4 ms·

If all the other origin theories has "very low" as confidence score, then a lab leak is still the most likely origin with a "low" confidence score. It would be

by belorn 4y ago

If all the other origin theories has "very low" as confidence score, then a lab leak is still the most likely origin with a "low" confidence score. It would be nice to see the confidence score as a numerical number in order to understand how much lead this theory has to the second most likely origin theory.

nradov 4y ago
There is way to actually quantify such estimates. Any numbers would just be made up. A qualitative confidence rating like "low" really is the best way to convey intelligence information to policy makers.
boopmaster 4y ago
This. Low confidence still significant in that it could have been “low confidence transmission from wet market game”, but that’s not the direction this landed on. It’s likely a lab leak, says the report, but there’s too many gaps to support higher certainty.
- frank_nitti 4y ago
  Exactly - and how many were mocked, ridiculed, cancelled for even floating the idea of the lab leak; it was labeled as a BS conspiracy theory. Many, even some in this thread, are eager to minimize this story if they participated in ridiculing the fringe voices who kept questioning the official narrative. Better to have this quickly fade into oblivion lest they be outed as having placed their blind faith in false prophets. But Pepperidge farm remembers
  - autoexec 4y ago
    > it was labeled as a BS conspiracy theory. At the time it was a BS conspiracy theory. There was some evidence for it, and some evidence against it and it happened that the evidence we had at the time was stronger for the non-lab leak theories. That's what changed right now. We have new evidence that puts the lab leak theory above the others. Back when Trump was demanding that "China pay" and people were beating up random Asians who were just walking down the street, that wasn't true. Just because we today have the evidence to support the lab leak theory, that doesn't justify Trump's claims or the "blind faith" of his followers who rejected the available evidence to support what they wanted to be true.
    - brippalcharrid 4y ago
      > Trump was demanding that "China pay" and people were beating up random Asians who were just walking down the street Unfortunately, random Asian people getting brutalized when they're going about their daily business has been a long-standing problem in a number of cities. Is there any evidence to suggest that the people perpetrating these crimes were even aware of Trump's words, let alone motivated by them, rather than this just fitting the usual pattern of criminality combined with a generalized ethnic resentment?
      - autoexec 4y ago
        > Unfortunately, random Asian people getting brutalized when they're going about their daily business has been a long-standing problem in a number of cities. It increased after the pandemic (https://abcnews.go.com/US/hate-crimes-asians-rose-76-2020-amid-pandemic/story?id=80746198 https://abcnews.go.com/US/hate-crimes-asians-rose-76-2020-am... and https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hate-crimes-against-chinese-people-soar-in-uk-during-covid-19-crisis-11979388 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hate-crimes-against-c...). It's hard to get data on people's motivations for crimes, but we can very clearly see drastic shifts in trends and this was trending higher than the baseline "generalized ethnic resentment" you'd expect to see normally.
        dangwhy 4y ago
        https://www.justice.gov/crs/highlights/2020-hate-crimes-statistics https://www.justice.gov/crs/highlights/2020-hate-crimes-stat... increases anti black - 50% anti white - 30% anti asian - 75%
    - earlyam 4y ago
      Problem was you weren't even allowed to speculate about this and consider that the possibility warranted more investigation without being written off as a "Trumper." I've seen huge family fights over this very issue and not one person involved was a Trump supporter or a conspiracy theorist but then the names get thrown around because somebody didn't toe somebody else's ideological line.
  - chasd00 4y ago
    I hope this goes to show how dangerous social media censorship is. Social media has completely ruined all their credit as arbiters of truth. I never trusted the group think in the first place and feel fortunate they all so completely and quickly fell on their face. I pray no one trusts their judgment ever again.
MilnerRoute 4y ago
Four U.S. agencies say "market origins" - as does the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Two more agencies -- including the CIA -- are undecided. And then there's the "low confidence" Energy Department opinion, and one from the FBI. So it ultimately depends on how you weight the 75% of groups that don't think there's evidence that it leaked from a lab.
bee_rider 4y ago
Do we need to make a decision on this matter at the moment? If the choices are between low certainly and very low, I’d say we just don’t have enough information to say anything interesting.

