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The financials may not look good right now, but the vehicles are extremely good. They’re already way out in front of the EV truck segment, and the big automaker

The financials may not look good right now, but the vehicles are extremely good. They’re already way out in front of the EV truck segment, and the big automakers have a huge gap to make up to reach the same level of quality. I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to turn this around and become profitable.

giobox 4y ago
In isolation, sure, but this space is going to get so fiercely competitive so quickly (on the order of years, but that is fast for the car industry!) and ASPs for electric trucks will come down. Rivian are still generally only selling ~six-figure trucks today (the priciest configs ship sooner of course) and not making money at it. How good the vehicle is becomes irrelevant if you can't make it at a price people want to pay. I still think Rivian can get there, but there is so far to go. They only delivered ~20k cars in 2022.
- bink 4y ago
  I'm not sure it's fair to say the priciest configs ship sooner. They're really only delivering two trucks right now, the quad motor, large pack versions of the R1T and R1S. The dual motor configs are cheaper but were only introduced recently. The max pack versions have been for sale for awhile and none of have been delivered, but they're also the most expensive. They did raise prices around 1 year ago but I've seen no evidence that they've prioritized orders for those who purchased after the price increase or who equipped more expensive options (options like tents and racks are shipping separately).
  - giobox 4y ago
    If you can't make money on the highest margin configs (and they can't yet), you certainly don't prioritise selling the lower margin models. This is a fairly common practice for a new model line from an auto-maker and Rivian are no different. The reason I point price out at all, competition is already available for less in places (F150 Lightning), and more electric trucks are due to launch shortly - not great if you can't turn a profit on six figure models let alone considering lower priced offerings to compete.
basch 4y ago
You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new companies have to build that from scratch. Producing a couple of something great is an achievement, it is not a lead. It is much much easier to catch up on the product side than it is to innovate. And because the actual product is only a portion of total value, the companies that are “way ahead” with the most futuristic cars are really the ones playing catch up.
- cassac 4y ago
  I thought that until Tesla wrecked everyone.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - majormajor 4y ago
    Tesla was famously close to failing. So on one hand, post-Tesla, there's more public readiness for EVs. On the other hand, there's a huge established EV-native incumbent PLUS far more legacy brand competition in the market. So it's still a really risky playbook.
    - cassac 4y ago
      I agree it was risky, and close to failing, but that’s what usually happens with great things. I don’t think any other car company that makes electric cars would say they aren’t playing catch up with Tesla. They seem to perpetually be a few years behind. I was just making my comment based on the parent comment saying it couldn’t be done. It’s done all the time in every segment. Never underestimate the bean counters from ruining the incumbents.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
hedora 4y ago
I really like their cars, but they’re not practical replacements for a full size pickup truck (as the F-150 Lightning is). Anyway, they’re competing more with range rover and jeep than trucks, which is fine (and also a mostly-unaddressed segment).
- PragmaticPulp 4y ago
  Likely a smart move. The F-150 Lightning is also a very good truck, and it gets to capitalize on the F-150 brand and customer base. They addressed a gap in the market (smaller electric truck) rather than trying to go head-to-head with the biggest full-size truck brand in the industry. Smart move.
  - mbgerring 4y ago
    The Rivian is a full-size truck and performs as good or better than the Lightning for similar tasks.
    - alexb_ 4y ago
      What's the price comparison?
      - lh7777 4y ago
        Ford has been rapidly raising their prices (so it’s hard to keep track) but last I saw starting prices were $73k for the Rivian and $56k for the Lightning.
        mbgerring 4y ago
        If you equip the $56k F150 to the level of the base model Rivian they’re about the same price.
    - majormajor 4y ago
      That bed length disadvantage is pretty significant if you're coming to it from the "truck user" market vs the "weekend camper" or "soccer mom" market. I was interested in a Rivian until I saw one in person and saw how short that bed was. It wasn't the first spec I'd looked at on paper, but jumped out in-person. In that size I'd probably go cheap with a Maverick hybrid for now until there are more full-EV competitors.
echelon 4y ago
100% anecdotal: I'm in Georgia. If I had to guesstimate, I see about ~20 Rivians a month now in both urban and suburban settings. They seem to be catching on.
hajile 4y ago
If you want a truck for looks, EV is nice enough. If you want a truck to haul stuff, EV is terrible. Put a trailer on your EV and they have basically no range at all. If you need a truck to haul stuff reasonable distances, EV isn't for you (at least not right now). If you want to save the world, then an electric car gets much better ranges with much smaller batteries and a fraction of the power usage. This leaves EV trucks in a "why bother?" category.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Most hauling around is local, within a city or region. EV range is reasonable and actually has many advantages over ICE cars. Operating cost being a huge one. Torque being the other. And the reality is the waste majority of people simple don't drive long distances with trailers. Study after study shows how that simply not why most people buy trucks.
  - zamnos 4y ago
    BMW's entire marketing department gets that you don't sell cars based on what the driver's actually going to use it for, but based on an emotional pull on who the driver wants to be. Trucks are no different. Studies after study can show how much people don't pull trailers, but that's not why the F150 is the US' best selling truck.
- mbgerring 4y ago
  This isn’t true. I hauled a 5 ton car trailer from San Francisco to the Black Rock Desert in Nevada last year and it was a breeze. 160 miles (the range with the trailer) is not “no range at all”, and the charging network, at least here, is dense enough to deal with it.
  - mbgerring 4y ago
    Also, trailers with batteries are coming. This is going to be a solved problem in almost no time.
guiltygods 4y ago
Unless they can crank out the volume like Tesla they will be relegated to a niche market. Only big guys like Ford, Volkswagon, GM can make it now.
7e 4y ago
Quality isn’t that great. Some service centers are booked out four or five months. Owner satisfaction remains high despite that, however.
7e 4y ago
The all electric Lightning outsold the R1T in December. Rivian is only guiding to 50K vehicles this year, many of which are Amazon vans. At the December run rate Ford will sell more than Rician in 2023. You can’t even order a Lightning online anymore-sold out for the year. Rivian doesn’t have the battery supply to grow fast.
- rasz 4y ago
  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/ford-halts-f-150-lightning-production.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/ford-halts-f-150-lightning-p...

