4 ms·

Companies are going to regret this in the next 5 years as baby boomers continue to retire and there's far fewer gen Z to replace them.

therealdrag0 4y ago
Why isn’t rehiring sufficient to avoid regret.
hef19898 4y ago
All those lay-offs, which are not really big in overall numbers and more a topic at places like HN because if the demographic hit, don't mean the people being layed off stop existing...
slimsag 4y ago
Why do you claim there are fewer gen-z to replace those who retire? Many of my coworkers and peers are millennials, and I personally also know large swaths of gen Z folks who are extremely technical, more and more people are pushed into tech as a career choice these days - much more than they were in past generations. Statistically it seems likely we're going to see more technically proficient people in younger generations due to more numbers of people in that generation having greater exposure to tech. Companies like Ericsson could have an issue with their tech not being the same tech that younger generations are learning, but I doubt that'll be a major problem in practice as people are eager to learn and rewrite things with newer exciting tech.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- lgleason 4y ago
  My natural reaction to that statement is that this is a subjective statement to say that one generation is more knowledgable than another. Those who are younger may tend to be more gung-ho, but given the lack of experience those who are younger have, more knowledgable may not be accurate. That said it might be that the perception is that a more gung-ho person is more knowledgable but perception and reality are not always the same.
  - slimsag 4y ago
    I edit'd my comment (after I saw you say it appeared ageist); that's not what I intended and I can see how it came across that way (esp in the context of layoffs) - there are definitely going to be technically proficient people across all age ranges and I am firmly against ageism. It'd be a mistake to think baby boomers are irreplaceable by younger generations though (what OP suggested.) I believe we will see more technically proficient people in younger generations statistically due to more people in that group being exposed to tech. Not that they will be better necessarily. Not many of my peers in school were learning tech, for example, but a good majority of those I talk to now say their kids are learning to go into tech. This is in Arizona, with random people, Uber drivers, etc. so not exactly a tech hub where it'd be very expected.
    - lgleason 4y ago
      Cool! I took down my initial ageist comment right after I posted it because I didn't want to be too harsh and get into an un-intended flame war over something that you may not have meant. More people are going into tech as technology eats the world and people see that there are opportunities here. It is also becoming a required skill for a lot of trades such as working on cars, home automation systems, security systems, HVAC, appliance repair etc.. While more experienced people may be able to bring more value in many cases, often management does not see that and does the penny-wise, pound foolish thing. I have seen that happen a lot. Be it good, bad or indifferent, company owners are looking to make our skills more fungible so that they can drive those costs down. Also, hiring younger workers often translates into lower salaries. This is why no matter how irreplaceable people may feel they are, they are often not as irreplacable as they think they are.
- bcrosby95 4y ago
  I guess it depends upon what you mean. If you're talking electrical and mechanical tech, I'm not so sure. If you're talking software, then yeah, the software industry has exploded over the past 20 years. But I think that could be a problem rather than a boon: part of me wonders if non-software-engineering engineering is going to face huge problems in the future. Software salaries have really sucked the air out of the other industries, and software doesn't matter without amazing hardware to back it up.
  - slimsag 4y ago
    I 1000% agree with you; both my parents were aerospace engineers and when they were going through college that was what everyone was pushed to choose as a career; nowadays it's tech (software) - so I see that problem very clearly. (in my message above, "tech" refers to software tech, it's an overloaded term so I normally refer to electrical/mechanical engineering just as that)
    - kungito 4y ago
      Everyone was pushed into aerospace? Sounds like a small industry for everyone to be pushed into. Maybe it's a city with an aerospace company or something
