and not rich are buying older used cars and keeping them running for many years. You can save several hundred thousand dollars over a lifetime while still driving cars - money they invest. (not to be confused with the poor who don't have that money in the first place and thus can't invest) If you don't have a car at all there is potential for several hundred thousands more saved. However if you live where this is good transit you are spending several hundred thousand on that: not only do you have to account for fares, but also areas with good transit tend to have both higher taxes and higher rent. Still getting rid of a car is a great idea to save money, and if you can get rid of all you are mostly likely better off (just not by as much as you would think compared to the frugal car owner)
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Retric 4y ago

olivermarks 4y ago

We are going to greatly miss pick'n'pull and other salvage yards when they are gone. Countless families keep their older vehicles running by salvaging parts at weekends so they can get to work on Monday and keep a roof over their head.

cptskippy 4y ago
Why do you seem them going away? There's a growing aftermarket for EV parts. There and companies making drop in replacement parts for EV systems, modules, and even individual boards.
- olivermarks 4y ago
  https://carolinapicknpull.com/price-list/ https://carolinapicknpull.com/price-list/ EV aftermarket is expensive, DRM makes parts picking v difficult, plus few people understand EVs and are scared of being electrocuted.
  - NegativeLatency 4y ago
    I see your point, but I'd be much more willing to try to work on an EV myself than a ICE vehicle. So many fewer parts and with the computer diagnostics it seems like replacing a drive motor or something would be a lot simpler than replacing the engine. There are some companies that make aftermarket replacement controllers for motors and stuff, although they are generally performance oriented. I hope in time more 3rd party repair options open up, due to sheer tenacity or competent right to repair legislation.
    - olivermarks 4y ago
      There is no intention to allow people to work on their EVs. Between DRM and impossible complexity the vast majority of cars after around 2008 are almost impossible to fix yourself by design. The next generation of vehicles are likely to drive away themselves if you haven't made payments and even drive themselves to be crushed. https://www.thedrive.com/news/future-fords-could-repossess-themselves-and-drive-away-if-you-miss-payments https://www.thedrive.com/news/future-fords-could-repossess-t...