16 ms·

EV startups from Lucid to Rivian see demand fade, supply chain issues linger

80 points by dev_tty01 4y ago

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
DIVx0 4y ago
I cancelled my Rivian order precisely because they kept on changing my configuration to the point I was still going to pay a huge premium for a vehicle that I didn't intend to order. I am willing to wait but Rivian and the others have lost so much credibility to deliver that I do not even trust a deposit with them. So I will continue to wait until manufacturers can ship these things as ordered.
- htrp 4y ago
  Do you mind providing some more details on what config changes they were making to your order ?
  - DIVx0 4y ago
    Deleting the option to have the max battery pack along with quad motors was what pushed me over the edge. I was still with them when they removed some of the other gizmos like electric bed cover but the battery and motors are what I really wanted. If I wanted a dual motor config I'd just have ordered a Ford, which would probably deliver sooner, for less money, and probably better supported in the long run.
- newZWhoDis 4y ago
  What’s changed besides the electric tonneau cover?
  - DannyBee 4y ago
    Everything around max pack configs (motors, timing, etc) Adventure pack no longer includes kitchen or tent, etc
    - browniefed 4y ago
      Adventure never included the kitchen or tent you had to purchase it, they just are re-working it and or discontinuing it. The main issue is their lack of communication around timelines.
      - garyfirestorm 4y ago
        They have so many issues in their powertrain. I work for a major oem and we chose not to even test the rivian vehicle for competitive benchmarking since the performance was so poor, there was nothing to learn from it.
        edwrenbeck 4y ago
        Are you talking about Rivian? They are using BOSCH motors and Samsung batteries. At least until their new dual motor config comes out with their own motors. I'd say this is neither poor or great since these are mostly industry standard options. Munro has done a very detailed teardown of both the Rivian and the Lightning. The main complaint of the Rivian was that it was overbuilt and they are spending too much money. Otherwise, it's been given very high reviews for quality. I suppose you could argue that the quad motor config is maybe something other OEMs wouldn't take up for many reasons, but it's not a "Poor" choice. It's resulted in one of the most unique vehicles to ever exist, which was probably a very good brand building strategy. The problem with Rivian now is that they haven't been able to pivot to mass market vehicles quickly enough.
        garyfirestorm 4y ago
        the point i am trying to make is about 'vehicle integration' most of the oems don't make their own emotors. they 'engineer' vehicle attributes and provide the suppliers like Bosch with system level targets. this process is generally referred to as target cascading. if i want motor to sound xdB at driver ear, my vehicle needs to provide ydB isolation and then source needs to be at zdB, if this process is not hashed out well, you end up with poor isolation. you also have to consider variability in source and your manufacturing. This is the area where an automaker shines or crumbles, doing this poorly results in poor experience and hence poor reliability/quality. most of major oems think rivian is struggling in this area and just now laid of most of the sme's lol
  - browniefed 4y ago
    Max Pack + Quad is no longer an option for pre-orders and now is Dual Motor + Max pack. The Max pack has likely dropped 1 battery module that it would have had. Power Tonneau is gone but may return. So mostly the "drastic" things that have changed are related to motor/battery unknowns.
- godzillabrennus 4y ago
  Could be worse, you could be GM writing off your loan then selling your investment in Lordstown Motors only to have Foxconn step in to legitimize the business.
- barbazoo 4y ago
  I visited their website yesterday and really liked their two models. Beautiful cars, but I just can't fathom spending >CAD100k on one. And that's before tax where I live. Just so unattainable.
- landemva 4y ago
  Rivian has decent specs and looks nice, but lack of end-user maintenance shops concerns me. Warranties are worthless if the vendor goes bankrupt.
HWR_14 4y ago
Anecdotally, I know people who wanted (and still want) an EV, but the production delays made them buy ICE vehicles so they could have something to drive until they could get them delivered. Which means they are cancelling their pre-orders because they expect their car to last more than a year.
- GreedClarifies 4y ago
  Does Tesla have these types of delays?
  - Lolaccount 4y ago
    They have delayed quality, if that helps.
  - conk 4y ago
    Well it’s been 2 years since 2021 and Tesla still isn’t building cybertrucks. I’d say ya, Tesla has these types of delays as well.
    - silverwasthere 4y ago
      I like the theory that musk is trying to win over the truck buyer segment's hearts and minds via twitter anti woke signals before releasing it to ensure there is an accepting market. If you look at a map of the best selling vehicle by state and overlay who they voted for in the last few elections it's pretty clear who he needs to cozy up to and win over. I'm not thrilled about it, and it solidifies my choice not to buy a tesla, but it makes business sense to my uneducated eye. Personally I like my nissan leaf and would like a nice simple plug in hybrid truck, not an electric brodozer.
      - jdminhbg 4y ago
        This theory seems a lot more convoluted than "it's hard to scale production of a new vehicle and they haven't figured it out yet."
      - 4y ago
tootie 4y ago
What a weird perspective. EV _startups_ are losing their luster, but they don't even mention the fact that total EV sales are rising and it's largely due to legacy players like Ford, Chevy, Kia, Hyundai releasing the first plausible competitors to Tesla. The EV startup market was always considered a long shot. Nobody expected even Tesla to be able to stay competitive once the big players got into the game. It took longer than expected, but it's happening now. They left a big enough opening for Tesla to reach a degree of scale, but I'd bet against anyone else disrupting this market in the next 10 years. Why put your name on a year long waitlist for a Rivian when you can buy a Ford now?
- 0x53 4y ago
  I agree with your comment, except the last part. I cancelled my f150 lightning order because they told me I wasn’t going to get a 2023 and they raised the price by $7500.
- frumper 4y ago
  You can't actually buy a ford now either.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Some Ford dealers actually have Mustang Mach-E vehicles in stock again but most are charging additional mark ups in the $14K range. You'd have to be really foolish or desperate to pay that much when equivalent gas vehicles are so much cheaper.
