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The book, "shall the religious inherit the world" is relevant. I'd be interested what happens when general birthrate declines and a religious group, that massi
by langsoul-com 4y ago
The book, "shall the religious inherit the world" is relevant.
I'd be interested what happens when general birthrate declines and a religious group, that massively encourages tons of children, take larger voting percentages.
- eastbound 4y agoI don’t understand: Are you suggesting that it’s what France is currently experimenting, or did it not fall into your radar that France is currently experiencing this? If not, I’d be interested if you look at birthrate by religion in France (and please add stats of bullying at school if you find them) and see whether it fits your expected model.
- pfdietz 4y agoThe assumption that religion is something that people stick with is dubious, though. In the absence of coercion people will tend to abandon religion. Look at what's happening to Christianity in the US.
- rubidium 4y agoHighly recommend you study history a bit more. If you truly think religion only “sticks” in the presence of coercion… well there’s a lot of history that would be hard to understand.
- makeitdouble 4y ago“Coercion” might be a strong word, but there’s many form of “very strong incentives” applied in most religions. Not being included in the group and face critically harsher survival conditions by not participating in the religion is a form of that for instance.
- AdrianB1 4y agoI thought the same, but real life experience shows that in my country (Romania) there is an increase of religion with age, especially for women; in other words, most women start being religious when they age and these days most of the religious traditions are maintained and transmitted by old women. I know many women that were secular in their 20-30, become religious at 50 and are regular churchgoers at 70. My mother used to be a secular feminist engineer 40 years ago, she is none of these today. As a country we were over 50% secular 30 years ago, the last census tells over 90% declared to be religious (census is wrong, but how wrong?).
- nwatson 4y agoWeren't churches a huge factor in deposing Ceausescu and an end to the Soviet influence, as well as the support of populace in hard times before the regime's fall? I'd imagine that would put religion in some favorable light in Romania in particular. https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/politics/church-and-revolution-in-ceausescus-romania/ https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/politics/chur... Edit: capitalization
- AdrianB1 4y agoNo, top priests were actually collaborationists. The anti-Ceausescu coup d'etat was done by a hard-left, atheist group (public face being Ion Iliescu).
- lenkite 4y agoThe classic adage: "If you are not a liberal when you are young, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative when you are old, you have no brain" :)
- mistrial9 4y agoRomania is an interesting case from a demographic point of view. Many, many factors at work in that very old part of the world.
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- mamonster 4y agoYou will get to see this within the next 50-60 years in Israel. AFAIK the expectation is that Haredi+Israeli Arabs will be 50% of the population by like 2070.
- zwirbl 4y agoWith so many orthodox jews there will also be barely any workforce left
- barry-cotter 4y agoOrthodox ≠ Haredi
- zwirbl 4y agoRight, Haredi are an ultra orthodox subset of Orthodox Judaism, but they are often wrongly equated like I did. Too late to edit my comment now though
- lordnacho 4y agoDo they not work? How is that possible with such large families?
- 0xcafefood 4y agoWelfare. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-government-wants-more-ultra-orthodox-men-work-faces-pushback-2021-07-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-government... https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2018-12-07/ty-article/.premium/haredi-poverty-the-same-threat-in-both-new-york-and-israel/0000017f-f553-d5bd-a17f-f77b8d6f0000 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2018-12-07/ty-article/.p...
- nwatson 4y agoThere will be plenty of anti-semitic pro-Israel-for-the-purpose-of-bringing-on-the-apocalypse USA pseudo-evangelicals to support them. (I'm a USA evangelical.)
- woodruffw 4y agoThere are a handful of modern religious and fundamentalist groups that sociologists study for this purpose: Mormons, ultra-orthodox Jews, evangelicals, etc. The interesting thing about these groups is that they exhibit “carrying limits”: they get to particular community sizes and begin to experience attrition through secularization.
- barry-cotter 4y agoThis does not accord with the Israeli experience. The Haredim have grown enough as a proportion that they shifted the Israeli median voter substantially to the right.
- woodruffw 4y agoI didn’t say attrition overwhelmed the overall growth pattern. Most evidence suggests that it’s a proportion that increases with overall religious population, with compounding or confounding. factors (e.g. increasing or decreasing participation in a broader secular society). Haredim “get away” with minimizing participation in many ways, which makes their attrition rates lower than comparable religious groups. But that doesn’t last forever; compare the secularization of Jews in Austro-Hungary in the late 19th century.
- ciphol 4y agoModernization drew a lot of people away from traditional religion. But Hasidim and the Amish etc are "post modern". They have developed various cultural features to "immunize" themselves against the temptations of modernity. There is no reason for this to start failing at any particular point, except perhaps when they become too much of an imposition on the rest of society, which pushes back on them.
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- swarnie 4y agoI understand this is an America-centric forum but does religion play a major role in politics in the rest of the western world? I'm counting back though prime ministers and i can't recall one who made religion a major part of their platform in my lifetime.
- whatusername 4y agoScott Morrison (as a Pentecostal) had religion as a minor part of his platform at least. (I know you probably weren't looking at Australian PM's - but he stands out more so than any of the UK/CA/NZ examples that come to mind. I might be biased though)
- dmurray 4y agoI don't see American presidents making religion "a major part of their platform" either. They get some photo ops in church just like British leaders, and they side with their voters on things like abortion, which breaks down roughly along religious lines without being explicitly so. But a major policy decision directly targeting religion? The closest I can think of in the US is Trump banning immigration from majority-Muslim countries under the pretext of links to terror. As for the rest of the Western world, you might think of Angela Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen, who explicitly represent the Christian Democratic Union.
- b800h 4y agoUS political debates are being driven by religion all the time - abortion for example. That's a much bigger deal in the US. That said I'd argue the culture war is quasi-religious, and it's being fought equally across the Anglosphere and beyond.
- rayiner 4y agoAnd what, if not religion, is driving abortion law in Germany, which has a 12-week limit and restrictions such as waiting periods which were illegal in the US under Roe? It seems to me like the reason Germany doesn’t have a religiously charged debate on abortion is that no major party is pushing for abortion to 24 weeks or even later like in America.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoEven in highly religious Islamic countries, education - especially among women - seems to trump religious indoctrination when it comes to producing children.
- foobiekr 4y agoIt would be interesting to understand how much of that effect is actually education and how much of it is the explicit need to delay reproduction for _any_ socially structured reason.
- usaar333 4y agoInterestingly, France happens to have among the highest fertility rates in Europe today. Doesn't seem to be more religious though.
- mkoubaa 4y agoBecause only adults vote, you have to factor in the rate of religious retention for these communities. If 60% of the offspring in a religious community are areligious, the opposite effect will occur. And this belief/concern presupposes that in democratic societies the political power is held by voters, which I feel is highly reductive even for the most effective democracies