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Not unplausible at all. Has happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_labor

Not unplausible at all. Has happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

ttul 4y ago
And this is precisely why BSL4 labs exist. And accidents also happen at BSL4 labs. But in the west, at least we have reasonably transparent and trustworthy governments, with some notion of accountability for enforcing rules.
- tjpnz 4y ago
  Some accounts I've read suggest the Wuhan lab was operated under conditions more akin to BSL1. Think your High School biology lab or your dentist.
  - ttul 4y ago
    My source of information is the hundreds of hours of This Week in Virology episodes I have listened to since March 2020, so with that in mind as my bias: Reputable western scientists who have worked with Wuhan virologists professionally have a lot of respect for the Chinese scientists and the Wuhan lab generally. But the fact that many virologists have professional friends at the Wuhan lab does not rule out that the lab was being poorly managed or that an error might have been swept under the rug by the CCP. My personal opinion synthesizing all that I have read and heard on this topic for three years is that the lab leak is plausible because China is an autocracy and does not have the rule of law. It’s in the CCP’s interests and within their capabilities to hide a lab leak quite successfully.
    - notahacker 4y ago
      > It’s in the CCP’s interests and within their capabilities to hide a lab leak quite successfully. tbh the general impression given by China's known attempts to cover anything up tend to give the opposite impression, precisely because of their default to autocracy. This is a government party that generally covers up stuff by banning it from being talked about, regards "she regrets making that comment and wants to stay at her home and not play tennis or talk to the media any more" as a reasonable coverup, and made such a clumsy attempt to silence the doctor first raising the alarm COVID symptoms that be became a hero inside China and the officials responsible got their wrists slapped. Allowing lab staff to communicate with the outside world and release papers on COVID origins considered plausible by uninvolved overseas virologists would be an uncharacteristic way for the Chinese government to act if they suspected there was something to be uncovered...
- rleigh 4y ago
  Forget the government. Do we have transparent and trustworthy lab staff? After working in a BSL3 lab, I've seen some fairly poor working practices including someone infecting themselves, presumably due to sloppy working practices. There is a reason why lab leaks are common, if not vastly less consequential than the lab leak under discussion. It's because people are people, and they make mistakes, whether that's accidental or deliberately breaking the rules. It does make one question whether we can work on dangerous pathogens safely. I'd have to say, after direct experience of work on multiple diseases of varying types, that for many of them I have serious doubts. When it comes to Gain of Function, I think it should be banned worldwide. We aren't capable of working to the required level of stringency to guarantee safety. To provide a concrete example, look at the German researcher who infected herself with Ebola. In a BSL4 facility. Not even involving GoF research, just the regular virus. Even top researchers slip up. This one made the news due to the severity, but how many are quietly buried, or not even reported within the organisation at all for fear of the consequences. It happens, and I've seen it first-hand.

Not unplausible at all. Has happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

ttul 4y ago

And this is precisely why BSL4 labs exist. And accidents also happen at BSL4 labs. But in the west, at least we have reasonably transparent and trustworthy governments, with some notion of accountability for enforcing rules.

tjpnz 4y ago
Some accounts I've read suggest the Wuhan lab was operated under conditions more akin to BSL1. Think your High School biology lab or your dentist.
- ttul 4y ago
  My source of information is the hundreds of hours of This Week in Virology episodes I have listened to since March 2020, so with that in mind as my bias: Reputable western scientists who have worked with Wuhan virologists professionally have a lot of respect for the Chinese scientists and the Wuhan lab generally. But the fact that many virologists have professional friends at the Wuhan lab does not rule out that the lab was being poorly managed or that an error might have been swept under the rug by the CCP. My personal opinion synthesizing all that I have read and heard on this topic for three years is that the lab leak is plausible because China is an autocracy and does not have the rule of law. It’s in the CCP’s interests and within their capabilities to hide a lab leak quite successfully.
  - notahacker 4y ago
    > It’s in the CCP’s interests and within their capabilities to hide a lab leak quite successfully. tbh the general impression given by China's known attempts to cover anything up tend to give the opposite impression, precisely because of their default to autocracy. This is a government party that generally covers up stuff by banning it from being talked about, regards "she regrets making that comment and wants to stay at her home and not play tennis or talk to the media any more" as a reasonable coverup, and made such a clumsy attempt to silence the doctor first raising the alarm COVID symptoms that be became a hero inside China and the officials responsible got their wrists slapped. Allowing lab staff to communicate with the outside world and release papers on COVID origins considered plausible by uninvolved overseas virologists would be an uncharacteristic way for the Chinese government to act if they suspected there was something to be uncovered...
rleigh 4y ago
Forget the government. Do we have transparent and trustworthy lab staff? After working in a BSL3 lab, I've seen some fairly poor working practices including someone infecting themselves, presumably due to sloppy working practices. There is a reason why lab leaks are common, if not vastly less consequential than the lab leak under discussion. It's because people are people, and they make mistakes, whether that's accidental or deliberately breaking the rules. It does make one question whether we can work on dangerous pathogens safely. I'd have to say, after direct experience of work on multiple diseases of varying types, that for many of them I have serious doubts. When it comes to Gain of Function, I think it should be banned worldwide. We aren't capable of working to the required level of stringency to guarantee safety. To provide a concrete example, look at the German researcher who infected herself with Ebola. In a BSL4 facility. Not even involving GoF research, just the regular virus. Even top researchers slip up. This one made the news due to the severity, but how many are quietly buried, or not even reported within the organisation at all for fear of the consequences. It happens, and I've seen it first-hand.