    - frumper 4y ago
      Yeah, mark ups like that are why I canceled my Mach-e order in 2021. Tesla charged me what I saw on my order, which was refreshing at the time.
      - tootie 4y ago
        One of Tesla's underappreciated advantages is that because they were completely new, they eschewed the dealership model. Every legacy manufacturer is inextricably wedded to the dealers. At least in the US.
DannyBee 4y ago
Rivian has changed my config 4 times and pushed back my order two years. They are changing it again and can’t even give a real ETA. It’s great to keep customers updated but like if you can’t stick to anything you say it’s not really helpful.
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Really hope Lucid succeeds. Their cars are just incredible pieces of engineering and design - at the high end obviously the market is limited, though, so hope they're able to make the mass market transition at some point.
- nradov 4y ago
  Lucid hardware might be good but their software engineering seems to be kind of crap. https://www.thedrive.com/car-reviews/2022-lucid-air-review-price-options-specs-impressions-new-cars-evs https://www.thedrive.com/car-reviews/2022-lucid-air-review-p...
  - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
    Their infotainment system definitely had a ton of bugs, and early versions of the software were glitchy to the point of absurdity. That said, they have been making consistent, steady improvements to the software, such that over the past 6ish months it has gotten much, much better (especially since the 2.x update which was vastly more stable and performant). I rarely hit software issues these days.
    - kposehn 4y ago
      +1 to the improvements. They’ve made a world of progress in the last six months.
  - Aperocky 4y ago
    It's surprising to me why everyone have to reinvent the wheel and build common stuff like this out of the box. Is there really no company that specialize in stuff like this?
    - bombcar 4y ago
      It’s a smallish market (total number of automakers is low) AND the automakers see it (rightly) as differentiating and valuable. So they don’t want to “fund competitors” - unless it is something like CarPlay. It’s kinda sad because it’s a major selling point and everyone would benefit from it not being shit.
steveBK123 4y ago
Lucid is possibly the worst managed automative company. Beautiful cars, targeting the wrong part of the market (luxury sedan), and just not well run. Went to a sales center this summer and was basically told GFYS. 6-12 months wait, we don't know. No test drives, but if you put in a deposit, maybe you can test drive in the fall before config. Yes, we have a floor model but no you cannot sit in it, let alone even touch it. Again, would you like to place a deposit sir? Less than 6 months later, by early December, despite reducing targets, and missing those reduced production targets.. they have immediately available inventory? By EOY 2022 something like 30% of the cars they had ever produced were not yet delivered? LOL. Right now theres a dozen sitting on their website to "buy now", all in different color combos. I'm sure 100s in inventory to replace those listings as they sell. Reports from show rooms all over the country of people seeing the same cars sitting on the lots. Note Tesla's available inventory generally tells you where the car is, and has a long unique URL that implies strongly that the listing is for a single physical vehicle. The Lucid listings are ambiguous enough to mask there being 10s or 100s of units in that config available. Some of the listings are 2022 model year still! Insane.
- njovin 4y ago
  GFYS has trickled down to many non-EV dealers as well, in my experience. I visited a Subaru dealer in a high-population area last year and was told that they had one specific model coming in one specific undesirable color coming in about 4 months and asking if I wanted to reserve because it wouldn't last long. Friends had a similar experience with Toyota - it was impossible to get the exact model and config they wanted (plugin Hybrid) so they settled for a similar model , put a deposit down, and still had to wait 6+ months for delivery.
  - cjrp 4y ago
    I wouldn't say that's GFYS, depending on how the dealership staff handled it. Supply issues are everywhere, but I agree that not letting people even sit in a car is crappy customer service.
    - steveBK123 4y ago
danans 4y ago
Demand for luxury EVs is fading, but it is pretty strong for mid market and cheaper EVs like the Chevy Bolt.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Also, acceleration is no longer a good differentiating feature for luxury cars.
  - danans 4y ago
    Yeah, that's a huge one. Performance (at least in terms of acceleration and plantedness) is no longer a unique selling point of luxury cars.
mikedelago 4y ago
there's 4 things I want more than anything as far as transportation in the US goes 1. affordable, nationwide rail networks 2. affordable local public transportation 3. Expansion into walkable cities 4. range extended EVs, or EVs where it's trivial/cheap to get (either rent or buy) a range extender for long distance trips
- landemva 4y ago
  Nice list. I wonder how the spend can be prioritized. Decades of foreign adventuring is costly and no longer exciting.
- saalweachter 4y ago
  The first is really blocked on the second & third. Taking a train to New York or Chicago is fantastic. If you've never used their transit systems before it may take a bit to get used to them, but you can step off the train and go about your business. When I have Amtrak points to burn, I love taking a "day trip" to Chicago, a thousand miles away. I can arrive at 10am and leave at 9pm, and run out of time before I run out of things to do. If you take the train into a smaller city, you better hope there is a car rental on whatever bus loop they have.
  - jdminhbg 4y ago
    > I love taking a "day trip" to Chicago, a thousand miles away. I can arrive at 10am Out of curiosity, what time do you have to leave to arrive at 10?
    - saalweachter 4y ago
      5pm the day before, returning around 4 the day after.
  - karmelapple 4y ago
    And therefore things for all of, including the parent poster, can do is: 1. Vote in local elections, because zoning is a local elected official kind of thing 2. Get involved in city council, zoning board of appeals, etc 3. Perhaps even run yourself, or at least get together with like minded individuals in your area and organize
bryanlarsen 4y ago
There is a huge demand knee for EV's at price parity with ICE's. VW, Ford & Tesla all plan on being able to sell EV's profitably at price parity in 2025 or earlier. If your startup isn't planning on selling a hatchback for $20k, a small SUV for $30k or a truck for $40k after rebate it's likely not viable.
