3 ms·

I'm sceptical of the narrative here, that Russia is planning something in Moldova. Putin couldn't even hold Kherson; how could he possibly reinforce Transnistri

I'm sceptical of the narrative here, that Russia is planning something in Moldova. Putin couldn't even hold Kherson; how could he possibly reinforce Transnistria or start an offensive from there? Yes, he has made a lot of terrible decisions, but even for him this would be unusually idiotic.

chasil 4y ago
Russia's primary goal is to prevent an invasion by way of Europe. The past invasions have been both painful and costly, and they must not be repeated. This goal is shared by the whole world, because Russia will not endure another siege of Stalingrad/St. Petersburg without bringing armageddon, nor can they be expected to do so. I believe that, if the West delivers sufficient guarantees to Russia's territorial integrity and lifts sanctions, peace could be attained. The guarantees would have to be very real.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  This is logic of 19th century. Who is going to invade nuclear power? (assuming that those 6000 nukes are maintained and works)
  - chasil 4y ago
    If I were to have a time machine, and I traveled back to 1943 and wiped a million citizens in your country, do you think that this would establish a level of subconscious memory? The Russian preference of buffer states has very real causes. Were this a few hundred years ago, this conflict would have resulted in legions bound for Moscow. We can no longer afford this.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      They have biggest state in the world. If they want a buffer, they can create it within their own borders with complete fortifications from Kola down to Sochi. And call it Russian Wall. Or they can leave behind Urals and anchor their defenses there.
      - chasil 4y ago
        Moscow is in the West of the country and is vulnerable. The major population centers are all in the West. Another European hoard, in an onslaught attack must be stopped, at any cost. This is the reasonable judgment of Russia. The United States does have profound influence to ensure this, which we should exercise.
    - nradov 4y ago
      Who is "we"? The US can afford the continued disintegration of the Russian empire. Sure, there are some risks. But if we pull it off successfully then the rewards will be immense.
      - chasil 4y ago
        No, the U.S. cannot afford continued disintegration of the Russian state. Violence on an order that is unthinkable would ensue, in that event.
        nradov 4y ago
        As long as the violence is mostly contained within Russia's current borders then that's an acceptable outcome.
        chasil 4y ago
        Realistically, this is not an option, and it should be obvious. Ukrainian invasion does not look possible, and what other nation would dare? But the losses of Russia in the great European war we so very vast, that this cannot be asked again. For Ukrainians, this is also true. I wish there was an answer.
- sidibe 4y ago
  It's wild that people outside of Russia still believe there was some strategic goal for Russia to defend itself here rather than personal goals for Putin. No one was going to invade Russia.
  - chasil 4y ago
    Do you see this list? This list is not small. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia Let’s look at the most recent practical examples on this list. > War of Dagestan (1999), a repulsed Chechen invasion of Dagestan. Both Chechnya and Dagestan are internal areas in Russia so this is more of a civil war than anything else. And anything before that is before Russia got nukes. So I really don’t think anyone is gonna invade Russia now days.
      - chasil 4y ago
        Nobody ever said that all the socialist states in the USSR were willing participants.
    - yellowapple 4y ago
      You can come up with similarly-long lists for plenty of countries that are not invading their neighbors.
- nradov 4y ago
  Another way to obtain peace, at least for a few decades, is to increase the sanctions and provide even more weapons to Ukraine. Bleed the Russian empire to death. Even with their nuclear weapons, if the people are improved and the young men are dead then Russia ceases to be relevant. It will become just a bigger version of North Korea.
  - yogthos 4y ago
    because that's working out real well so far https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/wo... https://news.sky.com/story/russias-economy-has-weathered-the-wests-sanctions-but-how-12818034 https://news.sky.com/story/russias-economy-has-weathered-the... https://www.newsweek.com/russias-economy-forecast-outperform-us-within-two-years-1777788 https://www.newsweek.com/russias-economy-forecast-outperform... https://www.politico.eu/article/west-munich-security-conference-doesnt-know-victory-in-ukraine/ https://www.politico.eu/article/west-munich-security-confere... https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com... https://archive.ph/4kbWG https://archive.ph/4kbWG https://archive.ph/HUyik https://archive.ph/HUyik https://archive.ph/Icahm https://archive.ph/Icahm
- tim333 4y ago
  There was zero chance that the generally peaceful and lightly armed EU was going to invade Russia with it's thousands of tanks and nuclear missiles. That argument is just bs Russia trots out to justify invading their neighbours.

