5 ms·

Counter arguing the central point: AI will be terrible for capitalists, and great for most others. Reason being, the surplus value created by AI is hard to defe

Counter arguing the central point: AI will be terrible for capitalists, and great for most others. Reason being, the surplus value created by AI is hard to defend (e.g. models and trade secrets seem to leak out on a 1-2 year timescale). Anything that requires Google scale in 2-3 years will only need iPhone scale. This will lead to hardcore deflation too fast for capitalism to escape, which will be passed on to consumers in the form of surplus discretionary spending income.

simple-thoughts 4y ago
If you’re correct, the policy response will be a return to zero interest rate policies and QE, to guarantee that the rate of money creation prevents price deflation. This would result in a massive increase in the monetary price of goods such as real estate, stocks, and nfts. The benefits would primarily go to owners of these assets - whether the owners are public or private will vary from country to country.
- SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
  There is always war, don’t discount that.
romeros 4y ago
Exactly. Imagine every macbook pro/iphone coming up with the open source models preinstalled out of the gate. You don't even need to query google or even see ads. You would have a nightly update that transfers the diffs of the latest news etc.
nemothekid 4y ago
This doesn't seem like an effective counterpoint to me; it feels like, to put it harshly, the same sort of conjecture crypto enthusiasts use to point out how Bitcoin will be used to fight the man. The average american is now way more productive but those gains they thought we would get with the advent of the computer (4 day work weeks, 5 hour days) never came; instead Americans work the same, produce more, but get a fewer piece of the pie. If anything I expect these trends to continue as AI becomes more commonplace. In other words, why is this time different?
- XorNot 4y ago
  Isn't the better question "why is this time unique?" The problem isn't new, it's always existed as a pathology of American society. You already have been trading away the gains of technological improvement to an ever shrinking group of people in control of capital. AI isn't creating a new problem, it's a reminder of an old one. Which should make it clear that even bothering to talk about AI specifically is talking about the wrong issue.
- chii 4y ago
  > but get a fewer piece of the pie i dont think that's true. The average wealth has grown, and even if you didn't get wage growth, the availability of things you could buy with said wage has grown (which is in and of itself a form of wealth).
  - nemothekid 4y ago
    >i dont think that's true. American productivity/wage gap isn't particularly controversial, it's well documented. >The average wealth has grown Globally yes, but as far as Americans are concerned they largely didn't see their wealth grow as the "Elephant curve" [2] shows. A lot of the wealth growth happened in China and India. >the availability of things you could buy with said wage has grown "You'll own nothing. And you'll be happy" is pretty much what you are saying here. The price of real assets has grown tremendously, but at least you can buy a 60" flatscreen TV for $100. [1] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ [2] https://www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/elephant-curve-world-inequality https://www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/elephant-curve-world-...
sp527 4y ago
"Let them eat AI models on their devices"

simple-thoughts 4y ago

If you’re correct, the policy response will be a return to zero interest rate policies and QE, to guarantee that the rate of money creation prevents price deflation. This would result in a massive increase in the monetary price of goods such as real estate, stocks, and nfts. The benefits would primarily go to owners of these assets - whether the owners are public or private will vary from country to country.

SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
There is always war, don’t discount that.

romeros 4y ago

Exactly. Imagine every macbook pro/iphone coming up with the open source models preinstalled out of the gate. You don't even need to query google or even see ads. You would have a nightly update that transfers the diffs of the latest news etc.

nemothekid 4y ago

This doesn't seem like an effective counterpoint to me; it feels like, to put it harshly, the same sort of conjecture crypto enthusiasts use to point out how Bitcoin will be used to fight the man. The average american is now way more productive but those gains they thought we would get with the advent of the computer (4 day work weeks, 5 hour days) never came; instead Americans work the same, produce more, but get a fewer piece of the pie. If anything I expect these trends to continue as AI becomes more commonplace. In other words, why is this time different?

XorNot 4y ago
Isn't the better question "why is this time unique?" The problem isn't new, it's always existed as a pathology of American society. You already have been trading away the gains of technological improvement to an ever shrinking group of people in control of capital. AI isn't creating a new problem, it's a reminder of an old one. Which should make it clear that even bothering to talk about AI specifically is talking about the wrong issue.
chii 4y ago
> but get a fewer piece of the pie i dont think that's true. The average wealth has grown, and even if you didn't get wage growth, the availability of things you could buy with said wage has grown (which is in and of itself a form of wealth).
- nemothekid 4y ago
  >i dont think that's true. American productivity/wage gap isn't particularly controversial, it's well documented. >The average wealth has grown Globally yes, but as far as Americans are concerned they largely didn't see their wealth grow as the "Elephant curve" [2] shows. A lot of the wealth growth happened in China and India. >the availability of things you could buy with said wage has grown "You'll own nothing. And you'll be happy" is pretty much what you are saying here. The price of real assets has grown tremendously, but at least you can buy a 60" flatscreen TV for $100. [1] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ [2] https://www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/elephant-curve-world-inequality https://www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/elephant-curve-world-...

sp527 4y ago

"Let them eat AI models on their devices"