- NegativeLatency 4y ago
  As someone hanging on to their mid 90’s first car: yes Looking to go all electric and I’ll wait as long as I can to do so for a reasonable price. In the mean time looking at electric cargo bikes.
  - MH15 4y ago
    There's a point in the chart of real ecological outcomes where holding onto an older car is far more "eco-friendly" than buying a Tesla. It's imperative we take this into account now that we're seeing monstrosities like the Hummer EV. The new Hummer weighs over 9000 pounds, twice the weight of a Tesla. Giants like these and other electric trucks/SUVs could undo much of the progress we're seeing here.
    - Arrath 4y ago
      > There's a point in the chart of real ecological outcomes where holding onto an older car is far more "eco-friendly" than buying a Tesla. Cash for Clunkers has long been derided for the same reasons. Sure some real lemons got turned in and destroyed, but so did a lot of perfectly serviceable older vehicles. Used car prices are still elevated thanks to that.
      - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
        I saw that as a way to bolster new car sales solely to prop up the failed Big 3 auto makers that basically went bust during the 08 crash. Cash 4 Clunkers gave both used cars and new cars a price jump and increased sales, which helped the auto makers to coast along some more. I'm sure no lobbying effort went into that at all.
xnx 4y ago
I do wonder if a lot of these EV startups are suffering from "This Is A Feature, Not A Product” syndrome. Rivian and Tesla have made some very good and clever design choices, but nothing a major auto-maker couldn't clone.
- martythemaniak 4y ago
  Tesla is producing/selling at a rate of 2 million cars per year. They are already a major car manufacturer.
  - phkahler 4y ago
    1.3 million in 2022. But yes that's a lot.
    - martythemaniak 4y ago
      They moved 1.3m total in 2022, but in Q4 they were at a rate of 1.9m. 40% y/y growth is a lot, they'll be in the top 10 makers in 2024.
- mardifoufs 4y ago
  Yet people have been saying that about Teslas, and EVs in general for almost a decade now. But they are still way ahead of everyone else (in the west) in terms of sales and production, even with traditional manufacturers shifting hard towards EVs. And I'm including myself here, I'm genuinely surprised that Tesla has managed to survive and even thrive, with insane production growth rates YoY. I genuinely believed it was a hype fueled meme (I still wouldn't touch the stock, though) that would stall the moment they attempt scaling production, but the results are pretty conclusive on that regard.
- megaman821 4y ago
  People have been literally saying this since 2016. I don't know anything about car manufacturing, but current evidence suggests the cloning Tesla is harder than it appears. Give me a year when you expect an American car maker to sell even a quarter of the electric vehicles that Tesla sells that year.
kristjansson 4y ago
This is at least partially related to the change in the rules for the US EV tax credits. The price cap and manufacturing country restrictions mean that many buyers are seeing $7500-10000 added to their net price. Price elasticity isn’t zero, even for luxury buyers
FL410 4y ago
Data point of one, but my R1T is by far the best vehicle I've ever owned. Rooting for them.
- coolspot 4y ago
  What vehicles have you owned?
  - FL410 4y ago
    Hondas, BMWs, Teslas, Jeeps. The truck is my favorite combination of performance, utility and quality. Especially compared to the Tesla, the build quality is exceptional.
    - qwerpy 4y ago
      The Rivians look great, I’d probably get one if I wasn’t concerned about long-term viability of the company and the charging network when going on road trips. For now I’m going to stick with my Y but in a few years if the cybertruck doesn’t pan out for whatever reason and Rivian is looking solid, I’ll get one. Edit: am aware that Tesla is opening up their network. I want to wait and see how that works out practically. Are enough of them going to be upgraded to support 3rd party cars to make road trips feasible?
Patrol8394 4y ago
EV are still too expensive and if one does not have a charger at home, it does not save that much money over ICE, plus it comes with the inconvenience of wasting time waiting for charging. It is that simple.
- mingus88 4y ago
  Funny, I start every morning with full range and very rarely dip below 50% SOC by the end of the day. I have been using the portable charger that came with my EV, sharing the 30A outlet with my dryer. The only times I've "wasted time waiting for charging" is when I'm on a road trip, and that time was spent in a nearby store doing shopping I've needed to do anyway. My municipal electrical rate is $0.11/kWh and I've saved a small fortune compared to my old gas vehicle.
  - landemva 4y ago
    > I've saved a small fortune compared to my old gas vehicle. Fuel taxes pay for the roads, so who is funding your fuel tax avoidance?
    - peytoncasper 4y ago
      In GA there is an annual EV tax applied that is meant to replace the fuel tax when you re-register your vehicle.
    - nozzlegear 4y ago
      In Iowa I have to pay an extra EV fee with my yearly vehicle registration/tags. I'm honestly not sure what that fee goes to in Iowa, but I imagine such a thing could be adopted to pay for an EV's share of the fuel tax. Edit: looks like it does in fact act as the fuel tax for EVs. [PDF] https://iowadot.gov/mvd/vehicleregistration/Electric-Vehicle-Fee-Mailer.pdf https://iowadot.gov/mvd/vehicleregistration/Electric-Vehicle...
    - brewdad 4y ago
      Fuel taxes come nowhere near paying for the roads. Only a lack of imagination prevents us from replacing any lost tax revenues. My town puts a $9/mo fee on my water bill to pay for road improvements. Everyone in town pays in regardless of how much or what they drive. The money is also being spent on sidewalks and bike routes, so non-drivers benefit too.
bdcravens 4y ago
For most, the EVs coming out of Chevy, Ford, VW, Kia/Hyundai, etc are more than enough, especially if they can go down to a dealership today and drive home with one. Even more so when most dealerships have financing options that can reach customers that the boutiques can't.
nozzlegear 4y ago
We were seriously considering a Rivian truck to replace our 09 Ford Escape, but it seemed like every time we checked into it the wait time and price estimate kept climbing. Eventually we just decided we'd rather have a no-frills EV from an autogiant than a luxury truck from a startup that seems to be having a lot of issues meeting demand and quality control (based on anecdotes and pictures I'd been seeing while subbed to the Rivian subreddit at the time). We ended up purchasing a 23 Chevy Bolt EUV that happened to be sitting on a lot in Omaha while we were passing through. Snagged it for MSRP and I've put almost 5000 miles on it since November. Couldn't be happier with the purchase.