chasil 4y ago

Russia's primary goal is to prevent an invasion by way of Europe. The past invasions have been both painful and costly, and they must not be repeated. This goal is shared by the whole world, because Russia will not endure another siege of Stalingrad/St. Petersburg without bringing armageddon, nor can they be expected to do so. I believe that, if the West delivers sufficient guarantees to Russia's territorial integrity and lifts sanctions, peace could be attained. The guarantees would have to be very real.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
This is logic of 19th century. Who is going to invade nuclear power? (assuming that those 6000 nukes are maintained and works)
- chasil 4y ago
  If I were to have a time machine, and I traveled back to 1943 and wiped a million citizens in your country, do you think that this would establish a level of subconscious memory? The Russian preference of buffer states has very real causes. Were this a few hundred years ago, this conflict would have resulted in legions bound for Moscow. We can no longer afford this.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    They have biggest state in the world. If they want a buffer, they can create it within their own borders with complete fortifications from Kola down to Sochi. And call it Russian Wall. Or they can leave behind Urals and anchor their defenses there.
    - chasil 4y ago
      Moscow is in the West of the country and is vulnerable. The major population centers are all in the West. Another European hoard, in an onslaught attack must be stopped, at any cost. This is the reasonable judgment of Russia. The United States does have profound influence to ensure this, which we should exercise.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Who is "we"? The US can afford the continued disintegration of the Russian empire. Sure, there are some risks. But if we pull it off successfully then the rewards will be immense.
    - chasil 4y ago
      No, the U.S. cannot afford continued disintegration of the Russian state. Violence on an order that is unthinkable would ensue, in that event.
      - nradov 4y ago
        As long as the violence is mostly contained within Russia's current borders then that's an acceptable outcome.
        chasil 4y ago
        Realistically, this is not an option, and it should be obvious. Ukrainian invasion does not look possible, and what other nation would dare? But the losses of Russia in the great European war we so very vast, that this cannot be asked again. For Ukrainians, this is also true. I wish there was an answer.
sidibe 4y ago
It's wild that people outside of Russia still believe there was some strategic goal for Russia to defend itself here rather than personal goals for Putin. No one was going to invade Russia.
- chasil 4y ago
  Do you see this list? This list is not small. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia Let’s look at the most recent practical examples on this list. > War of Dagestan (1999), a repulsed Chechen invasion of Dagestan. Both Chechnya and Dagestan are internal areas in Russia so this is more of a civil war than anything else. And anything before that is before Russia got nukes. So I really don’t think anyone is gonna invade Russia now days.
    - chasil 4y ago
      Nobody ever said that all the socialist states in the USSR were willing participants.
  - yellowapple 4y ago
    You can come up with similarly-long lists for plenty of countries that are not invading their neighbors.
nradov 4y ago
Another way to obtain peace, at least for a few decades, is to increase the sanctions and provide even more weapons to Ukraine. Bleed the Russian empire to death. Even with their nuclear weapons, if the people are improved and the young men are dead then Russia ceases to be relevant. It will become just a bigger version of North Korea.
- yogthos 4y ago
  because that's working out real well so far https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/wo... https://news.sky.com/story/russias-economy-has-weathered-the-wests-sanctions-but-how-12818034 https://news.sky.com/story/russias-economy-has-weathered-the... https://www.newsweek.com/russias-economy-forecast-outperform-us-within-two-years-1777788 https://www.newsweek.com/russias-economy-forecast-outperform... https://www.politico.eu/article/west-munich-security-conference-doesnt-know-victory-in-ukraine/ https://www.politico.eu/article/west-munich-security-confere... https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com... https://archive.ph/4kbWG https://archive.ph/4kbWG https://archive.ph/HUyik https://archive.ph/HUyik https://archive.ph/Icahm https://archive.ph/Icahm
tim333 4y ago
There was zero chance that the generally peaceful and lightly armed EU was going to invade Russia with it's thousands of tanks and nuclear missiles. That argument is just bs Russia trots out to justify invading their neighbours.