by belorn 4y ago

nradov 4y ago

There is way to actually quantify such estimates. Any numbers would just be made up. A qualitative confidence rating like "low" really is the best way to convey intelligence information to policy makers.

boopmaster 4y ago

This. Low confidence still significant in that it could have been “low confidence transmission from wet market game”, but that’s not the direction this landed on. It’s likely a lab leak, says the report, but there’s too many gaps to support higher certainty.

frank_nitti 4y ago
Exactly - and how many were mocked, ridiculed, cancelled for even floating the idea of the lab leak; it was labeled as a BS conspiracy theory. Many, even some in this thread, are eager to minimize this story if they participated in ridiculing the fringe voices who kept questioning the official narrative. Better to have this quickly fade into oblivion lest they be outed as having placed their blind faith in false prophets. But Pepperidge farm remembers
- autoexec 4y ago
  > it was labeled as a BS conspiracy theory. At the time it was a BS conspiracy theory. There was some evidence for it, and some evidence against it and it happened that the evidence we had at the time was stronger for the non-lab leak theories. That's what changed right now. We have new evidence that puts the lab leak theory above the others. Back when Trump was demanding that "China pay" and people were beating up random Asians who were just walking down the street, that wasn't true. Just because we today have the evidence to support the lab leak theory, that doesn't justify Trump's claims or the "blind faith" of his followers who rejected the available evidence to support what they wanted to be true.
  - brippalcharrid 4y ago
    > Trump was demanding that "China pay" and people were beating up random Asians who were just walking down the street Unfortunately, random Asian people getting brutalized when they're going about their daily business has been a long-standing problem in a number of cities. Is there any evidence to suggest that the people perpetrating these crimes were even aware of Trump's words, let alone motivated by them, rather than this just fitting the usual pattern of criminality combined with a generalized ethnic resentment?
    - autoexec 4y ago
      > Unfortunately, random Asian people getting brutalized when they're going about their daily business has been a long-standing problem in a number of cities. It increased after the pandemic (https://abcnews.go.com/US/hate-crimes-asians-rose-76-2020-amid-pandemic/story?id=80746198 https://abcnews.go.com/US/hate-crimes-asians-rose-76-2020-am... and https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hate-crimes-against-chinese-people-soar-in-uk-during-covid-19-crisis-11979388 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hate-crimes-against-c...). It's hard to get data on people's motivations for crimes, but we can very clearly see drastic shifts in trends and this was trending higher than the baseline "generalized ethnic resentment" you'd expect to see normally.
      - dangwhy 4y ago
        https://www.justice.gov/crs/highlights/2020-hate-crimes-statistics https://www.justice.gov/crs/highlights/2020-hate-crimes-stat... increases anti black - 50% anti white - 30% anti asian - 75%
  - earlyam 4y ago
    Problem was you weren't even allowed to speculate about this and consider that the possibility warranted more investigation without being written off as a "Trumper." I've seen huge family fights over this very issue and not one person involved was a Trump supporter or a conspiracy theorist but then the names get thrown around because somebody didn't toe somebody else's ideological line.
- chasd00 4y ago
  I hope this goes to show how dangerous social media censorship is. Social media has completely ruined all their credit as arbiters of truth. I never trusted the group think in the first place and feel fortunate they all so completely and quickly fell on their face. I pray no one trusts their judgment ever again.

MilnerRoute 4y ago

Four U.S. agencies say "market origins" - as does the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Two more agencies -- including the CIA -- are undecided. And then there's the "low confidence" Energy Department opinion, and one from the FBI. So it ultimately depends on how you weight the 75% of groups that don't think there's evidence that it leaked from a lab.

bee_rider 4y ago

Do we need to make a decision on this matter at the moment? If the choices are between low certainly and very low, I’d say we just don’t have enough information to say anything interesting.