dadro 4y ago
I was/am interested in a Rivian R1T but the fast charging network is probably the biggest variable holding me back. Rich Rebuilds did a great video where he experienced first-hand what a PITA it is to travel long stretches in one (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eosf7CeSGyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eosf7CeSGyA). My hope is in the next 2-5 years Ford will become a top 3 in the EV space solely to help move EV charging infrastructure forward.
- FL410 4y ago
  Tesla is about to open their supercharger network to everyone. Like, starting 10 minutes from now.
ChrisMarshallNY 4y ago
I'm surprised Nikola is even being treated as a valid company, with all the shenanigans they pulled. Fisker seems to be aiming its sights a bit lower. I remember walking past their showroom in Bellevue, and oohing and ahhing at the supercars, therein.
AndrewKemendo 4y ago
US infrastructure does not support electric vehicles, full stop. There are structural headwinds by default that prevent uptake because the logistics fail at a certain point when not subsidized. This was all totally planned for by the oil companies pushing for more investment in exurbs and highway construction
- LanceJones 4y ago
  Full stop. You seem pretty certain. How do you explain what's happening in the US (particularly in California)? Are you saying infrastructure currently does not support or won't in the future?
  - AndrewKemendo 4y ago
    I would hypothesize that if you counted up the cumulative stored joules of existing and accessible petro-energy stocks and compare that to the equivalent with electrical generaton, then evaluate what it would take to replicate the logistics networks that provide electricity *above and beyond* current electrical generator capacity, it wouldn't even be close to capable of being a 1:1 replacement without a century of no or negative margin investments that people have no incentive for. It's like crypto - people got excited with Musk's sexy vision of the future and so it caused a mania around it. A private company cannot possibly fund this scale of infrastructure development because it requires decades of losing money. The challenge is that it's in conflict with 100 years of oil-based infrastructure development that still has the same incentives.
- jandrese 4y ago
  Do you mean the US doesn't have enough generating capacity to support EVs? Charging infrastructure grows with demand, it's the market at work. https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map
  - AndrewKemendo 4y ago
    "The market" doesn't want EVs and EV infrastructure because the majority of equity holders financially benefit more on a margin basis from the petro-dollar based system that ubiquitous EVs would threaten. However because a subset of rich (and debt insensitive) individuals want a sexy new thing that has marginal ecological benefits at small scale, we had a boom period where excess capital (and unsustainable debt) was being spent to try and push EVs into the market. When cleaning ladies and burnouts are using EVs because it's as trivial as using a petro-car then I'll grant that the market is working, but as it stands 'The Market" is only given token nod to electric and it's a fashionable thing to do in the US, it's not sustainable the way it is happening.
aaomidi 4y ago
The prices on these are just not acceptable tbh. I would be open to them if they would provide a better warranty than the competition
Animats 4y ago
The trouble with these startups is that they focused on the overpriced "luxury" niche. That worked for Tesla in the early days. Now, though, electric cars are common, and price matters. Tesla finally had to cut prices. If your pickup trucks start around US$100,000, you have a problem. The company that really gets this is BYD, in China. They started out making low-end vehicles, and now they make decent mid-range EVs. They passed Tesla in output in mid-2022. So far, they haven't sold into the US, but they do sell in Europe.
revicon 4y ago
I really want to get an electric Ford Transit van but the range is just so tiny its not workable for me. Is there some technical reason EVs don't support consumers adding big battery extension packs to increase range?
- thatguy0900 4y ago
  I wonder if fire hazard is a reason. Tesla already reccomend fire departments just let the cars burn out in a safe space, which can take a long time, I can't imagine how bad a van full of batteries would burn
Oxidation 4y ago
I'm curious if (and if so, how) these startups think they're going to survive when the supertankers of the large auto companies complete their miles-long turn and start production at the scale they do ICEs now. The scrappy first-mover advantage will only go so far. Or are they just angling to be bought up by the big boys as an exit?
jti107 4y ago
sell something like the ID4 for $30-35K and you will have tons of buyers. will be interesting to see how many ID4's they sell because they cost $40K and they are made in Tennessee so they qualify for the EV tax credit which puts them in that price range.
vladgur 4y ago
I recently went through a car shopping experience and i spreadsheet-ed the crap out of both identifying a vehicle(based on few criteria important to me, such as fuel economy, front leg room and front hip room[1], safety and reliability) and comparing potential candidates on the used car marketplace. Cars that mostly met my criteria were Tesla Model Y Long Range and Toyota Camry hybrid. I then proceeded to calculate the cost in fuel($4.40/gallon near me) and in energy($0.35.kwh off-peak thanks PG&E) and the cost to drive Tesla for 1000 miles were within a dollar of the cost for Camry Hybrid to do the same thing. But Tesla would cost $20k more and a trip SF-LA would mean 2 stops to recharge, whereas Camry Hybrid can do it on a single tank of gas. So i bought a lightly used 2020 Camry hybrid after expanding my search to about a 500 mile radius using AutoTempest.com which aggregates multiple car marketplaces. [1] My current car at the time was Volvo XC70 with extremely comfortable seats that Volvo is known for and i wanted to replicate as much of that comfort as I could.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  Wow, with electricity that expensive solar must pay back really quick.
filereaper 4y ago
Bit of an aside, but is there anyone making the absolute barebones EV? Like the Toyota Land-Cruiser of EVs? No self-driving, just four wheels, motor and battery pack with whatever is needed to pass safety and standard regulations.
anuraaga 4y ago
[flagged]

