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There are so many threads here. The reserve bank governor is deeply unpopular in the broader public because of 2021 comments he made about there being no intere
by chrishare 4y ago
There are so many threads here. The reserve bank governor is deeply unpopular in the broader public because of 2021 comments he made about there being no interest rate increases needed until 2024 [1]. As mentioned in the article, many companies are posting record profits, including supermarkets [2] - leaving low and middle income people hurting, and working more hours or side jobs. Those same people also face an adversarial rental housing market [3]. Competition, at least in this market, seems to be exerting very little downward pressure on prices for commodity goods. Buy-now-pay-later schemes continue to damage the poorest in our society - even big banks now make it easy to take on bad debt [4].
There are many challenges in Australia, but also opportunities to make things better.
[1] - https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/lowe-admits-embarrassing-error-on-2024-rate-rise-20220503-p5ai9e https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/lowe-admits-embarrassing-...
[2] - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-23/supermarket-profits-surge-as-inflation-spikes-coles-woolworths/102004616 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-23/supermarket-profits-s...
[3] - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-19/australias-rental-market-to-tighten-in-2023-2024/101860220 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-19/australias-rental-mar...
[4] - https://www.nab.com.au/personal/buy-now-pay-later https://www.nab.com.au/personal/buy-now-pay-later
- Grimburger 4y ago> The reserve bank governor is deeply unpopular Only 30% of people have mortgages, why should the remaining 70% care, many can even put money in savings accounts again after 15 years of them being basically worthless. He never said interest rates wouldn't rise either, he basically said they don't forecast the conditions that warrant a rise won't happen until then. Here's a pro-tip if you took on too much debt under the naive belief that 0.1% interest rates were the new norm, sell your overinflated assets and live debt free.
- chrishare 4y agoPeople who can't afford to buy get stuck with borrowing costs being passed on, anyway, and get trapped in rent spirals. I do agree that some of the criticism of Lowe is undeserved, though.
- Gigachad 4y agoRent rises are more the result of extremely low rental vacancies in Australia
- TheSpiceIsLife 4y agoDon't stop there. Extremely low rental vacancies are a result of? State governments, local governments, and property development, basically colluding to not build cheap and affordable high density housing.
- chii 4y ago> State governments, local governments, and property development, basically colluding to not build cheap and affordable high density housing. australian taxation is already one of the highest in the world. In order for the gov't to build affordable housing (high density or not), it would take even more tax revenue to pull off. I for one, will not want to pay more taxes. The free market works for food, so why not have it work for shelter? The key sticking point is zoning issues, and approvals. These decisions are made at the local (council) level, and the existing residents overwhelmingly dislike a high rise going up next to their house/backyard. The other issue is that a large portion of real estate buyers want land ownership - ala a house. The thought of living in an apartment is at best a stopgap for them. Therefore, the capital appreciation of an apartment is meager at best. This also causes chronic underinvestment in apartments (esp. quality ones), and exacerbates cheap, low quality shitboxes that people dont like much (and reinforces the idea that they don't want to live in an apartment in the long term).
- theteapot 4y ago> australian taxation is already one of the highest in the world. Where did you pull that from?
- chii 4y agohttps://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/highest-taxed-countries/ https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/highest-taxed-countri... Specifically i'm gonna call out income tax in australia : Income Tax Rate 45% Ranked in the World #17 > ... This means that Australians are paying a larger share of their wages in taxes compared with other countries.
- quitit 4y agoI think the core issue is that most people don't think of it as logically as you do. As you stated the right thing to do is to look at interest rates and not overexpose oneself to the effects of inevitable rate changes. How most people think about it: I can afford the monthly payment and it's cheaper than my rent. Let's do this. Fortunately banking laws in Australia prevent banks from granting loans to people that they can just barely afford. However despite this most people still don't have any savings or disposable income (When compared to similar "rich" economies, Australia has one of the lowest rates of personal savings in the world.) The result is that a lot of people will have to cut back and find their lifestyle significantly changed in order to keep their homes.
- firecall 4y ago> Only 30% of people have mortgages, why should the remaining 70% care Because the remaining 70% rent, with many wanting to own a property someday. Higher mortgages mean higher rent. Australia has very little social housing. Renting for families is an unpleasant experience. You can be forced to move with little warning, and finding a new rental in your area can be very difficult and sole destroying. So many would love to own if they could, if only for the stability it brings. We have many problems!