giobox 4y ago

In isolation, sure, but this space is going to get so fiercely competitive so quickly (on the order of years, but that is fast for the car industry!) and ASPs for electric trucks will come down. Rivian are still generally only selling ~six-figure trucks today (the priciest configs ship sooner of course) and not making money at it. How good the vehicle is becomes irrelevant if you can't make it at a price people want to pay. I still think Rivian can get there, but there is so far to go. They only delivered ~20k cars in 2022.

bink 4y ago
I'm not sure it's fair to say the priciest configs ship sooner. They're really only delivering two trucks right now, the quad motor, large pack versions of the R1T and R1S. The dual motor configs are cheaper but were only introduced recently. The max pack versions have been for sale for awhile and none of have been delivered, but they're also the most expensive. They did raise prices around 1 year ago but I've seen no evidence that they've prioritized orders for those who purchased after the price increase or who equipped more expensive options (options like tents and racks are shipping separately).
- giobox 4y ago
  If you can't make money on the highest margin configs (and they can't yet), you certainly don't prioritise selling the lower margin models. This is a fairly common practice for a new model line from an auto-maker and Rivian are no different. The reason I point price out at all, competition is already available for less in places (F150 Lightning), and more electric trucks are due to launch shortly - not great if you can't turn a profit on six figure models let alone considering lower priced offerings to compete.

basch 4y ago

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new companies have to build that from scratch. Producing a couple of something great is an achievement, it is not a lead. It is much much easier to catch up on the product side than it is to innovate. And because the actual product is only a portion of total value, the companies that are “way ahead” with the most futuristic cars are really the ones playing catch up.