80 points by dev_tty01 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

I cancelled my Rivian order precisely because they kept on changing my configuration to the point I was still going to pay a huge premium for a vehicle that I didn't intend to order. I am willing to wait but Rivian and the others have lost so much credibility to deliver that I do not even trust a deposit with them. So I will continue to wait until manufacturers can ship these things as ordered.

htrp 4y ago
Do you mind providing some more details on what config changes they were making to your order ?
- DIVx0 4y ago
  Deleting the option to have the max battery pack along with quad motors was what pushed me over the edge. I was still with them when they removed some of the other gizmos like electric bed cover but the battery and motors are what I really wanted. If I wanted a dual motor config I'd just have ordered a Ford, which would probably deliver sooner, for less money, and probably better supported in the long run.
newZWhoDis 4y ago
What’s changed besides the electric tonneau cover?
- DannyBee 4y ago
  Everything around max pack configs (motors, timing, etc) Adventure pack no longer includes kitchen or tent, etc
  - browniefed 4y ago
    Adventure never included the kitchen or tent you had to purchase it, they just are re-working it and or discontinuing it. The main issue is their lack of communication around timelines.
    - garyfirestorm 4y ago
      They have so many issues in their powertrain. I work for a major oem and we chose not to even test the rivian vehicle for competitive benchmarking since the performance was so poor, there was nothing to learn from it.
      - edwrenbeck 4y ago
        Are you talking about Rivian? They are using BOSCH motors and Samsung batteries. At least until their new dual motor config comes out with their own motors. I'd say this is neither poor or great since these are mostly industry standard options. Munro has done a very detailed teardown of both the Rivian and the Lightning. The main complaint of the Rivian was that it was overbuilt and they are spending too much money. Otherwise, it's been given very high reviews for quality. I suppose you could argue that the quad motor config is maybe something other OEMs wouldn't take up for many reasons, but it's not a "Poor" choice. It's resulted in one of the most unique vehicles to ever exist, which was probably a very good brand building strategy. The problem with Rivian now is that they haven't been able to pivot to mass market vehicles quickly enough.
        garyfirestorm 4y ago
        the point i am trying to make is about 'vehicle integration' most of the oems don't make their own emotors. they 'engineer' vehicle attributes and provide the suppliers like Bosch with system level targets. this process is generally referred to as target cascading. if i want motor to sound xdB at driver ear, my vehicle needs to provide ydB isolation and then source needs to be at zdB, if this process is not hashed out well, you end up with poor isolation. you also have to consider variability in source and your manufacturing. This is the area where an automaker shines or crumbles, doing this poorly results in poor experience and hence poor reliability/quality. most of major oems think rivian is struggling in this area and just now laid of most of the sme's lol
- browniefed 4y ago
  Max Pack + Quad is no longer an option for pre-orders and now is Dual Motor + Max pack. The Max pack has likely dropped 1 battery module that it would have had. Power Tonneau is gone but may return. So mostly the "drastic" things that have changed are related to motor/battery unknowns.
godzillabrennus 4y ago
Could be worse, you could be GM writing off your loan then selling your investment in Lordstown Motors only to have Foxconn step in to legitimize the business.
barbazoo 4y ago
I visited their website yesterday and really liked their two models. Beautiful cars, but I just can't fathom spending >CAD100k on one. And that's before tax where I live. Just so unattainable.
landemva 4y ago
Rivian has decent specs and looks nice, but lack of end-user maintenance shops concerns me. Warranties are worthless if the vendor goes bankrupt.

HWR_14 4y ago

Anecdotally, I know people who wanted (and still want) an EV, but the production delays made them buy ICE vehicles so they could have something to drive until they could get them delivered. Which means they are cancelling their pre-orders because they expect their car to last more than a year.

GreedClarifies 4y ago
Does Tesla have these types of delays?
- Lolaccount 4y ago
  They have delayed quality, if that helps.
- conk 4y ago
  Well it’s been 2 years since 2021 and Tesla still isn’t building cybertrucks. I’d say ya, Tesla has these types of delays as well.
  - silverwasthere 4y ago
    I like the theory that musk is trying to win over the truck buyer segment's hearts and minds via twitter anti woke signals before releasing it to ensure there is an accepting market. If you look at a map of the best selling vehicle by state and overlay who they voted for in the last few elections it's pretty clear who he needs to cozy up to and win over. I'm not thrilled about it, and it solidifies my choice not to buy a tesla, but it makes business sense to my uneducated eye. Personally I like my nissan leaf and would like a nice simple plug in hybrid truck, not an electric brodozer.
    - jdminhbg 4y ago
      This theory seems a lot more convoluted than "it's hard to scale production of a new vehicle and they haven't figured it out yet."
    - 4y ago

tootie 4y ago

What a weird perspective. EV _startups_ are losing their luster, but they don't even mention the fact that total EV sales are rising and it's largely due to legacy players like Ford, Chevy, Kia, Hyundai releasing the first plausible competitors to Tesla. The EV startup market was always considered a long shot. Nobody expected even Tesla to be able to stay competitive once the big players got into the game. It took longer than expected, but it's happening now. They left a big enough opening for Tesla to reach a degree of scale, but I'd bet against anyone else disrupting this market in the next 10 years. Why put your name on a year long waitlist for a Rivian when you can buy a Ford now?

0x53 4y ago
I agree with your comment, except the last part. I cancelled my f150 lightning order because they told me I wasn’t going to get a 2023 and they raised the price by $7500.
frumper 4y ago
You can't actually buy a ford now either.
- nradov 4y ago
  Some Ford dealers actually have Mustang Mach-E vehicles in stock again but most are charging additional mark ups in the $14K range. You'd have to be really foolish or desperate to pay that much when equivalent gas vehicles are so much cheaper.
  - frumper 4y ago
    Yeah, mark ups like that are why I canceled my Mach-e order in 2021. Tesla charged me what I saw on my order, which was refreshing at the time.
    - tootie 4y ago
      One of Tesla's underappreciated advantages is that because they were completely new, they eschewed the dealership model. Every legacy manufacturer is inextricably wedded to the dealers. At least in the US.