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  > Why do you claim there are fewer gen-z to replace those who retire? Math? While gen Z is larger in absolute numbers, baby boomers were a much larger overall percentage of the population at the time they were born. Thus, there is still a large bump in the population pyramid that is retiring en mass. > Statistically it seems likely we're going to see more technically proficient people in younger generations due to more numbers of people in that generation having greater exposure to tech. While I don't know what official statistics say, "being able to use an iPad" does not make one technically proficient. There have been a bunch of articles recently (some on the front page of HN) about how much of gen Z is completely unprepared for the technical workforce because they don't know how anything works under the covers. They don't know how to find files on a filesystem, they don't know how to debug computer issues, they don't know how to use spreadsheets, etc. They can of course learn to do this stuff, but the trend of dumbing down technology so it's a black box makes people less able to succeed technologically, not more. I may have bitched as a kid to no end to figure out how to edit config.sys or autoexec.bat to run some game, but it did teach me skills about how to dig deeper when I hit a roadblock.
  - antegamisou 4y ago
    Yeah I have no idea how did OP came up with Gen Z being ubiquitous in highly technical roles like the ones people at Ericsson affected by the layoffs hold. Virtually all developer jobs today anywhere in the world are strictly limited to webdev. But then we’re on HN, where Backend and DevOps is probably what are considered technical pinnacles.
  - nineteen999 4y ago
    Unfortunately we are shovelling so much in at the top of the stack these days, that while the foundations change much more slowly, there is just so much more to learn. And let's face it, low level or systems programming is just not as attractive and "shiny" as the latest web tech fad or creating a AI/crypto web startup, so I can see why the younger generations go for that instead of the foundational stuff, even if it's dissapointing. Some of us old-timers are very happy digging around in the basement levels while the web stack grows ever upward.
Giorgi 4y ago
Highly doubt that, automatization and bots are replacing most of the jobs on scary speeds
calvinmorrison 4y ago
It's a catch 22. I feel like salaries skyrocket for the top end of people who caught the wave, are already senior programmers, while low level work gets farmed out to india or even if it's not - it's really hard to train junior developers without hands on face to face time like we had in offices.
- collaborative 4y ago
  I am currently training a junior dev. We only see each other every other week for a few hours. His motivation is all that matters imo. He is learning very fast
  - calvinmorrison 4y ago
    I have a jr developer right now and I find it hard to co-write code or do reviews sometimes compared to 'let me roll my chair over' type of situation.
    - collaborative 4y ago
      Perhaps remote learning requires skill and attitude that prevent you from needing someone to frequently co-write code. I don't have much time to spare so I will only co-write code when the jr dev is literally stuck. The rest of the time I give general guidance and let him figure it out - " improve logging here, consume less resources here by doing xyz, improve readability, optionally use advanced pattern to help you out, etc ". I try to give an example of what I mean each time. Each time he cracks things he grows in confidence and motivation
myth_drannon 4y ago
They will hire in India or bring workers from India. You are being naive thinking gen Z will have any power to influence policies. 600$ for a spot with matress in a hallway to sleep and salary half of the locals, you have millions clamoring for that.
- honkler 4y ago
  And more and more corporations would turn into dust with that kind of workforce. This is the fate of the west. Look at what happened to Intel, oracle, IBM etc which hired these H1B "coders" and middle management. I'm not complaining, just observing.
  - myth_drannon 4y ago
    I don't think there is correlation between hiring cheaper and a corporation doing worse. The fact is these people are as smart as the rest if not smarter(they had fierce competition), definetely hardworking and motivated(make less, sleep on the floor and send the rest of the money back to family). It's just the great equalization and dissapearance of middle class in western countries.
    - honkler 4y ago
      Fierce competition does not mean something is good. There's fierce competition for bread that volunteers hand out of UNICEF trucks into a crowd of hungry, desolate people. Neither does that make the bread tasty, nor the winners "smarter". >definetely hardworking and motivated. Disagree. My experience, generally speaking, has been that they do not pay attention to detail, and are not that smart. Even though they might be motivated to keep the job, and they do make great corporate drones, but they do not come anywhere near what it takes to make successful product.
- pkaye 4y ago
  Do you mean Ericsson will hires Indians to work in Europe for cheap?