cassac 4y ago
I thought that until Tesla wrecked everyone.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- majormajor 4y ago
  Tesla was famously close to failing. So on one hand, post-Tesla, there's more public readiness for EVs. On the other hand, there's a huge established EV-native incumbent PLUS far more legacy brand competition in the market. So it's still a really risky playbook.
  - cassac 4y ago
    I agree it was risky, and close to failing, but that’s what usually happens with great things. I don’t think any other car company that makes electric cars would say they aren’t playing catch up with Tesla. They seem to perpetually be a few years behind. I was just making my comment based on the parent comment saying it couldn’t be done. It’s done all the time in every segment. Never underestimate the bean counters from ruining the incumbents.
  - panick21_ 4y ago

hedora 4y ago

I really like their cars, but they’re not practical replacements for a full size pickup truck (as the F-150 Lightning is). Anyway, they’re competing more with range rover and jeep than trucks, which is fine (and also a mostly-unaddressed segment).

PragmaticPulp 4y ago
Likely a smart move. The F-150 Lightning is also a very good truck, and it gets to capitalize on the F-150 brand and customer base. They addressed a gap in the market (smaller electric truck) rather than trying to go head-to-head with the biggest full-size truck brand in the industry. Smart move.
- mbgerring 4y ago
  The Rivian is a full-size truck and performs as good or better than the Lightning for similar tasks.
  - alexb_ 4y ago
    What's the price comparison?
    - lh7777 4y ago
      Ford has been rapidly raising their prices (so it’s hard to keep track) but last I saw starting prices were $73k for the Rivian and $56k for the Lightning.
      - mbgerring 4y ago
        If you equip the $56k F150 to the level of the base model Rivian they’re about the same price.
  - majormajor 4y ago
    That bed length disadvantage is pretty significant if you're coming to it from the "truck user" market vs the "weekend camper" or "soccer mom" market. I was interested in a Rivian until I saw one in person and saw how short that bed was. It wasn't the first spec I'd looked at on paper, but jumped out in-person. In that size I'd probably go cheap with a Maverick hybrid for now until there are more full-EV competitors.

echelon 4y ago

100% anecdotal: I'm in Georgia. If I had to guesstimate, I see about ~20 Rivians a month now in both urban and suburban settings. They seem to be catching on.

hajile 4y ago

If you want a truck for looks, EV is nice enough. If you want a truck to haul stuff, EV is terrible. Put a trailer on your EV and they have basically no range at all. If you need a truck to haul stuff reasonable distances, EV isn't for you (at least not right now). If you want to save the world, then an electric car gets much better ranges with much smaller batteries and a fraction of the power usage. This leaves EV trucks in a "why bother?" category.

panick21_ 4y ago
Most hauling around is local, within a city or region. EV range is reasonable and actually has many advantages over ICE cars. Operating cost being a huge one. Torque being the other. And the reality is the waste majority of people simple don't drive long distances with trailers. Study after study shows how that simply not why most people buy trucks.
- zamnos 4y ago
  BMW's entire marketing department gets that you don't sell cars based on what the driver's actually going to use it for, but based on an emotional pull on who the driver wants to be. Trucks are no different. Studies after study can show how much people don't pull trailers, but that's not why the F150 is the US' best selling truck.
mbgerring 4y ago
This isn’t true. I hauled a 5 ton car trailer from San Francisco to the Black Rock Desert in Nevada last year and it was a breeze. 160 miles (the range with the trailer) is not “no range at all”, and the charging network, at least here, is dense enough to deal with it.
- mbgerring 4y ago
  Also, trailers with batteries are coming. This is going to be a solved problem in almost no time.

guiltygods 4y ago

Unless they can crank out the volume like Tesla they will be relegated to a niche market. Only big guys like Ford, Volkswagon, GM can make it now.

7e 4y ago

Quality isn’t that great. Some service centers are booked out four or five months. Owner satisfaction remains high despite that, however.

7e 4y ago

The all electric Lightning outsold the R1T in December. Rivian is only guiding to 50K vehicles this year, many of which are Amazon vans. At the December run rate Ford will sell more than Rician in 2023. You can’t even order a Lightning online anymore-sold out for the year. Rivian doesn’t have the battery supply to grow fast.

rasz 4y ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/ford-halts-f-150-lightning-production.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/ford-halts-f-150-lightning-p...