- brokenmachine 4y ago>Higher mortgages mean higher rent But lower mortgages also mean higher rent. I've never seen rent go down. Literally everything means higher rent. Go figure.
- firecall 4y agoPerhaps it is because that whilst mortgages were cheaper, due to lower interest rates, housing prices were actually rising rapidly.
- chrismorgan 4y agoABS figures from the 2021 census <https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-census/2021 https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-cen...>: 31.0% owned outright, 35.0% owned with a mortgage, 30.6% rented.
- firecall 4y agoThankyou! I just made an assumption :)
- Atsuii 4y agoIt's not 30% of people, it 35% of HOUSEHOLDS were home owners of the dwelling there were in on census night, with there being a total of 9.8 million 'households' in the country. A massive % of Australians working age population have 1 or more mortgages. Census dwelling data does not give an accurate picture of the number of Australians with mortgages. For example on my census our household reported that we rent the dwelling that we were in, because we do. We reported nothing about the mortgage we have on an apartment in the city that we moved out of 1 year earlier. According to that data point your using my household would be seemingly unaffected after interest rate rises outside of potential rent stress.
- saiya-jin 4y agoYou are not disproving his claims, 35% of the households being homeowners means absolutely nothing without knowing how many live as rentees for example. Also am I an houseowner if I paid 90% of the mortgage? 'Massive numbers' can mean anything between 0.01% and 99.8% depending on where you live, who are your friends and coworkers etc. All that being said, it sounds just like any other western country, or in fact any country in the world apart from very, very few. Welcome to 21st century, you have mostly FED to thank for this, everything else just snowballed in its bad decisions.
- firecall 4y agoAll very good points! We've had wage stagnation for ~15 years. I've long wondered what it is about our job market that keeps wages down whilst company profits continue to grow. Perhaps an unspoken collusion around wages, or maybe lack of salary growth in government jobs that in turn pushes the private sector. Lack of competition and choices is another issue, as is Australia's dispersion of cities. It's not straight forward for someone in Adelaide to take a job in Sydney that pays more. Workforce mobility certainly pays a part. When I lived in the UK, I took it for granted that you could commute to another major economic City for work, especially in the South. Because of wage stagnation, I see a major debt crises looming with BNPL and its old friend the credit card. It's a house of cards. Taking on more BNPL debt that is serviced with credit-cards is going to become a huge problem for Australians. I see a lot of people in my community that appear to be doing OK, but with mortgages that gone up over $1000 a month. People have little savings and live month to month, spending everything they have. Changing lifestyle and spending patterns doesnt come easily to people, and I see it as the slow boiling frog problem. They'll maintain their current lifestyles because they dont realise the spending and credit problem they have. Where is the extra money coming from to service their mortgages? Well, it's credit cards and BNPL. Which will slowly grow until they are in trouble. Maxed out limits on multiple BNPL schemes backed by multiple maxed out credit cards is going to create crippling debt levels. It may take 18 months to manifest, but I'm sure it will. I already know that many people in my community carry credit card debt month-to-month and I cant see how this is going to improve. It's not just those with Mortgages that are in trouble. Renters will be in serious trouble too as all those investment property mortgages have gone up too. Which means huge increases in weekly rents are starting to appear. The Australian subreddits are filled with irate renters. Just getting my thoughts down, and anything could happen I guess! :-)
- chrishare 4y agoIndeed. Basic finance sure would be a great addition to the high-school curriculum.
- chii 4y ago> It's not straight forward for someone in Adelaide to take a job in Sydney that pays more why isn't it straight forward? There's nothing stopping someone from interviewing (let's say, remotely) and accept a job in sydney while in adelaide, and then move when they secured the offer. There's some moving costs - but i would imagine it's going to be in the order of about 1-2 months of rent at most. Of course, if you have kids, with school and such, then you'd have a harder time.
- exodust 4y agoNAB - the big Australian bank that uses children in their ads, reading scripts in a grown-up manner about the importance of money: https://youtu.be/bk952JcRyok https://youtu.be/bk952JcRyok They've aired several ads like this using children to convince people that NAB is "more than money". On supermarket profits. I've noticed price-jacking has reached a new level. Seemingly in collaboration with the brands to deceive customers. For example, "50% off dishwasher tablets"... sounds good. But then you see the "normal" price they expect you to believe: $48 for a pack of 32 dishwasher tablets. That's AUD $1.50 per tablet / USD $2.23 per tablet. There's no chance dishwasher tablets cost anywhere near that much to make.