DannyBee 4y ago

Rivian has changed my config 4 times and pushed back my order two years. They are changing it again and can’t even give a real ETA. It’s great to keep customers updated but like if you can’t stick to anything you say it’s not really helpful.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Really hope Lucid succeeds. Their cars are just incredible pieces of engineering and design - at the high end obviously the market is limited, though, so hope they're able to make the mass market transition at some point.

nradov 4y ago
Lucid hardware might be good but their software engineering seems to be kind of crap. https://www.thedrive.com/car-reviews/2022-lucid-air-review-price-options-specs-impressions-new-cars-evs https://www.thedrive.com/car-reviews/2022-lucid-air-review-p...
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  Their infotainment system definitely had a ton of bugs, and early versions of the software were glitchy to the point of absurdity. That said, they have been making consistent, steady improvements to the software, such that over the past 6ish months it has gotten much, much better (especially since the 2.x update which was vastly more stable and performant). I rarely hit software issues these days.
  - kposehn 4y ago
    +1 to the improvements. They’ve made a world of progress in the last six months.
- Aperocky 4y ago
  It's surprising to me why everyone have to reinvent the wheel and build common stuff like this out of the box. Is there really no company that specialize in stuff like this?
  - bombcar 4y ago
    It’s a smallish market (total number of automakers is low) AND the automakers see it (rightly) as differentiating and valuable. So they don’t want to “fund competitors” - unless it is something like CarPlay. It’s kinda sad because it’s a major selling point and everyone would benefit from it not being shit.

steveBK123 4y ago

Lucid is possibly the worst managed automative company. Beautiful cars, targeting the wrong part of the market (luxury sedan), and just not well run. Went to a sales center this summer and was basically told GFYS. 6-12 months wait, we don't know. No test drives, but if you put in a deposit, maybe you can test drive in the fall before config. Yes, we have a floor model but no you cannot sit in it, let alone even touch it. Again, would you like to place a deposit sir? Less than 6 months later, by early December, despite reducing targets, and missing those reduced production targets.. they have immediately available inventory? By EOY 2022 something like 30% of the cars they had ever produced were not yet delivered? LOL. Right now theres a dozen sitting on their website to "buy now", all in different color combos. I'm sure 100s in inventory to replace those listings as they sell. Reports from show rooms all over the country of people seeing the same cars sitting on the lots. Note Tesla's available inventory generally tells you where the car is, and has a long unique URL that implies strongly that the listing is for a single physical vehicle. The Lucid listings are ambiguous enough to mask there being 10s or 100s of units in that config available. Some of the listings are 2022 model year still! Insane.

njovin 4y ago
GFYS has trickled down to many non-EV dealers as well, in my experience. I visited a Subaru dealer in a high-population area last year and was told that they had one specific model coming in one specific undesirable color coming in about 4 months and asking if I wanted to reserve because it wouldn't last long. Friends had a similar experience with Toyota - it was impossible to get the exact model and config they wanted (plugin Hybrid) so they settled for a similar model , put a deposit down, and still had to wait 6+ months for delivery.
- cjrp 4y ago
  I wouldn't say that's GFYS, depending on how the dealership staff handled it. Supply issues are everywhere, but I agree that not letting people even sit in a car is crappy customer service.
  - steveBK123 4y ago

danans 4y ago

Demand for luxury EVs is fading, but it is pretty strong for mid market and cheaper EVs like the Chevy Bolt.

mywittyname 4y ago
Also, acceleration is no longer a good differentiating feature for luxury cars.
- danans 4y ago
  Yeah, that's a huge one. Performance (at least in terms of acceleration and plantedness) is no longer a unique selling point of luxury cars.

mikedelago 4y ago

there's 4 things I want more than anything as far as transportation in the US goes 1. affordable, nationwide rail networks 2. affordable local public transportation 3. Expansion into walkable cities 4. range extended EVs, or EVs where it's trivial/cheap to get (either rent or buy) a range extender for long distance trips

landemva 4y ago
Nice list. I wonder how the spend can be prioritized. Decades of foreign adventuring is costly and no longer exciting.
saalweachter 4y ago
The first is really blocked on the second & third. Taking a train to New York or Chicago is fantastic. If you've never used their transit systems before it may take a bit to get used to them, but you can step off the train and go about your business. When I have Amtrak points to burn, I love taking a "day trip" to Chicago, a thousand miles away. I can arrive at 10am and leave at 9pm, and run out of time before I run out of things to do. If you take the train into a smaller city, you better hope there is a car rental on whatever bus loop they have.
- jdminhbg 4y ago
  > I love taking a "day trip" to Chicago, a thousand miles away. I can arrive at 10am Out of curiosity, what time do you have to leave to arrive at 10?
  - saalweachter 4y ago
    5pm the day before, returning around 4 the day after.
- karmelapple 4y ago
  And therefore things for all of, including the parent poster, can do is: 1. Vote in local elections, because zoning is a local elected official kind of thing 2. Get involved in city council, zoning board of appeals, etc 3. Perhaps even run yourself, or at least get together with like minded individuals in your area and organize

bryanlarsen 4y ago

There is a huge demand knee for EV's at price parity with ICE's. VW, Ford & Tesla all plan on being able to sell EV's profitably at price parity in 2025 or earlier. If your startup isn't planning on selling a hatchback for $20k, a small SUV for $30k or a truck for $40k after rebate it's likely not viable.