therealdrag0 4y ago

Why isn’t rehiring sufficient to avoid regret.

hef19898 4y ago

All those lay-offs, which are not really big in overall numbers and more a topic at places like HN because if the demographic hit, don't mean the people being layed off stop existing...

slimsag 4y ago

Why do you claim there are fewer gen-z to replace those who retire? Many of my coworkers and peers are millennials, and I personally also know large swaths of gen Z folks who are extremely technical, more and more people are pushed into tech as a career choice these days - much more than they were in past generations. Statistically it seems likely we're going to see more technically proficient people in younger generations due to more numbers of people in that generation having greater exposure to tech. Companies like Ericsson could have an issue with their tech not being the same tech that younger generations are learning, but I doubt that'll be a major problem in practice as people are eager to learn and rewrite things with newer exciting tech.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
lgleason 4y ago
My natural reaction to that statement is that this is a subjective statement to say that one generation is more knowledgable than another. Those who are younger may tend to be more gung-ho, but given the lack of experience those who are younger have, more knowledgable may not be accurate. That said it might be that the perception is that a more gung-ho person is more knowledgable but perception and reality are not always the same.
- slimsag 4y ago
  I edit'd my comment (after I saw you say it appeared ageist); that's not what I intended and I can see how it came across that way (esp in the context of layoffs) - there are definitely going to be technically proficient people across all age ranges and I am firmly against ageism. It'd be a mistake to think baby boomers are irreplaceable by younger generations though (what OP suggested.) I believe we will see more technically proficient people in younger generations statistically due to more people in that group being exposed to tech. Not that they will be better necessarily. Not many of my peers in school were learning tech, for example, but a good majority of those I talk to now say their kids are learning to go into tech. This is in Arizona, with random people, Uber drivers, etc. so not exactly a tech hub where it'd be very expected.
  - lgleason 4y ago
    Cool! I took down my initial ageist comment right after I posted it because I didn't want to be too harsh and get into an un-intended flame war over something that you may not have meant. More people are going into tech as technology eats the world and people see that there are opportunities here. It is also becoming a required skill for a lot of trades such as working on cars, home automation systems, security systems, HVAC, appliance repair etc.. While more experienced people may be able to bring more value in many cases, often management does not see that and does the penny-wise, pound foolish thing. I have seen that happen a lot. Be it good, bad or indifferent, company owners are looking to make our skills more fungible so that they can drive those costs down. Also, hiring younger workers often translates into lower salaries. This is why no matter how irreplaceable people may feel they are, they are often not as irreplacable as they think they are.
bcrosby95 4y ago
I guess it depends upon what you mean. If you're talking electrical and mechanical tech, I'm not so sure. If you're talking software, then yeah, the software industry has exploded over the past 20 years. But I think that could be a problem rather than a boon: part of me wonders if non-software-engineering engineering is going to face huge problems in the future. Software salaries have really sucked the air out of the other industries, and software doesn't matter without amazing hardware to back it up.
- slimsag 4y ago
  I 1000% agree with you; both my parents were aerospace engineers and when they were going through college that was what everyone was pushed to choose as a career; nowadays it's tech (software) - so I see that problem very clearly. (in my message above, "tech" refers to software tech, it's an overloaded term so I normally refer to electrical/mechanical engineering just as that)
  - kungito 4y ago
    Everyone was pushed into aerospace? Sounds like a small industry for everyone to be pushed into. Maybe it's a city with an aerospace company or something
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
> Why do you claim there are fewer gen-z to replace those who retire? Math? While gen Z is larger in absolute numbers, baby boomers were a much larger overall percentage of the population at the time they were born. Thus, there is still a large bump in the population pyramid that is retiring en mass. > Statistically it seems likely we're going to see more technically proficient people in younger generations due to more numbers of people in that generation having greater exposure to tech. While I don't know what official statistics say, "being able to use an iPad" does not make one technically proficient. There have been a bunch of articles recently (some on the front page of HN) about how much of gen Z is completely unprepared for the technical workforce because they don't know how anything works under the covers. They don't know how to find files on a filesystem, they don't know how to debug computer issues, they don't know how to use spreadsheets, etc. They can of course learn to do this stuff, but the trend of dumbing down technology so it's a black box makes people less able to succeed technologically, not more. I may have bitched as a kid to no end to figure out how to edit config.sys or autoexec.bat to run some game, but it did teach me skills about how to dig deeper when I hit a roadblock.
- antegamisou 4y ago
  Yeah I have no idea how did OP came up with Gen Z being ubiquitous in highly technical roles like the ones people at Ericsson affected by the layoffs hold. Virtually all developer jobs today anywhere in the world are strictly limited to webdev. But then we’re on HN, where Backend and DevOps is probably what are considered technical pinnacles.
- nineteen999 4y ago
  Unfortunately we are shovelling so much in at the top of the stack these days, that while the foundations change much more slowly, there is just so much more to learn. And let's face it, low level or systems programming is just not as attractive and "shiny" as the latest web tech fad or creating a AI/crypto web startup, so I can see why the younger generations go for that instead of the foundational stuff, even if it's dissapointing. Some of us old-timers are very happy digging around in the basement levels while the web stack grows ever upward.

Giorgi 4y ago

Highly doubt that, automatization and bots are replacing most of the jobs on scary speeds

calvinmorrison 4y ago

It's a catch 22. I feel like salaries skyrocket for the top end of people who caught the wave, are already senior programmers, while low level work gets farmed out to india or even if it's not - it's really hard to train junior developers without hands on face to face time like we had in offices.

collaborative 4y ago
I am currently training a junior dev. We only see each other every other week for a few hours. His motivation is all that matters imo. He is learning very fast
- calvinmorrison 4y ago
  I have a jr developer right now and I find it hard to co-write code or do reviews sometimes compared to 'let me roll my chair over' type of situation.
  - collaborative 4y ago
    Perhaps remote learning requires skill and attitude that prevent you from needing someone to frequently co-write code. I don't have much time to spare so I will only co-write code when the jr dev is literally stuck. The rest of the time I give general guidance and let him figure it out - " improve logging here, consume less resources here by doing xyz, improve readability, optionally use advanced pattern to help you out, etc ". I try to give an example of what I mean each time. Each time he cracks things he grows in confidence and motivation

myth_drannon 4y ago

They will hire in India or bring workers from India. You are being naive thinking gen Z will have any power to influence policies. 600$ for a spot with matress in a hallway to sleep and salary half of the locals, you have millions clamoring for that.

honkler 4y ago
And more and more corporations would turn into dust with that kind of workforce. This is the fate of the west. Look at what happened to Intel, oracle, IBM etc which hired these H1B "coders" and middle management. I'm not complaining, just observing.
- myth_drannon 4y ago
  I don't think there is correlation between hiring cheaper and a corporation doing worse. The fact is these people are as smart as the rest if not smarter(they had fierce competition), definetely hardworking and motivated(make less, sleep on the floor and send the rest of the money back to family). It's just the great equalization and dissapearance of middle class in western countries.
  - honkler 4y ago
    Fierce competition does not mean something is good. There's fierce competition for bread that volunteers hand out of UNICEF trucks into a crowd of hungry, desolate people. Neither does that make the bread tasty, nor the winners "smarter". >definetely hardworking and motivated. Disagree. My experience, generally speaking, has been that they do not pay attention to detail, and are not that smart. Even though they might be motivated to keep the job, and they do make great corporate drones, but they do not come anywhere near what it takes to make successful product.
pkaye 4y ago
Do you mean Ericsson will hires Indians to work in Europe for cheap?