- TheSpiceIsLife 4y agoColes branded dishwasher powder works fine, $0.39 per 100 grams. The next cheapest is more than three times the price and doesn't do anything the Coles branded product doesn't.
- trog 4y agoColes brand has never worked for me. Try the Aldi tablets. They are very cheap and Choice scores them as the best.
- TheSpiceIsLife 4y agoI ran the numbers, looks like the Coles powered, which works fine for us on mains water no issues, is about 9 cents a wash, using less than 25 grabs powder at $0.39 per 100 grams. The powder goes in the doeser, plus a small amount in the main compartment so the first rinse cycle is doing a pre-wash. No Aldi here in Tas, but I'd have to break the tables to approach price competitive.
- Benjamin_Dobell 4y ago> That's AUD $1.50 per tablet / USD $2.23 per tablet I have no idea how much dishwasher tablets ought to cost, but you've applied the exchange rate in reverse. $1.50 AUD is currently about $1 USD.
- opportune 4y agoAustralia is addicted to property appreciation. They have thrown so much gas on the fire that it’s burning the rest of their economy. Canada is the same way. We’ll see what Australians think when they can’t live off HELOCs and retire based on purely owning some 70’s bungalow anymore.
- FpUser 4y agoNot sure about Australia but Canada would probably include being poor as good enough criteria to approve MAID at some point. Our fucking politicos are already tinkering with the idea doing it for mental people. What would prevent them from going further.
- mrjin 4y agoThis is actually true for most of the countries. The governments take the biggest cut through the whole process: 1. Sales 2. Approvals 3. Duties 4. Rates So the higher the prices, the higher their revenue would be. And the inflation caused by that would also in their favor as it virtually diminishes their liabilities. There is no better way of making quick money in short term for the governments, but it will for sure backfire at some point. Those politicians know that, but they cannot care less as long as it doesn't burst in their term.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago> As mentioned in the article, many companies are posting record profits It's easy to post record profits when dollars are worth 60 cents. How much have their margins gone up? Margins go up and down all the time.
- Khaine 4y agoBut record profits is non-sense. Profit goes up with inflation in nominal terms, so you need to compare real terms. From the article you pointed to: 'Mr Kierath said it was important to note the companies' profits fell in the last six months of 2021, so these results were rebounding off an unusually low base.' Ergo, they look good because they were depressed in the prior reporting season. Ergo, it's just corporations bashing, because people are mad inflation is going up. If you look at Woolworth's profits over time, it would look to be going back to normal levels[1] after a dip due to COVID. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116200/australia-net-profit-after-tax-woolworths-group/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116200/australia-net-pr...
- hackerforever 4y agoThis isn't convincing, why should company profits be immune from inflation but wages stagnate and fall below the rate of inflation as has happened this year? Corporations bashing is definitely warranted in this case.
- Khaine 4y agoBecause companies are profit making entities? They are going to do what they need to, to make a profit. Which is why when inputs rise, they typically pass those costs on to consumers. You will note that Dominos share price fell by ~30% because they noted that demand had been down as they tried to pass on the increased cost of inputs. If you are an investor, you will want a return on your capital. Would you invest in a business, where the return is lower than what you can get in a bond? If your profits fall too far, unless you can convince investors that its temporary, they are likely to withdraw their funds, and then your business will end. Prices are also less sticky than wages which means they rise and fall in response to supply and demand, whereas wages are more sticky.
- theteapot 4y ago> The reserve bank governor is deeply unpopular in the broader public because of 2021 comments he made about there being no interest rate increases needed until 2024 [1]. He never said that. Actual primary source -- https://archive.md/uE4g3 https://archive.md/uE4g3: > ... This is the basis for our assessment that the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024. That statement is preceded by quite a long analysis, and discussion. His assessment was wrong obviously. He deserves flak for not being wise enough to not make such a strong assertion. But ... he never said unequivocally "no increases until 2024". It's quite frustrating seeing the media bludgeon those words into his mouth.
- Khaine 4y agoThat's all our media do. Journalism is dead. Also, like all central banks, he was trying to jawbone to get the results he wants without having to induce the pain of the action required. Even this week, there was talk of 3 more interest rate rises. He is hoping this will cut spending, reduce demand, and drive down inflation so that the interest rate rises aren't required.