NegativeLatency 4y ago
As someone hanging on to their mid 90’s first car: yes Looking to go all electric and I’ll wait as long as I can to do so for a reasonable price. In the mean time looking at electric cargo bikes.
- MH15 4y ago
  There's a point in the chart of real ecological outcomes where holding onto an older car is far more "eco-friendly" than buying a Tesla. It's imperative we take this into account now that we're seeing monstrosities like the Hummer EV. The new Hummer weighs over 9000 pounds, twice the weight of a Tesla. Giants like these and other electric trucks/SUVs could undo much of the progress we're seeing here.
  - Arrath 4y ago
    > There's a point in the chart of real ecological outcomes where holding onto an older car is far more "eco-friendly" than buying a Tesla. Cash for Clunkers has long been derided for the same reasons. Sure some real lemons got turned in and destroyed, but so did a lot of perfectly serviceable older vehicles. Used car prices are still elevated thanks to that.
    - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
      I saw that as a way to bolster new car sales solely to prop up the failed Big 3 auto makers that basically went bust during the 08 crash. Cash 4 Clunkers gave both used cars and new cars a price jump and increased sales, which helped the auto makers to coast along some more. I'm sure no lobbying effort went into that at all.

xnx 4y ago

I do wonder if a lot of these EV startups are suffering from "This Is A Feature, Not A Product” syndrome. Rivian and Tesla have made some very good and clever design choices, but nothing a major auto-maker couldn't clone.

martythemaniak 4y ago
Tesla is producing/selling at a rate of 2 million cars per year. They are already a major car manufacturer.
- phkahler 4y ago
  1.3 million in 2022. But yes that's a lot.
  - martythemaniak 4y ago
    They moved 1.3m total in 2022, but in Q4 they were at a rate of 1.9m. 40% y/y growth is a lot, they'll be in the top 10 makers in 2024.
mardifoufs 4y ago
Yet people have been saying that about Teslas, and EVs in general for almost a decade now. But they are still way ahead of everyone else (in the west) in terms of sales and production, even with traditional manufacturers shifting hard towards EVs. And I'm including myself here, I'm genuinely surprised that Tesla has managed to survive and even thrive, with insane production growth rates YoY. I genuinely believed it was a hype fueled meme (I still wouldn't touch the stock, though) that would stall the moment they attempt scaling production, but the results are pretty conclusive on that regard.
megaman821 4y ago
People have been literally saying this since 2016. I don't know anything about car manufacturing, but current evidence suggests the cloning Tesla is harder than it appears. Give me a year when you expect an American car maker to sell even a quarter of the electric vehicles that Tesla sells that year.

kristjansson 4y ago

This is at least partially related to the change in the rules for the US EV tax credits. The price cap and manufacturing country restrictions mean that many buyers are seeing $7500-10000 added to their net price. Price elasticity isn’t zero, even for luxury buyers

FL410 4y ago

Data point of one, but my R1T is by far the best vehicle I've ever owned. Rooting for them.

coolspot 4y ago
What vehicles have you owned?
- FL410 4y ago
  Hondas, BMWs, Teslas, Jeeps. The truck is my favorite combination of performance, utility and quality. Especially compared to the Tesla, the build quality is exceptional.
  - qwerpy 4y ago
    The Rivians look great, I’d probably get one if I wasn’t concerned about long-term viability of the company and the charging network when going on road trips. For now I’m going to stick with my Y but in a few years if the cybertruck doesn’t pan out for whatever reason and Rivian is looking solid, I’ll get one. Edit: am aware that Tesla is opening up their network. I want to wait and see how that works out practically. Are enough of them going to be upgraded to support 3rd party cars to make road trips feasible?

Patrol8394 4y ago

EV are still too expensive and if one does not have a charger at home, it does not save that much money over ICE, plus it comes with the inconvenience of wasting time waiting for charging. It is that simple.

mingus88 4y ago
Funny, I start every morning with full range and very rarely dip below 50% SOC by the end of the day. I have been using the portable charger that came with my EV, sharing the 30A outlet with my dryer. The only times I've "wasted time waiting for charging" is when I'm on a road trip, and that time was spent in a nearby store doing shopping I've needed to do anyway. My municipal electrical rate is $0.11/kWh and I've saved a small fortune compared to my old gas vehicle.
- landemva 4y ago
  > I've saved a small fortune compared to my old gas vehicle. Fuel taxes pay for the roads, so who is funding your fuel tax avoidance?
  - peytoncasper 4y ago
    In GA there is an annual EV tax applied that is meant to replace the fuel tax when you re-register your vehicle.
  - nozzlegear 4y ago
    In Iowa I have to pay an extra EV fee with my yearly vehicle registration/tags. I'm honestly not sure what that fee goes to in Iowa, but I imagine such a thing could be adopted to pay for an EV's share of the fuel tax. Edit: looks like it does in fact act as the fuel tax for EVs. [PDF] https://iowadot.gov/mvd/vehicleregistration/Electric-Vehicle-Fee-Mailer.pdf https://iowadot.gov/mvd/vehicleregistration/Electric-Vehicle...
  - brewdad 4y ago
    Fuel taxes come nowhere near paying for the roads. Only a lack of imagination prevents us from replacing any lost tax revenues. My town puts a $9/mo fee on my water bill to pay for road improvements. Everyone in town pays in regardless of how much or what they drive. The money is also being spent on sidewalks and bike routes, so non-drivers benefit too.

bdcravens 4y ago

For most, the EVs coming out of Chevy, Ford, VW, Kia/Hyundai, etc are more than enough, especially if they can go down to a dealership today and drive home with one. Even more so when most dealerships have financing options that can reach customers that the boutiques can't.

nozzlegear 4y ago

We were seriously considering a Rivian truck to replace our 09 Ford Escape, but it seemed like every time we checked into it the wait time and price estimate kept climbing. Eventually we just decided we'd rather have a no-frills EV from an autogiant than a luxury truck from a startup that seems to be having a lot of issues meeting demand and quality control (based on anecdotes and pictures I'd been seeing while subbed to the Rivian subreddit at the time). We ended up purchasing a 23 Chevy Bolt EUV that happened to be sitting on a lot in Omaha while we were passing through. Snagged it for MSRP and I've put almost 5000 miles on it since November. Couldn't be happier with the purchase.

dadro 4y ago

I was/am interested in a Rivian R1T but the fast charging network is probably the biggest variable holding me back. Rich Rebuilds did a great video where he experienced first-hand what a PITA it is to travel long stretches in one (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eosf7CeSGyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eosf7CeSGyA). My hope is in the next 2-5 years Ford will become a top 3 in the EV space solely to help move EV charging infrastructure forward.

FL410 4y ago
Tesla is about to open their supercharger network to everyone. Like, starting 10 minutes from now.

ChrisMarshallNY 4y ago

I'm surprised Nikola is even being treated as a valid company, with all the shenanigans they pulled. Fisker seems to be aiming its sights a bit lower. I remember walking past their showroom in Bellevue, and oohing and ahhing at the supercars, therein.

AndrewKemendo 4y ago

US infrastructure does not support electric vehicles, full stop. There are structural headwinds by default that prevent uptake because the logistics fail at a certain point when not subsidized. This was all totally planned for by the oil companies pushing for more investment in exurbs and highway construction

LanceJones 4y ago
Full stop. You seem pretty certain. How do you explain what's happening in the US (particularly in California)? Are you saying infrastructure currently does not support or won't in the future?
- AndrewKemendo 4y ago
  I would hypothesize that if you counted up the cumulative stored joules of existing and accessible petro-energy stocks and compare that to the equivalent with electrical generaton, then evaluate what it would take to replicate the logistics networks that provide electricity *above and beyond* current electrical generator capacity, it wouldn't even be close to capable of being a 1:1 replacement without a century of no or negative margin investments that people have no incentive for. It's like crypto - people got excited with Musk's sexy vision of the future and so it caused a mania around it. A private company cannot possibly fund this scale of infrastructure development because it requires decades of losing money. The challenge is that it's in conflict with 100 years of oil-based infrastructure development that still has the same incentives.
jandrese 4y ago
Do you mean the US doesn't have enough generating capacity to support EVs? Charging infrastructure grows with demand, it's the market at work. https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map
- AndrewKemendo 4y ago
  "The market" doesn't want EVs and EV infrastructure because the majority of equity holders financially benefit more on a margin basis from the petro-dollar based system that ubiquitous EVs would threaten. However because a subset of rich (and debt insensitive) individuals want a sexy new thing that has marginal ecological benefits at small scale, we had a boom period where excess capital (and unsustainable debt) was being spent to try and push EVs into the market. When cleaning ladies and burnouts are using EVs because it's as trivial as using a petro-car then I'll grant that the market is working, but as it stands 'The Market" is only given token nod to electric and it's a fashionable thing to do in the US, it's not sustainable the way it is happening.

aaomidi 4y ago

The prices on these are just not acceptable tbh. I would be open to them if they would provide a better warranty than the competition

Animats 4y ago

The trouble with these startups is that they focused on the overpriced "luxury" niche. That worked for Tesla in the early days. Now, though, electric cars are common, and price matters. Tesla finally had to cut prices. If your pickup trucks start around US$100,000, you have a problem. The company that really gets this is BYD, in China. They started out making low-end vehicles, and now they make decent mid-range EVs. They passed Tesla in output in mid-2022. So far, they haven't sold into the US, but they do sell in Europe.

revicon 4y ago

I really want to get an electric Ford Transit van but the range is just so tiny its not workable for me. Is there some technical reason EVs don't support consumers adding big battery extension packs to increase range?

thatguy0900 4y ago
I wonder if fire hazard is a reason. Tesla already reccomend fire departments just let the cars burn out in a safe space, which can take a long time, I can't imagine how bad a van full of batteries would burn

Oxidation 4y ago

I'm curious if (and if so, how) these startups think they're going to survive when the supertankers of the large auto companies complete their miles-long turn and start production at the scale they do ICEs now. The scrappy first-mover advantage will only go so far. Or are they just angling to be bought up by the big boys as an exit?

jti107 4y ago

sell something like the ID4 for $30-35K and you will have tons of buyers. will be interesting to see how many ID4's they sell because they cost $40K and they are made in Tennessee so they qualify for the EV tax credit which puts them in that price range.

vladgur 4y ago

I recently went through a car shopping experience and i spreadsheet-ed the crap out of both identifying a vehicle(based on few criteria important to me, such as fuel economy, front leg room and front hip room[1], safety and reliability) and comparing potential candidates on the used car marketplace. Cars that mostly met my criteria were Tesla Model Y Long Range and Toyota Camry hybrid. I then proceeded to calculate the cost in fuel($4.40/gallon near me) and in energy($0.35.kwh off-peak thanks PG&E) and the cost to drive Tesla for 1000 miles were within a dollar of the cost for Camry Hybrid to do the same thing. But Tesla would cost $20k more and a trip SF-LA would mean 2 stops to recharge, whereas Camry Hybrid can do it on a single tank of gas. So i bought a lightly used 2020 Camry hybrid after expanding my search to about a 500 mile radius using AutoTempest.com which aggregates multiple car marketplaces. [1] My current car at the time was Volvo XC70 with extremely comfortable seats that Volvo is known for and i wanted to replicate as much of that comfort as I could.

matthewdgreen 4y ago
Wow, with electricity that expensive solar must pay back really quick.

filereaper 4y ago

Bit of an aside, but is there anyone making the absolute barebones EV? Like the Toyota Land-Cruiser of EVs? No self-driving, just four wheels, motor and battery pack with whatever is needed to pass safety and standard regulations.

anuraaga 4y ago

[flagged]